Member Info for Ivyspivey

Morning Sheltie,
Your insight into how M&G works is useful.
We used to describe Merck like a tortoise.Pokes it’s head out and looks around and back into shell then another look and when it does move is a very well thought out and planned move.
Sounds like a M&G operate in a similar derisked fashion

Well know GL had a few meetings in London in mid November and mid December so plenty of opportunity

Hi Ian,
Only a quick glance.No major changes save for updating M&G %age on p20 which alerted me to change.
They still state 2 preferred options are partner with another AB Company or another Company in Hospital space so given late stage and no recruitment of MSLs yet it would be unbelievable imo if they did US Commercialisation themselves so confident of some deal.
Also the timeline slide with major catalysts like recruitment of MSLs/KAMs and Account Managers etc has been taken out so really don’t think they are going down that line.
Much more focus on PDUFA date catalyst so that is timeline I am looking to

Think more likely to do with attending JPM and wanted to update.
Big sign of confidence M&G buying so many more shares.Hardly behaviour of a big investor likely to take part in any placing so don’t think there is one coming

SS11
Hope you enjoy holiday
25 days refers to time to PDUFA date onn13th Feb when FDA gives decision in whether Iclaprim is Approved

Jimzi the August date is M&G holding RNS.
AMP sold some in Sept but have same figure now at 8% .Possibke simevif AMP taken in August but the latest SH list was updated on 31st Dec so presume M&G have been buying since September too

Jimzi
AMP holding is same.May be another off market transaction but SG and Invesco remained the same

I know Rats.
Purely an impression of the change in govt approach which as I said feel will chime much more with the SCLP science imo than the VAL products and is in no way a judgement on the merits of the various Companys products.
I know some on here hold both and others have a very poor view of the VAL science.
Personally as I am not invested there I have no interest whatsoever in expressing a view one way or the other

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MTFB&ArticleCode=9glpcyic&ArticleHeadline=Holdings_in_Company

5.1% see August RNS

Page 20 of presentation.
Have also checked SH list.
Go to NTFB site go to Investors then to AIM Investors and then number 4 Share Holder Infirmation and you will see it as updated on 31st December and has M&G at 9.1% M&G Group
26,849,751 shares.
AMP/Sandgrove and Invesco remain the same

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NzAzMDQ4fENoaWxkSUQ9NDE1MDcyfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Really interesting bit is Major SH.
Look at M&G now 9.1% or 26 m shares.The MTFB SH list was updated on 31st Dec but no RNS re increase in holding but new %age looks accurate so they have been buying big.

FYI for general consumption.
Know There are varying views on the other Company and personally feel this message is much more applicable to here than there and that is the spirit in which it is posted

https://www.investegate.co.uk/valirx-plc--val-/rns/valirx-endorses-the-government-s-new-nhs-strategy/201901091041006356M/

Yes will be an interesting day
Sure a few will be watching the CRUK feed from midnight

Agree Moljen have not advanced the commercial side as well as the science and keeping it such a close knit team for various reasons has the weakness that they sometimes fail to see the wider picture of PR/ seeking a wider SH base especially institutional backers etc
I am not so worried about exposure to big pharma as think their current tie ups will as CH says guarantee a ringside seat but I do think they would have gained more by having a sharper focus and concentrate on getting one deal over the line/ candidate advanced rather than the current scientific spreadshot approach which will inevitably dilute limited resources.
If the science really comes through then great but I think the inclusion of a totally external NED or two on the BOD would give much more balanced decision making and some of the risk may have been mitigated

I ll = will

Plus all recent cash raises have Ben at 30-32p and suspect institutional investors like Invesco,BOA and Prudential will have to be on board and I’ll take part.
As I say I do not expect a placing but could see the need to raise cash if for eg you wanted to take over or more likely partner with a bigger Company already in this space.

I am more of Ian’s opinion that it is trying to keep it within a range and the ATs to take it down are then bought back by same entity which then sell on the rise and rinse and repeat or linked to AMP in something me way.
Vast bulk of warrants are at 32p so not sure where 20p ones refer to apart from in house.
As they have plenty of cash and not been spending much and have access to remaining Hercules loan if it is a placing then I suspect it’s purpose is not to commercialise themselves or progress HABP but more likely to be related to a partnership deal to create a much bigger entity.

Hi US

They have been silent for a while now so when FDA decision is made assuming it is positive I can guarantee they will have to talk about the US commercialisation and launch of Iclaprim.
Any official announcements may not come until March but they will not miss an opportunity to do lots of interviews etc and this has to include comments on partner discussions etc

Addressable market for ROW is roughly 40% of global market with US 60%=as a rough and ready figure.

For US expect some announcement within weeks but there will have to be a statement highlighting pathway within days of FDA decision imo

For Europe/ ROW expect to hear about EMA submission any time and then about partner deals late 2018 but US pathway will give big clues