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I'm hopeful IES will copy the price movements of GWH and EOSE. Fo the future, when Invinity starts US manufacturing, they should get a US listing.

The two storage battery companies in the US that are closely aligned with Invinity are ESS Technology (NYSE: GWH) and EOS Energy Enterprises (NASDAQ:EOSE).

This was mentioned during the investor meet presentation. Taking a look at their share price performance reveals that the battery sector is now red hot in the US.

Personally I hopeful IES will copy the price movements of GWH and EOSE.

VSA Capital has just released a new research note on the full year results together with forecast profitability in 2025:

"We have initiated FY 2025 estimates forecasting revenue of £125.6m, generating £16.8m of cash from operations, capital expenditure of £1.5m and £0.2m of lease expenditure. This, to produce an overall cash inflow of £15.1m."

"In Mistral we can see a very clear path to profitability, given, from our discussions with management, expected gross margins of up to 30%."

"Buy. Target price of 145p/sh."

No obligation to inform market of extending the long stop date.

Only RNS’d the last extension on 17th April:

In accordance with the announcement on 7 March 2023, the Company also confirms that it has extended the long-stop date from 31 March 2023 to 30 June 2023 in order to facilitate completion of the Sonangol transaction.

You say that VS3 is a loss leader before the next generation product Mistral. An engineering assumption here is that Mistral is made to perform at a utility scale, so fingers crossed. With a mid year launch next year, orders starting in Q3, revenue from sales starting in Q4 next year. VS3 is the only source of revenue for another 18 months.

Company has informed the market of the details of all of its signed contracts for VS3. Looking back I’d say first half sales this year have not been on a par with the excellent Q4 sales last year. What does anyone think about that?

Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, is calling for a £3bn emergency mortgage protection fund to protect families at risk of losing their homes. To be funded, no doubt, by a proper windfall tax.

Yes, it’s unnecessary to say anything today before the imminent results. Can’t wait to hear what they’ve got to say then and get the full picture. I’ve a feeling that Mistral is taking a little longer than previously guided.

It's been announced that a provision for future losses that has been reduced, but this is an accountant moving figures around.

Better news would be that revenues were higher than expected in 2022, but it's disappointing that revenues were only £3.6m over the year. Analysts had revenue expectations of £14m for 2022 at the mid point of last year. Obviously revenue will be far better this year, because of the bulky OPALCO, IBEW and LODES projects.

My suspicious mind is looking for a reason why this had this information was released today , when it could have waited until nest week? The other point here is that gross margin loss is reducing.

Any thoughts on whether £15.4m cash balance is enough for the next twelve months at the current cash burn? I think the cash burn was discussed in the Q&A from the recent investor meet presentation. Don't remember the figure, about £1.5m per month?

Thanks for your reply Mikemine. Glad that you contacted IR about Gamesa involvement. I'd like to see a second pilot project announced soon to give some reassurance about meeting the commercial release date currently expected in mid 2024.

IES placing circular in Feb 2023: "Invinity expects to announce initial pilot projects in H2 2023 with commercial launch of Mistral expected to occur in mid-2024."

Larry Zulch on 6th June 2023

Voxmarkets: “Let’s go back a couple of years now, I saw you got a joint development partner in grid scale flow battery which was Gamesa Electric’s wholly owned subsidiary Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy. Can you explain this and if I’ve read in the RNS correctly the timescale is about two years, we are now round about that time aren’t we?”

LZ: “We’re getting up to it and so the background on that is that it makes a lot of wind turbines and they were seeing the very thing that we've been telling about they couldn't sell more wind turbines in the sites that when the wind was blowing was making all the energy that was needed and then there's no need for another wind turbine when the wind isn't blowing. There's no need for wind turbine so they said we need energy storage they looked around they bought multiple batteries from multiple companies and they decided that ones that we're making are the appropriate kind of technology.”

“They're gonna last as long as the wind turbines which was important to them so could scale up etc but they also said you need a bigger less expensive battery and we said that's exactly right here's what we've been working on and they said we want to help you enjoy these develop that you know so we've been working with them quite closely now.”

“We’re not disclosing details at this point of the battery development as you know large companies certainly have very good discipline about not talking about things before they're made available to the market but the project is progressing well. It will allow much larger batteries at lower cost than anything that we've seen before and in fact: on an important measure which is if you look over the lifetime of the battery how much does each unit of energy cost? It will be the least expensive battery on the market that includes lithium, that includes all the technologies.”

“That's been our singular goal as a company in terms of product development, it is to get this battery through and out on the market and we're looking at an announcement next year and we'll even be announcing some of the first pilot projects this year so pilot project announcement this year, public announcement of the battery jointly with our partner next year.” 

Mistral commercial release date in 2024

I’ve been listening to the statement made by Larry Zulch at the investor meeting in June 2022. Mistral commercial release date expected H1 2023, shipping end 2023.

Then I’ve listened to what he said recently about the release date. It looks like Mistral has been delayed by at least a year.

Anyone know how this has come about?

LZ in June 2022: “A flow battery it's hard to make a good one and VS3 is a good flow battery. We are reducing costs through the Next Generation product but it's still a good product and we'll be selling that product and delivering that product all the way through next year. The next question is, assuming all goes well with Siemens Gamesa with the development project how long after development completes will the first commercial sales begin?”

“Well, the first commercial sales will be before development is complete but the real milestone that we're very focused on is called the commercial release date. This is actually a curved before the development is fully complete but it comes at the point when we and Siemens Gamesa believed that the product is ready to be disclosed to the world and this isn't just Invinity coming out little infinity saying hey we've got this new great flow battery This Is us jointly saying we have co-developed and will make available at this price with this specification on this schedule this Next Generation flow battery that's not going to happen this year it will happen next year.”

“My stake in the ground is to see it happening in the first half of next year that will have that commercial release. The product won't be shipping, it will be announced and will be selling. We will actually already be discussing commercial opportunities for that project if we do it now we do it under non-disclosure and none of the numbers that Matt showed you in the pipeline have any of the Next Generation product in them. They’re entirely the VS3 product the current product all of that pipeline is VS3 so when we talk about the Next Generation product we're only talking about the concept at this point but in the future it’s reality. So when will we ship, it is the Logical question and stake in the ground, end of next year but that's a stake in the ground.”

Drax under scrutiny

https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/just-transition/mississippi-regulator-accused-of-pollution-cover-up-at-drax-wood-pellet-mill/

https://www.dailyleader.com/2023/05/31/amite-biomass-parent-company-drax-responds-to-investigation/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/29/drax-owned-wood-pellet-plant-in-us-broke-air-pollution-rules-amite-bioenergy-mississippi-emissions-limits

Prices may fall over the summer, but never for two consecutive quarters. UK gas market participants do not expect prices to return to historical levels. Current UK NBP gas contracts for June 24, 25, 26 and 27 are 103p, 94p, 80p and 77p respectively.

My worry is that Siemens are no longer onboard with the project. Siemens Mistral team should have made a statement with this RNS.

The Voxmarkets podcast made it clear no announcement on Mistral without Siemens authorisation. Where are Siemens mentioned here?

I was hoping the prototypes would be functional later this year rather than early next year. Sounds to me this will

Impact the delivery of commercial products from mid next year until late next year. Rather disappointing implications for the Mistral timeline having waited two years.

“ Our world-leading energy plan announced today by Keir Starmer will turn this around. A clean power system by 2030 will lay the foundations of the drive to net zero, but it will also unleash waves of dynamism and industry across our country with a million well-paid jobs in the renewable and nuclear industries, built on strong trade unions.”

Summary of WFT so far

https://www.energyindepth.org/windfall-tax-case-study/

Capital markets day is today. Looking good.

The finnCap note has now been uploaded to their portal

https://www.finncap.com/research-portal#/portal/finncap

"These deals deliver a material non-operated shallow water portfolio containing significant production enhancement, development and exploration opportunities. The producing fields are highly free-cash-generative and provide a solid foundation for Afentra’s growth ambitions. We reiterate our Buy rating and unchanged 37p/sh price target."