Member Info for iWantThatOne

I think the market may have misunderstood the progress the company has made. Whilst the results show a widening loss, they don’t yet reflect the majority of the synergy savings from the Docomo deal, nor the bulk of the additional revenue that will come from that in 2023. Add in organic growth and this year should see excellent results. I’d like to see analysts’ expectations for the year.

StanAccy, you troll, it was an example. Tech shares can and do experience wild swings due to sentiment. FWIW, and using your words, AFC Energy had no sales, no track record of production, was over a year away from income, and had no published roadmap to profitability. It needed funding. And still it grew by many multiples. As I’m confident AVO will.

Btw, in case you didn’t know, everyone already expects dilution and isn’t particularly worried about it. An extra 200m shares at 25p brings in £50m. The 200m warrants will bring in £50m. That’s £100m to develop the business and still leaves the NPV at over £1 per share. Who’s worried? Not me.

I’m sure I’ve said this before but AFC Energy dropped to 3p at one point - great IP but Mcap £20m - before recovering to its current sp of 20p and mcap of £150m. And it went a lot higher than that. Share price is mostly sentiment. Be ready to buy in when the company announces successful fundraising and we’ll make our fortunes - IMO.

Agreed Vanilla. I think you or someone else said the company should have had a fundraising ready to go as soon as they hit the 230MeV milestone and with hindsight this looks a huge missed opportunity. Raising £20m, say, at 25p at that time (the actual sp was low 20’s) would have avoided a lot of anxiety.

Unfortunately I think the company made a massive c*ck-up by saying it needed to raise £75-85m over two years, without any clarity on the quantum and timing of that capital. If they’d said “we need £20m+ for normal operational costs in 2023 - and that’ll get us to first patient treatment - then the challenge seems much more achievable. Then “On top of that we need to refinance the $30m Nerano Pharma loan, which was secured against the IP in 2020 and will now be secured against the totality of the IP including what we’ve developed in the last three years” - well that also sounds perfectly achievable. Next year can take care of itself, as by then we’ll also have regulatory certification and some orders.

In the meantime the sp reflects the apparent risks of raising this capital (IMO), and has been taken advantage of by wealthier investors who placed large purchase orders at lower and lower prices. Now, buying levels are too low to get it back up again. However capital raising events will massively derisk the situation and the sp should shoot up (again IMO). I’ve also been buying, as I simply don’t believe the capital can’t be raised.

Alwaysone - same principle but that looks like a factory where bulk ammonia goes in and hydrogen comes out into tankers to be transported away. Quite different from a portable ammonia cracker connected to a fuel cell in a remote location.

True but they can call a GM to seek agreement to alter the nominal value and issue new shares at a new, lower price - which I’m sure would be an absolute last resort.

I was looking again at the loan repayments that are due in ‘23 and 24 and presumably form part of the total £75-85m funding requirement. The main one is $30m repayable 29/6/23 to Nerano Pharama, wholly owned by Seamus Mulligan - significant shareholder and supporter. There’s also a €20m loan from VDL Groep, but drawdowns there relate only to fulfilling purchase orders - so possibly none of this has been drawn down. The VDL drawdowns would be repayable after three years - so possibly from June 2023 but unlikely IMO.

So it’s possible that the funding requirements are roughly £25m to Nerano (June ‘23); £3m to the French lender (done); the usual c£25m normal running costs in ‘23 (£5m raised to date via the CLN); and roughly the same in ‘24.

The fact that Seamus Mulligan is a big supporter gives me a little comfort - perhaps he would extend for a year? And if not, the terms also allow him to turn the debt into equity at 25p per share. Which would be ok.

And £20m running costs still to fund in ‘23, of which £10m might (might!) possibly be secured through the very attractive CLN.....well, this doesn’t seem to me to be an insuperable problem.

I think you’re right, Stuartrm, but we were told yesterday the Response Document would be up on Kape’s website by noon today. Still no sign! V poor.

Also let’s be clear that no investor could put a meaningful amount of money into the company at the current 4p because the buying pressure would move the offer price up by multiples. They’d only get that if the company really had no choice to a placing at the current price due to not being able to get any investment from anywhere else.

Max, whilst they are committed to buying shares in December at more than six times the current SP, they are more than adequately compensated by a huge amount of income for ten years from the Harley Street operation, even if the current sp doesn’t increase. Really it was a no- brainer for them, provided they believe the company will survive and prosper. Which clearly they do.

I opened today’s RNS with great excitement hoping to see they’d raised another £10m under the CLN. No such luck! Yet. But they’re clearly trying, so fingers crossed for the next six weeks.

Management believes it will be doing revenue of >$100m at some point. It doesn’t need anything like that to justify an sp of 350p (=mcap of just £250m or so). As long as it keeps delivering, I can see myself happily holding these babies for years.

A year or so ago I remember HUM being one of the top tips for a takeover bid - can’t quite remember where. This must still be the case, surely - even more so, perhaps. Once Kor is in production and Yan has settled down - say six months time - then I could see potential buyers being very interested. Let HUM deal with the current risks then swoop in on it.

We were told that the Non-Execs would write to shareholders with their detailed view of the offer. Still waiting.......

Aha! That 621,500 share purchase at 4.75p must have been being filled for several days to only get that price. They want your shares and they’re prepared to drop the price to get them. At some point, though, they’ll change tack and suddenly increase the price to attract new buyers/sellers.

At this time of year we also get Bed&ISAs, with the same number of shares traded at the same time at fractionally different prices. I’ve seen a few for AVO, and both the sale and repurchase are shown as sales (more often than both buys).

Anyway, what’s going on here again today? Few transactions of note but the price is down. Possible the MMs have pulled it down to scare more investors into selling to facilitate a big purchase.

Ah right, you were referring to the post-tax loss. I didn’t scroll down the page before replying. Ok but in terms of cash generation it’s a machine. PAT is significantly dragged down by the amortization on recent acquisitions, as well as the tax charge. Continued growth and a slower pace of acquisitions should lead to a sizeable increase in PAT.

Net loss making? Eh? Profit before tax of $14m+ for the year just gone.

Don’t the Kor debt repayments commence only after one year? (Or at the start of the next calendar year - I can’t quite recall). Either way, I think no repayments are due for a quite some time. We also have Dugbe, which (if sold) will reduce the net debt to a very manageable figure.

Thanks to all those who’ll be seeking to shine more light on this sad episode at the GM. I’m sure you’ve got it covered but I just want to know a) what alternative sources of funding were sought and b) why - given the disastrous dilutive effect - the BoD thought it was a good idea to raise more than absolutely necessary via an open offer and from an institutional investor? And c), why is it so important to accelerate drilling at Kor? The decision-making seems all over the place.