IMO, if you can get in at the low 7s late 6s you should be ok, but be prepared for a lot of being annoyed with management and ridiculous delays. Still hoping Dundas gets the financing late this year / early Q1 next to begin construction and hopefully the long awaited Disko drilling next year.
The market really don't like the latest update. It's pure incompetence at best and market manipulation at worst. Heads should roll for this! IMHO, the SP should go to low 6s or even late 5s as a result of this - not what we all want to hear by any stretch but there is still long term value in this company - they just need the right leadership. Think I will be moving more of my capital into other junior minors like Ironbark Zinc, atleast they are transparent with a competant board and CEO!
Apparently, they have interesected Ni-Cu mineralisation similar to the old mine area. However, I think the Jan 11 announcement is positively skewed - we really need the assay results to see what they have.
My understanding is that the JV is an earn in and currently Rio have 50%. Based on whatever results come back from the assays there will undoubtedly be a discussion between them on whether or not Rio wish to continue investing. If they continue Rio will need to continue investing cash and can take up to 75% of the JV if they spend a total of $20m USD.
Wow, where to start :-)
My two cents (high level):
1.) Dilution: ~1 billion shares currently issued with dilution to come as part of the Financing package for Dundas
2.) Uncertainty: In my opinion, the entire companies future and shareholder sanity hinges on the financing of Dundas. If they don't get funding locked in by early Q1 2023 and mine build out does not commence asap post this (18mth build) to start generating revenue then Bluejay may not be able to fund its Disko commitments in 2024 without another dillution to existing shareholders. (Note: they don't know what they have at Disko yet)
3.) Management: Long term holders on here will tell you that the BoD have led them up the garden path on multiple occassions and are super slow, don't have the best track record (i.e. where are the Enonkoski Assay results) and are bad at communicating.
4.) For me the current SP is about right and without any significant news in the intervening months should drift lower. Dundas by itself (no dilution) is worth a 24p SP (Dundas NPV / ~1bn shares) with current uncertainty / risk then its in the right ball park at the moment (Noting, if Dundas was a single asset project, that the bluejay market cap will start converging towards the project NPV as mine build progresses to production).
All that being said, I am here for Disko and think its worth the risk. With initial Disko exploration starting soon, I think the timing may just about work. My hunch is that Disko initial exploration results including assays will be fully out by end of year. If results are good, and I expect they will be, the SP will re-rate significantly. Why does this matter, well its timing - we get a significant re-rate ahead of Dundas financing and dilution = less dilution for existing shareholders = more upside on current SP. If Disko results are not as good as expected then = more dilution for Dundas = less upside potential on current SP.
Either way a lot of things need to go right for Bluejay this year and thats roughly why the SP is where it is!
IMO with Enonkoski drilling completed and awaiting Assay results (probably in the next month or so), Disko 2022 drill program pencilled in to start in Q2. All we need is Dundas financing to be concluded in the next 3 months? and I think we are game on. The difference between Bluejay and other juniors is the fact that they are progressing multiple deposits with a healthy pipeline of projects versus having all their eggs in one basket. Could they be faster, yes but they have limited resources (people) at this stage.
Apparently, there is a backlog in the Assaying labs due to Covid - its affceting a lot of projects. Plus it was only announced that drilling had been completed a couple of weeks back - these things do take time you know and even more due to the backlog.
Agree, shipping is not a major point when funding isn't agreed. Yes, the BoD need to work harder on securing financing, they had a LoI from the US EXIM for $208m last Feb - Ironbark had similar and lodged its application in August last year and have had an initial ~$6-700m approved in December - $245m Capex for Dundas isn't even a lot of money in mining terms... Financing really needs to be in place by end of Q1 / early Q2 to have a chance of doing prep work for Greenlands summer. I really hope they start being more transparent and get the financing in place asap to restore some credibility!
That being said I do like the current prices but its a binary gamble - they get funding SP should improve as mine is developed even with dilution - delayed funding and delayed construction as a result easily slip back into 5 - 7 range.
I think that's the point that it is balanced and shows the prospectivity of the company but for the immediate future it all hinges on Dundas primarily and drilling updates which should be coming later this year.
Re: Funding its a tricky one IMO - Ideally funding needs to be secured by early Q2. However, if they are including US EXIM funding into the mix, based on IBG (Ironbark) it's not a short process - so could go beyond Q2 - that is assuming of course that they haven't done any work on it up until appointment of the IB.
https://bluejaymining.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Bluejay-Mining_Data-Valuation-Report_FINAL_4-Jan-2022.pdf
(Analysis Document)
Pretty good analysis - just need the BoD to get on and deliver!
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BLUEJAY-MINING-PLC-15082161/news/Bluejay-Mining-Moving-into-a-Pivotal-Year-37469553/
I am buying :-) Just had some great news on Ironbark in the last couple of days. Haven't been in Bluejay as long as some and irrespective of the BoD, Dundas is the milestone (which I am sure will happen) - Disko is the big one! So am in for the long haul.