Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I’ll wait for news on the latest water production figures before concluding all is well from a satellite image of a gas flare.
I'd still be cautious about assuming that the water problem at A2 is fully resolved.
I found this wording that concerns me from the broker finnCap's latest not on IOG: "Production logging data from the Southwark A2 well has identified that water production is predominantly emanating from three of the six stimulated zones in the well."
It suggests that there may be residual water production even after isolating the three main zones where water was being produced after the initial testing.
As the Saturn Banks reception facilities are already at maximum water handling capacity due to the water being produced at Blythe, going forward and adding production from Southwark into the pipeline will be another problem.
IOG's Nordic Euro bond has a demanding covenant requiring bond interest to be covered 5 times by earnings. The interest rate on IOG's Euro 100 million bond is currently 12.1% and rising with the EURIBOR rate. That's Euro 12.1 million per annum in interest payments. The bond interest covenant might potentially be breached if the current operational difficulties didn't get resolved in the next few months or other scenarios play out like the gas price falling over the summer. Any chance of a covenant breach would be reflected in the bond price. Does anyone know the current price of the bond?
What's it worth now?
I would say now that the volumetric estimate of the reservoir is likely to be reduced significantly based on the results of the A1 well control problems and half the A2 horizontal being outside the intended gas bearing rock and in water.
Additionally the poor initial flow rate of 4.2MMcfgpd from A2 compared to an expected rate of 40MMcfgpd from A2 may be related to cementation in the pores of the rock. It takes someone with better knowledge than me to understand geo articles, but there is an online extract from a research paper brought up by a Google search of "cementation" and "Vulcan South" renamed to Southwark.
I think this might be why they've decided to move the well location for A1 further EWest where the reservoir properties are expected to be better.
finnCap says "We estimate IOG has invested over £100m on Southwark, which if the second well does not come in could have to be materially written off. This will clearly have a significant impact on Saturn banks Phase 1 cash flow and the timing, if not the viability, of Phase 2 of the development being called into question. It also raises concerns over the refinancing of IOG's €100m Nordic bond."
A scan of full-time jobs at IOG on LinkedIn tonight brought up a new requirement for an Operations Engineer.
Looking at the job description the candidate needs to "Ensure the assets are maintained in a cost effective and efficient manner to maximise availability, minimise the risk of loss of containment and extend life of the assets. Secure high reliability uptime/production efficiency through targeted work and support on each asset and onshore plant". So the new hire needs to hit the ground running. IOG has also just posted requirements for an Engineering Manager, a number of Project Engineers and an Instrument and Control Engineer.
What does this say about 2023? IOG should not repeat the engineering problems of 2022 and it's going to be busy year!
Quite the opposite. Longer timescale suggests that a successful result is now more likely.
As SpArmada pointed out flaring occurred on 8th and 11th January and, even when the extended well test has finished, there are final steps to implement before first gas. The current strong winds around the platform may have led to testing taking a little longer than expected in the past few days. I won't be disappointed if first gas is announced, when they are ready, later in the week.
The image from Copernicus supplied by SpArmada shows a lot of detail. The circular helipad is adjacent to the Southerly leg of the rig, and the two Northerly legs are visible.
Whilst drilling the well, the rig would be positioned over the top of the Southwark platform. I'm assuming that the rig is still in this position whilst the testing is done. In that case the blur to the North of the rig is the platform. The red flare would be coming from the rig.
Fascinated by that photo of Southwark. I appreciate how you're pretty good at this detective work. Spotting the ship movements and monitoring helicopter transfers, and you've now included the satellite imagery!
Cheeky to ask you this question SpArmada. Can you post one of the images you’ve seen online of the flaring or is it not possible to download an image from Copernicus? I took a look at Copernicus online and there are a number of different datasets and will need to register to access and not sure which one to access. I’m really interested to know more about the image you saw of Southwark flaring!
Final safety inspection by the regulators.
And the Vox Paradise supply ship is alongside the rig (Shelf Perseverance / Noble Hans Deul), when I just checked, in preparation for re-entry of the Southwark A1 well.
"Elgood is currently shut-in with further production expected to require lower liquid volumes in the Saturn Banks Pipeline System ("SBPS"), after which it will be produced cyclically."
I have a little knowledge of gas transfer from brewing and will make a guess that the resistance in the gas line increases with higher liquid volumes in the pipe. In future to produce from Elgood it will be necessary to reduce further the liquid volume produced from Blythe or to shut-in Elgood for a period to allow the pressure to build.
That's the optimal solution for Elgood.
Spain approves 1.2% windfall tax on energy companies
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1391799/spain-approves-12-windfall-tax-on-energy-companies
Having a first play with MarineTraffic but there are limits to what you can view without paying a subscription.
It looks to me like activity near Southwark is picking up. Big Orange XVIII well stimulation vessel currently at Southwark. The Esvagt Champion safety vessel is standing by and the Noble Hans Deul rig is currently receiving supplies from the Vox Paradise. I'm assuming the Vox Paradise is supplying the rig because the reported destination on its last movement was the Noble Hans Deul.
Can anyone have a look and say what they can see?
Anyone here with a background in gas production rates?
I'll guess that after the well has been shut in for four weeks in November, now that production has restarted, the flow rate will be higher than before shut in. I think the production guidance for H2 is some indication that Blythe and Elgood will be producing at higher rates in December because of the wells being shut in during November.
So IOG is very fortunate to be producing at higher rates now the winter day ahead price for gas is 350p/therm.
Wind generation 4.7%, solar 0.2%, gas 65.3%
National grid electricity generation here: https://grid.iamkate.com
Don't worry about the additional demand for gas central heating on this cold morning, Joe Biden is going to help us out with more LNG.
It depends on the weather … if it’s calm enough then sooner. Can’t control the weather.
“What they should do is not buy one single licence” ... isn’t that exactly what Just Stop Oil want them to do?