Member Info for Itsriskythat

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-rejects-ukraines-naftogaz-claims-arbitration-2022-09-27/

News received that Russia is set to sanction the Ukrainian gas transit company Naftogaz. The consequence is Gazprom can't pay Naftogaz for gas transit across Ukraine to Europe so Europe loses another of its pipelines.

UK NBP up 22%
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NFX22/interactive-chart

Dutch TTF up 16%
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGX22/interactive-chart

Some latest comments on EPL:

ITV article says

"On Wednesday, the government confirmed that the energy profits levy (aka windfall tax) was remaining in place. So, when Truss says she’s against a windfall tax, she’s actually against an additional or extended windfall tax. Her government has a tax in place."

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-09-08/liz-truss-is-against-an-energy-windfall-tax-but-we-already-have-one

Wood Mackenzie research shows

"For some companies, they’ve seen a value wipe-out of over 30%, but actually the big spenders like the companies behind Rosebank and Cambo, if they were to proceed with those projects actually the overall value transferred would be quite limited."

"Under the analysts’ calculations, operators such as TotalEnergies (PARIS:TTE) and Serica Energy (AIM:SQZ) stand to see the most value eroded."

"Despite the sizable impact on firms, he said that “in theory” the fiscal changes are therefore “achieving what they’ve been set out to do.”

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/442558/windfall-tax-wipes-out-20-north-sea-value/

London Oil and Gas crossed the 26% threshold downwards on 23rd August just two days before the half-year report. Now it is unusual for LOG to sell because the last time was in April this year so a suspicious mind might think it wasn't a coincidence. It wouldn't therefore be a good omen if selling of blocks of 500k and 1m shares were to be reported again. However the lack of volume currently suggests that either LOG is kept in the dark or that operational progress is being made over the salinity issue at Blythe and Elwood and drilling at Southwark.

"Estimates still moving higher. IOG realised a volume-weighted average gas price of 149 p/th in H1, which has risen to 254p/th H2 to date. It has started modest hedging – 2.7 mmcfd in August and September at 310p/th and 444p/th – locking in high prices and safeguarding cash flow. With the UK natural gas forward curve for Q4 now averaging ~690p/th, there is clearly significant upside to our 125p/th assumption, which will outweigh the negative impact of reduced volumes and higher unit costs. The forward curve for 2023 sits at ~650p/th, again dwarfing our 100p/th assumption. All else equal, a 10p/th move in our gas price assumption increases 2023 cash flow by ~£10m." by Jonathan Wright at finnCap

Noting the blocks of 1 million in IOG traded last week and even bigger blocks being bought up at Igas Energy.

Odey Asset Management bought a 6.2% interest in Jadestone last year and have just revealed themselves as the buyer of a 4.2% interest in Igas.

Could it be that Odey are also taking an interest in IOG?

It would fit with their strategy.

https://www.ft.com/content/ed11c971-be02-47dc-875b-90762b35080e

An interesting read.

Reps have expressed unhappiness about this take-or-pay contract before, but nothing came of it then. Reps know the details of this contract already and that it has a sovereign guarantee.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/reps-summon-ministers-others-over-planned-sale-of-power-plants/

https://www.blueprint.ng/reps-queries-nbet-over-power-purchase-agreements/

Reps committee says more next week.

Credit to itsriskythat for posting on ADVFN

Rarely do you see several trades of 1,000,000 and 500,000 shares and that’s a substantial position changing hands.

In my opinion it's wrong to worry about a windfall tax if Liz Truss becomes the next leader which seems most likely.

Liz truss has just ruled out a windfall tex. Four days ago at the leadership debate in Cheltenham, Liz truss said this:

"I absolutely don't support a windfall tax"

"I don't think profit is a dirty word"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_BbN2PZjIU

skip to 1:00:25 - 1:01:20

Massive rise in futures prices .. £5.90 per therm come December. Looking at IOG price today you'd think Bacton terminal had shutdown!

82% of the LNG from the Freeport plant was headed towards UK and Europe and plant now on fire. UK gas prices jump >30%.

Very good point made that Harbour have a central forecast based on $100 oil and 200p gas

UK NBP June future has just jumped on declaration of force majeure for Ukraine pipeline

https://twitter.com/a_schroeder1985/status/1524028568845623297?s=10&t=n7clFMwoq2ZyHR8WgXukcw

What the score with FTSE100 entry?

Trading and operations update is 11th May

New slides from the AGM operational update are uploaded to the IOG investor page.

Clearly the period ahead is going to be very busy. Includes drilling two wells at Southwark, pipe-laying and trenching, FID for Nailsworth in Phase 2, appraisal drilling at Goddard and Kelham, and entering new UKCS licensing round.

As well as maintaining 100% uptime at Blythe and Elwood, optimising production, and permanently fixing the chemical injection fault.

How does the Blythe and Elggod production for March and April compare to finnCap broker research with figures provided by IOG?

Stable daily production in the range 55-65MMcf/d gross. The finnCap estimates were for 30MMcf/d at Blythe and 20Mmcf/d at Elwood as 2022 average production. The corresponding daily rates over the period of production from mid March are 37.2MMcf/d and 22.7MMcf/d which is a combined 60MMcf/d.

So exactly predicted. Meanwhile the condensate production is currently much higher than expected but likely to drop off over th reminder of the year.

So a sigh of relief that production is as exactly as expected and now supports the finnCap target price of 66p based on a 200p/therm average for 2022 and 100p/therm for 2021 and 45p over the longer term.

European Union will oppose Putin’s blackmail

https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1519304097559683073?s=21&t=tZ3ox4tm64eGkUK-TGd1Xg

Sudden price move for gas.