Member Info for iWantThatOne

Excellent prezzer, really enthused after that.

As we’ve often said, in the final resort it must be possible to raise some equity capital on AIM, though it may be at 5p or whatever (after the necessary EGM etc). Given the noises the company is making, I imagine they’d work on their own NASDAQ listing during the period immediately after such a raise, so they can raise the next tranche over there - if no partner emerges. Even modest amounts (£15m?) might be enough to get to regulatory approval and first patient treatment, and then surely the SP will rise significantly.

Note the words used - “Previously achieving a world first in accelerating protons in a linear manner to reach clinical energy levels validated the talent, dedication and skill of our team. That this has not been reflected in the market value of our Company speaks volumes about the market for early stage medtech stocks in our current jurisdiction. Your Board is determined to address this challenging paradox." Sounds to me like “Stuff you, AIM market and UK - we’re going to list on NASDAQ”. Anyway, good news for now.

Just like Odey, Nerano Pharma - being a shareholder above a certain threshold - must declare its interest in the company at the start of the offer period. So yes, same as Odey and just a formality.

Agri - I don’t believe I do need to net up - the Egyptian Gov takes 50% from CEY but Mali currently takes only 10% in respect of Yan, with an option to take that to 20%. Can’t remember about Guinea but think it’s similar. So quite different situations.

Yes I get what you’re saying about price to book ratios etc. but CEY is in a fairly stable, developed position whereas HUM has lots to do to get to a similar state. I don’t think you can easily compare the two on that basis. Dugbe will look (and be valued as) a completely different beast once up and running. Ditto Kor. Whatever way you look at it, HUM has lots of value it can add whereas CEY has less (IMO). So either way I agree with you - HUM looks the better risk-adjusted investment right now.

Interesting comparison with CEY, which has c250k ozs net at c$1350 AISC with a LOM of 10 years+, as well as exploration potential. If Dugbe were in production then HUM’s output could approach the 250k ozs - 100k each from Dugbe (51% owner) and Kor, less from Yan, and then netted down by 10-20% for the royalties to the respective governments. However the LOMs are an issue - Dugbe is 14 years but a lot of exploration is required at Kor to vastly increase theirs (DB alluded to this recently). Yan’s LOM is also going to be less than ten years from here. Dugbe would also require cash flows (after Kor debt repayments) from the next couple of years to be invested there. With the right strategic decisions though, and perfect execution, it’s not inconceivable that HUM could grow to be CEY-like. With an mcap of £1.25bn I think CEY is fully (if not over-) valued. But could HUM grow to, say, half that? Maybe not out of the question.

That's not right, SCC06, that looks like a form Odey is required to complete as part of the Takeover Code's rules. As a significant existing shareholder, Odey is required to disclose its holding at the start of an offer period, which we're now in. It's absolutely not a disclosure that Odey bought almost 10% of the share capital around 18th April. They have been supporters of the company for a long time.

New product roadmap. New distribution strategy. New CEO. Not much changing then. I hope the new CEO will be someone who has vast experience in distribution - if they can crack that then the products should speak for themselves. But it looks like a long road ahead.

From what I understand this does not necessarily mean any offer has been received. The Form 8 (OPD) (Opening Position Disclosure) is a standard form that must be published at the start of an offer period (which we already know AVO is in).

Just like at the end of Feb, when the strangely-constructed CLN came to the rescue apparently as funds were about to run out, I wonder if the Board is deliberately waiting to see if other sources of funding - namely a debt package that I hope is being worked on - are finalised just in time? That might explain why it all seems to be last minute. Just speculating.

Stuart, I can safely say something has gone wrong with those IC figures. With 77m shares in issue, EPS of >£5 per share would be £385m. In fact cash profits are estimated by Singer to be $12m, or about 12p per share. So EPS would be less.

I expect the CLNs would be bought out in a takeover situation. No buyer would want a small subset of investors to retain control over a ten year stream of income from one treatment centre. In fact I think this may be true even if there’s no takeover - at some point the CLNs will be swapped for something simpler of broadly equivalent value.

*with a bang*!

Solid rather than spectacular results IMO, with a continuation of good revenue etc figures in a softening market.

Good insights from the AGM as to why the sp isn’t higher - funds selling off CNIC (amongst others) to provide liquidity as investors take cash out, not helped by CNIC being one of the more liquid stocks. Sounds like growth in the sp will return with a bank once money returns to large cap tech stocks, followed by mid-caps such as CNIC. Just a case of building a position in readiness.

Although I’m using calendar years rather than end-Q1-end-Q1, revenue for 2021 was 410m. Add 45% and you get about 590m. That was organic revenue for 2022. The balance to the actual revenue came from acquisitions. The 25% growth refers to Q1 23 over Q1 22, ie c190/c155 (from memory).

Daz, you’re getting desperate now. More Power Towers are in production for interested clients and will serve a different purpose from the fuel cell power generator going forward. In my view AFC has navigated well the journey from the basic idea of diesel genset replacement to first prototype then second and third (etc) ongoing tweaks/developments to reach the “sweet spot” that meets Acciona’s needs at least. None of this was going to happen overnight. It feels like a tipping point has now been reached and more and more clients will quickly adopt the enhanced products. As for those saying AlkaMem and Vard etc are gone, say what? AlkaMem has just been deprioritised given more immediate opportunities, which is perfectly sensible. And maritime is clearly stated to be one of the industries next in line.

Did I miss an open invitation to that Zoom meeting, Basil, was it open to anyone? Can it be accessed now? Sept. for first patient treatment would be terrific - three months earlier than I expected. And surely that milestone would unlock funding from various new sources if the company can just get there. Just five months at say £2m = £10m required (ignoring loan refinancing).

What are peoples’ expectations for Q1? Q4 last year was exceptional from a revenue POV (c$250m) - I’m not sure how seasonal the business is - presumably more purchases at Xmas so less ad revenue in Q1 than other quarters? So one quarter of the analysts’ annual revenue expectations (c$190-220m) would be a very good result?

The problem is, Sagi is now perilously close to the 70% he apparently needs for the offer to become unconditional.

Kenj, yes I know all that, I think we’re violently agreeing. The point about reducing the nominal price is that it would allow equity to be raised at below the current 25p nominal. We’re clear on that.

My point is that the company wants to minimise any dilution to existing shareholders, whether institutional or retail. Reducing the nominal below 25p and issuing equity at say 15p would cause more dilution than necessary, in my opinion. The Board refuses to do that. Quite right in my opinion. I don’t want to be diluted more than absolutely necessary. Odey etc. will say the same. If the company can get debt financing then it may not need to issue equity at sub-25p. If it can form a JV with a NASDAQ-listed entity then the JV may be able to raise capital at a sensible price. Let’s hope.