Member Info for iWantThatOne

Bimini, I’m more confident we’ll hear of progress before the summer: “As the Company enters the final phase of commissioning the LIGHT system at 230MeV during the summer, it will provide further updates to the market on progress.” This from the March update RNS.

I see the resolution that was heavily voted against was that to remove a cap of £150k for NED's annual remuneration. AFC claimed this was necessary because of market pressures. WHAT?? Is that a typo - does it mean £15k? In my limited experience NEDs get tens of £000s per year for a day or two's work per month.

So Pasofino's mcap is C$32m, or £20m. That'd be 5p per share for HUM's half of the project, which I suggest isn't in the current share price. Likely to go up a little when the DFS is published, I'd have thought, though I don't know how much. Pasofino currently valued at about US$16.5 per oz (i.e. the 1.6m).

Separately, I wonder what a private equity business would make of HUM and what it might be worth on break-up? Sell each of the three mines off to third parties for a nice little profit......

I wonder if the news blackout is due to two things: a) the MIMDAS /IP survey has suggested tweaking the site of drill pads, necessitating going back to the authorities. And b) waiting for Fairbride to start generating income to pay for the drilling?

For all the doom and gloom around delays, this company has an mcap of not much over £100m. Simply from a value investing point of view, if you believe the tech will work then I suggest this is a bargain.

Anyone else think that these have already been approved and Xtract is happily drilling away? It seems hard to believe that the regulators have taken weeks longer than usual to authorise these. I wouldn’t be surprised if CB tells us tomorrow that they’ve been drilling away for the past week. Alternatively, perhaps there’s been some push back and the drill pads haven’t all been approved?

Interesting to see the existing electric construction machinery and their net zero claims. Er, only if the grid that recharges the batteries is renewable energy-based. Of course AFC’s solutions are only as green as the hydrogen or other fuel that goes in. Which has the greater claim?

Surprised by today’s announcement but very pleased. Some years back AFC was supposedly against small sub-10kW units for telephone masts etc. I can only assume these were brought into the product roadmap based on feedback from the construction and perhaps some rental hire companies - Altaaqa included. Agree with others that this opens up a whole new world of opportunities, subject to price and ease of topping up with methanol. The Twitter announcement also says it can run on ammonia, which it can’t - so an AEM version also due later? Or perhaps just poorly written, as is their wont.

I think this also brings us into direct competition with other fuel cell companies who offer 10kW modular units. I may be wrong but don’t Ceres have the same? More research needed.

I have to say I don’t see DB wanting to sell HUM’s share of Dugbe for a measly £50m or so. Its share of capex will be just over £200m, of which 60% (say) would be debt. The remaining £80m could come from the first 18m’s production from Koroussa. DB’s ambition will not allow him to sell up.

Good interview (especially the update on Africa) but STILL there are questions about BR. “I don’t know if we have 5,6 or 700mt” he said. Well if he doesn’t know that, nor all the assays, how can he be confident about 2Mt? But if he does intend to present AA with the data pack in April/May then he must be confident. Why else would he open discussions? Unless it’d be to say “we’ve got a definite 1.5 (say), and we’re still drilling RC to the south and Ascot - but I thought we should give you the data so you can start thinking as we continue our drilling”. It sounds a bit half-****ed to me, either way - like he’s desperate to sell out when the job’s only half done.

Facevalue01, I’ve built my own simple NPV model for Bushranger, as I’m sure others have. As you say, there are so many variables that it’s difficult to draw any sensible conclusions yet - the results are obviously very sensitive to assumptions such as strip ratios. What I would say is that Caravel Minerals near Perth is very similar to BR (1.86m tonnes Cu @ 0.28%), more advanced, and their NPV is US$1.0bn. I’ve managed to replicate that figure very closely. In my view, a buyer could not pay more than $250-300m before the financial metrics (especially IRR) become too low. For BR, that would equate to c18-22p. BR may ultimately contain more copper, but then Caravel does have low strip ratios. Clearly there’s a lot of moving parts and subjectivity here. Ascot and an extended Racecourse could completely change the picture. All IMO.

Very happy with today’s RNS, another partner lined up. This one has taken 5 months to come to fruition so one can understand why few of the “50” are yet public. Whilst I agree the diesel genset hire companies are the ultimate customers to influence, I can see the engineering / construction companies buying a few fuel cell systems direct in the first instance just to get moving. And then the dam will burst and we’ll see multiple orders cascading down.

Those published revenue figures look very cautious to me, given historic growth in EUS and that Bango Audiences / licensing revenue should be growing strongly. Even allowing got some slowdown in payments growth. I suspect they’ve been set to be broken.

On the other hand, I could easily see some good SP movement this month - e.g. early info back from the MIMDAS surveys, which could indicate good extension to RC and more: drill pads approved any day, with new holes to be drilled right away; and (hopefully) notification of visual id of mineralisation. I could see a lot of investors getting comfort from indications that RC is noticeably bigger than currently.

We know where we are with Julich, no mystery here. From the December update: “ Strong engagement with Forschungszentrum Julich ("Julich") in new product roadmap with review of system requirements for their Living Lab Energy Campus showcase in Germany.” So pretty soon we should know whether they want the HFC or the full-fat S series.

The reason why orders haven’t been forthcoming is clear from that one phrase - customers have taken the opportunity to “leapfrog” to the next technology development that better suits their needs. That’s groundbreaking technology, I guess - never goes in a straight line. But it certainly looks like by year-end the products will be bang on, with multiple large customers lined up. AFC’s competitive advantages look compelling. And I like the one-liner about the AEM having been validated in electrolyser mode - though surely “fuel-flex” and low cost advantages disappear when running in electrolyser mode?

Commitment to “hundreds of millions of $ revenue”, c.f. current $20m. Sounds good. I expect steady increases every year from Bango, it’s a great hold for a SIPP.

Will the tonnage from the holes today already be in the 71Mt JORC (being within the RC perimeter drilled by AA) or will some of it be extra? (Obvs the bit between .15% and previous higher cut-off, but more?).

I don’t know what the current crisis is doing to ammonia or methanol costs but the significant increase in diesel costs could be a big reason to move to AFC’s fuel cells. Mining companies are benefitting from big increases in commodity prices but these are significantly offset by the diesel costs.

I’ve found something that suggests a 1MW diesel generator typically uses 259 litres per hour on a full load. That’s $2.6m per MW working 365/24 and using those Mali prices. What’s Yanfolila’s power requirement - 10MW? If so that’d be $26m pa. The point remains valid, that’s a significant percentage of total costs.