Member Info for iWantThatOne

Kenj, I completely agree with you that a placing at a low price would be advantageous if it keeps the company afloat. My take is that the company has refused to do so to date simply because existing shareholders would be diluted to hell. This may be the price to pay as a last resort but the Board clearly believe they’re not yet at that point.

I don’t agree the Board has “put up the for sale sign”. On re-reading the RNS many times yesterday I’ve convinced myself that it relates to one strand of the strategic review only, that related to the best way of obtaining a NASDAQ listing. The Takeover Panel has deemed that to require treating discussions as being under a formal sale process, facilitating confidentiality. And yes, the full sale of the company might be one outcome, but the Board is explicit that they’re looking for partners, not buyers.

Excellent news. Well done HUM. Each quarter this year has its own challenges and that’s a great start to the year.

The continuing earnings in Q2 will offset the extra $15m they plan to drawdown from Coris so I expect net debt will remain c$105m during this quarter. I imagine H2 will look less good in terms of financials, given Kor guidance is still 80-90k ozs even after an expected 50-55k ozs H1. Similarly, AISCs in H2 must increase substantially if the FY expectation is closer to $1500 - due to KE coming to an end and KEUG not yet on line? Or perhaps revised guidance will be more bullish? Anyway, that’s for the future.

I imagine H2 will be

I agree, Curious. The wording of the RNS is hardly doom laden. I find it hard to believe that the Board is only now starting a strategic review if they literally run out of money in six weeks. I think the Board has always had shareholders’ interests at heart - hence the focus on debt, and the refusal so far to reduce the nominal price to allow equity raises at sub-25p. I think they (and the investors in the CLN) are playing things month by month until the right solution emerges. Of course this is not a possibility long or even medium term but I doubt the likes of Seamus Mulligan (£10m loan to the company drawn down and holding >30m shares) will just let the company fold without a fight.

That 100k share transaction at 10:21 was mine - a buy at 2.735p, not a sale as reported. I’m thinking that only one outcome - not a single lender nor quoted NASDAQ company being interested, nor any other investor - leads to a buy at these levels leading to a wipeout. Every other outcome leads to sizeable gains.

I suppose the bottom line is whether there’s anyone out there - anyone! - who’s willing to invest in this amazing technology. If there is - whether a strategic investor or all- out buyer - the current sp remains a steal. Surely there is. And the company has clearly signalled it will move to NASDAQ if required. And I’m still not ruling out a lender coming to the rescue - perhaps their DD is taking a long time.

Not sure how I feel about the RNS today. The potential NASDAQ listing would certainly help raise capital - though it feels rather late in the day to be starting that process. I like the idea that it’s a wide-ranging review, of which a full sale is just one option. A well-resourced strategic partner would be great. The prospect of being funded through to end-May is comforting and gives them another month in which to secure debt funding - though now this option would be set alongside others arising from the review. Hmm.....

Back in the autumn the sp was a steady 13p - the equivalent of say 10p in these post dilution days. That’s when Kor was nine months away and fears that the company may run out of cash began to circulate. Clearly we’re now a little above 10p, but so we should - there are no cash issues (we think); Kor will be commissioned this quarter (we think); and the POG is much stronger. Dugbe is no longer potentially subject to a fire sale. So IMO the current sp is perfectly supportable and mostly reflects de-risking. It had clearly gone too low. On a discounted cash flow basis much higher levels can be supported, even after discounting for the risk that remains.

DB has been clear that Dugbe is too big for HUM alone but could be perfectly ok with a 49% partner. £400m initial capex would be split, and HUM’s share would typically be 2/3rds debt funded. So that’d be just £66m cash from HUM, spread over two years or so. I think that could be covered from cash flow in the next two years, even as the Kor debt is paid down at c$25m pa plus interest. Having said that, it may be more be beneficial to sell and reinvest in a 100% owned third mine elsewhere - another Kor (if one were available).

Right, got you. The CLN will provide funds towards those objectives but will not be sufficient to do so. More funding is needed by the end of this month - maybe several weeks longer if they’ve managed to cut their cost base.

Meldrew, what do you mean by “final validation” - first patient treatment? The recent CLN has only provided funds to the end of April - that is, unless they can get more investors to come on board. The c£5m raised to date provides cash through to the end of this month only. However the terms of the CLN provide for another c£10m to be raised if anyone else wants to invest. We’re eagerly waiting for news on that. I’m guessing an extra £10m would provide cash through to end-August or thereabouts, at £5m per two months. I suspect we’d all prefer a loan to be secured rather than a convertible loan that isn’t sufficient to get us to first patient treatment, but beggars can’t be choosers.

Some bigger buys today totalling about 700k shares, with an almost matching 650k sell right at close. Evidence of DNCA selling out in an orderly fashion or am I reaching.... ?

GRQ - 230MeV target reached, LIGHT system now fully functional though final refinement of patient positioning chair etc ongoing. Much of this year is about working with UHB Trust towards first patient treatment in Q4. Sales pipeline /expressions of interest growing rapidly. No focus yet on manufacturing. Regulatory certification in UK and US ongoing. So all good there.

Biggest issue is funding - £75-85m needed over two years. Company is working on debt solutions but it’s taking time and in the meantime they’re having to entice equity investors with warrants and generous CLNs. Share price drop is mostly due to fear of not getting funding (IMO).

Rev - you can buy AVO in your ISA.

I don’t find it particularly strange that DNCA Finance are selling much, probably all, of their holding. They will have regular reviews of the holdings that form the portfolios they construct for their institutional and retail clients, and it’s quite possible that AVO no longer passes their screening tests. This shareholding would have formed only a small part of their funds so they can afford to let it go now. Other AVO institutional shareholders will have different motivations.

The typical daily volume for trading in AVO is about 1m shares, so it may take the rest of April to clear the overhang - if indeed they are still selling the rest (there were 700k shares sold on Friday that looked like they might form a pattern). This could give a tremendous opportunity for us investors if in the meantime the company comes out with news that they’ve secured a loan....

Kenj, fair enough, we both have our ideas on how this will pan out, we all want the same thing in the end. Let’s see how it goes. Good to see a slight uptick today.

It seems that many investors here are still unhappy at the lack of sales, the level of director remuneration and the cash burn while the S+ Series, ammonia cracker technology, power towers, multi-fuel cells etc are developed. I’m slightly incredulous that they are still thinking in terms of short development cycles that would see fully commercial systems signed off, given regulatory certification and on the market within a short timeframe. Surely it’s obvious to everyone how embryonic the hydrogen fuel cell industry still is, and how it needs long-term partnerships to get off the ground?

Nevertheless, it feels like AFC is getting closer and closer to finalising product solutions developed jointly with industry partners (ABB) or participants (Acciona, Mace etc), and therefore being ready to commercialise in short order. I’m very happy with progress. It’s just a shame that the market doesn’t reward this kind of progress right now; only sales and positive cash flow will drive the share price. But it’ll come soon enough.

No Kenj, my point to StanAccy was specifically about dilution, and how most informed investors expect some. And would be willing to suffer that - IMO. And either an equity raise this year or once warrants are exercised will lead to dilution but could quite plausibly be mechanisms to provide some of this funding. The terms on which immediate funding can be obtained remain to be seen, as you say.

Wow, $49m revenue this year forecast by Singer, plus cash profit c$12m. More than I was expecting but I guess the revenue can be rationalised as follows: take the 29m for 2022, add a further 10m for a full year from Docomo, add 1.5m from the business sold last year that’s now being spread over several years - that’s over 40m. Then add in organic growth - say 25% of c24m ex-Docomo - that’s $46.5m. So seems plausible. And then next year we get the first real contribution from the Tier 1 client. Exciting.

Great news, a massive milestone to see the S+ series validated. Well done AFC and Mr Bond. I guess that’s the reason for not releasing the news earlier - a desire for everything to be signed off (not “to allow ABB to buy shares cheaply” - eye roll). And whilst the ten units are not yet purchase orders, the intent to buy is clearly there.

Admin expenses went up by c$11m, much more than the increase in revenue - mostly because of Docomo. The $21m synergy savings that are targeted will correct this throughout 2023. There was also a $5m hit due to FX, which is fair enough. I think both of these have deflected from how well the underlying business is still doing.

I meant the warrant holders will start to exercise once the sp rises above 25p. Clearly not in the immediate future but these could be an important source of capital.