Member Info for Ivybush

Regular information from BOD

1/2 yr Production RNS 31/7/18
Interim results RNS 29/8/18
Q3 Production RNS 24/10/18
Q3 Financial resuts RNS 21/11/18

Q4 production results imminent. Shareholders well informed in my opinion.

The details of the Loan Note were announced by RNS on 24th Sept 2018
and would have been taken on board by the market at that time.

It is clear that whoever wrote this paper acknowledges that the "Upper Law" is valid
and in favour of EMH. Presumably under EU law this would mean very substantial
compensation if the CZ authorities ignored present agreements.

This would not only be costly to the state but almost certainly casuse major delays in
production from Cinovec. Seems positive for EMH to me.

I have added a few times in the last month and clearly hope we have bottomed.

Although at a cost, funding for next 12 months has been arranged.

As always in mining, key to success are commodity prices.

A buy imv if you think gold/copper prices will continue to rise from last year lows.

@FrankieH I am not offended at all. It is a fact that for the present we have to sell assets
to fund the £330k per month loan repayment for next 12 months.

It is just a choice of which is better to dispose. BCN have backed themselves into a corner
with funding problems, which in my view may involve, at best, a buyout partner with control.

Other assets will need to be realised or a fund raising share issue by kdnc.

The buying/selling of assets which is what the company does.

@Dallasdaz with bcn, definitely. I do feel that Yangibana sale is still in the frame.

HAS could pick this up at a good price [to them] in todays market.

I suggest small amount of cash, balance in equity with seat on BOD as a sweetener.

Would make sense to both parties. HAS would have no jv to consult, kdnc can repay loan.

That covers kdnc monthly loan payment of approx £330k

Barring sales of assets elsewhere I would expect further bcn sales to come.

It is highly unlikely [imv] that the full funding required would be by equity issue to shareholders.

A more likely outcome is institutional [sovereign?] funding with large [controlling?] equity stake.

Thus a major dilution risk to current bcn holders.

The bcn share price has been at or near 25p for the last month.

I would be very surprised if an equity issue could be made at this level without positive news.

If a capital raise was at say, 20p would sp increase above 25p?

I am not at all surprised to learn kdnc have reduced holding in bcn.

In last webinar [early Dec] KM did say he was looking to "de-risk" investments.

Clearly bcn is in limbo until or if funding is agreed, in the meantime a known risk.

I would expect more sales to come.

This would also avoid dilution if bcn raise by equity--which kdnc cannot afford at present.

@Frankie I have come out of semi hibernation to respond as this raises a point which is
a bete noire to me.

You have to appreciate that many "trades" are ghost or effectively non existent, particularly
where the consideration is very small. The mm's seem to think we will be influenced by a
small deal at a high/low sp. Maybe some pi's just look at prices and not volume but I find
the practice annoying and seems prevalent on AIM.

Maybe the dealers at mm trading desks just get bored and want to appear busy!

@observer842 You are quite right, I was mixing up the present share capital instead
of the 3 billion authorised increase at the AGM---for which I voted in favour.

I assume there is a fund raising plan---just wish we knew what it was.

As a lth with a substantial holding, I have revisited my original assessment of kdnc
with a dose of rationale and realism.

My current view [not swayed by wishful thinking] is that the co still has a profitable
future but of immediate concern is the loan repayment of £3.85m circa £320k pr month.

Clearly without income flow, either asset sales or capital raising [or both] is required.
With depressed sp's on quoted investments there ought to be some revival here in 2019.

So, of the unquoted investments it seems to me that Yangibana jv is on the radar, particularly
with the deferral of mining development by Hastings. Maybe our BOD could obtain a larger
equity stake in Hastings or even ready cash by selling.

As a backstop a share issue [perish the thought] at .0.05p would raise £3.92m

So there are alternatives and surely the BOD have discussed these---surely??

I remain invested and optimistic for the following reasons:

EMH is well placed and will produce lithium carbonate which the market prefers
Besides ev production even greater demand will come from battery storage
The LME is progressing to create a commodity market for lithium metals
The market fall in stocks [both producers and prospectors] has been overdone imv

To sum up, I remain very optimistic with the caveat that future loan payment
funding has to be addressed by kdnc very soon.

My wish is for a happy and healthy New Year to all who post on this site.

@ Obs if I may be allowed to contribute here ---I am a bcn shareholder as well as at kdnc

In the much maligned webinar by Kiran at kdnc [which I listened to in full, but did not record]
he was merely extrapolating, in answer to a question, on the minimum price per share required
if all the development funds were raised by placing. Clearly any one can divide 500million by
[x] to reach whatever figure is felt necessary.

It is a matter of regret that bcn BOD have allowed the required funding procedure to be such a
dilatory process encouraging rumour and recrimination.

Agreed the present [renegotiated] loan will need funding by asset sales or capital raise.

In the ill-fated webinar early Dec --which I listened to in full--- I recall KM specifically
mentioning Yangibana jv valuation discussions with Hastings. Did any one else pick this up?

Presumably with disposal in mind, he stated that their valuation was well below kdnc figure.
Nevertheless, personally I would be happy with a sale [val £x million?] to repay loan.

kdnc would then be well placed to ride out present poor market sentiment on quoted investments.

@TigerByTheTail Although not relevant here you describe kdnc as a " joke company"

Many bcn shareholders will recall sale by kdnc of 8.9m bcn shares at 70p in Sept 2017.

Seems to me that was an astute deal, not at all conforming to your description.

Recommend any poster here to read VSA report

Can be viewed in full by using link on kdnc site [11.33 post from DCES]

Very professionally produced and presented, to justify target price.

This kind of independent positive assessment can only assist funding process.

Check RNS dated 2nd October 2018 --- some discrepancy

Stated Orr-Ewing holding 3,141,282 [but in note 3....]

Holding in 2016 10,818,793 "no change notified since that date"

So where did figure of 3m+ come from? and was that correct?

@addicknt How about trustees of Orr-Ewing family?

KM mentioned at recent webinar [kdnc] that they had sold recently without TR1 note

Last holding notified to bcn [in 2016-- see RNS] was over 10m

Would answer why no RNS from kdnc.

Check out resolution 10 for AGM 13th Dec --in public domain

To authorise Directors to offer up to 500m shares--372% of exist share cap
towards $419m capex on Sonora project.

Clearly potential massive dilution which kdnc CEO was commenting on.