RE: DFS - Gold price16 Oct 2025 10:58
They don’t actually use the spot price when doing a BFS or FID — that’d be way too volatile.
What happens is they pick a long-term gold price deck based on analyst consensus (WoodMac, S&P, banks, etc.), usually well below spot to stay conservative.
Example: with gold sitting around $4,217/oz today, a BFS would typically model something like $3,000–$3,200/oz in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
The base-case NPV/IRR is built off that long-term price, then they run sensitivity tables for upside/downside (say $2,500–$3,800/oz).
When it gets to FID, the board checks those numbers against the recent spot averages (like a 3- or 6-month trailing price) before signing off the spend — but they don’t replace the base case with spot.