focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Agree Hemp, doubt there will be much new news at this point but hopefully they will flesh out some details a d provide some update on where they are with Kobold. As per my previous, these are common sense points but not expecting much - hopefully will be pleasantly surprised.
Ash_bot, you wrote: "twist in the tale" - well that cap raise was certainly a twist in the tale :-p.
Joking aside, 1.1m cap raise is even worse timing than the one RE did last year. This is really kicking us while we are down. Divestments will buy us some time and bring in much needed cash but it's not going to move the dial much as I am not sure we will get a fairvalue for them given our position. We are valued at ~6m MC. There are many ways to calculate it but one way, Disko book value 4m which leaves 2m valuation for the remaining assets.
The only hope now is Kobold, we need Disko drilling and we need them to overspend "bigly" like they did on exploration.
Iv_bot
I said the below last week when Sandgrove were selling out - how is this not insider trading? - they obviously knew the cap raise was coming...
"The last time we had major shareholders selling was right before Dundas RNS and capnraise... I can only assume bad news is coming."
In addition, at least, some part is aligned to what we had expected in terms of use of funds for divestments. However, still no strategy, still no understandinh of what the new old management have planned -> good business practice would have released the strategy and the cap raise at the same time, you know here is what we are doing we need your funds to execute it - it's called transparency. I fear we are back to smoke and mirrors and hands in the cookie jar with Bluejay. P.s. the cookie jar is shareholder money.
Quick question, how do you reckon 5p? Don't get me wrong I would love it.
However, a 5p share price is the equivalent to an MC of about 800m GBP. Even with recent resource upgrades NPV would probably be about NPV of 1bn USD or about 800m GBP. Granted yes, more exploration coming.
But we only own 49% of the project, and a companies MC generally converges with the project NPV when in production = ~400m GBP. So from my bag of a cig packet calc - just taking what we know without any further exploration or resource upgrades etc we get to a an SP max of around 2p for Bougoumi (so a 5 bagger from here). Again happy to be wrong.
I am curious re: JVs / Strategic Investors, does anyone know how far we actually got in the process?
REs last point was that they were in the bunker, which in my book means significantly progressed.
Thanks in advance.
IV_Bot :-p
There you go... https://support.google.com/chrome/answer/12027911?hl=en
It was my understanding that sonic (SD) had been used previously for Dundas and when completing the BFS, SRK was appointed and they used Diamond head drilling (DH) obviously a very big difference in that material would get washed away or contaminated using DH versus SD (example below). I guess the question is who made the decision to use DH Vs SD? (sounds like a Bo decision to me)
Example:
Sonic drilling can also reduce the risk of cross-contamination between different layers or zones of the subsurface, which can affect the quality and reliability of your data. This is because the vibrations prevent the drill fluids or cuttings from mixing with the core or the surrounding soil, creating a clear boundary between the sample and the drill hole. Sonic drilling can also use less or no water as a drilling fluid, which minimizes the environmental impact and the waste disposal costs.
Well we know Disko is valued at ~9m from the JV side so divide by 2 to get the Bluejay carrying value.
There is also a problem... since they kitchen sinked Dundas and no further cash will be invested in developing it, they will have to impair/write down the value of Dundas (good old accounting rules) - this will hurt the balance sheet of course but this should have been baked into the SP at this stage (but will still hurt the SP when they do announce it).
Dollar Vs GBP on the first point Kat.
Re: Excitement - see Kurt Hous s interview where he states most significant Nickel discovery in a hundred years.
What did you mean if nothing happens till June? (A RNS?, Drilling? ???)
Actually now that I think of it, option 2 would be the best scenario..., we know Kobold have to spend ~12m drilling this year. If Bluejay/Kobold want to drill more (providing Bluejay can raise funds through asset sales and agree) Kwhatever Bluejay raise obold will then match the additional amount of drilling expenditure as part of the JV.
Scenario, is let's say Jay raises 10m through asset sales, of which they allocate 6-7m for additional drilling expenditure. Kobold pony up an additional 6-7m on top of their ~12m of committed expenditure would mean a 24-26m field season for Disko - which may get us to an MRE or very close.
Rationale for the above is I don't think Kobold will want to overspend again without matching funds as they did for the 2022 field season but more than likely want to spend more on the up omong drilling which Bluejay will also need to find per the JV - this could potentially be the reasoning for the latest RNS where they stated that Disko is the sole focus.
Yes, the above is speculation but the more I think about it the more it seems the most likely scenario. (The base case is Kobold still spend the ~12m irrespective, assuming Bluejay can't raise the additional cash on time).