Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This is good news because the Supreme Court found no reason to deny Cadogan an appeal.
So Pirkivska licence renewal should be validated when the Supreme Court judges have looked at the case papers.
S
"The management team are fully committed to creating substantial growth in the short to medium term and to support this ambition we are looking to bring in up to 3 new members."
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2404879532/?refId=dZ51u600Rs2xu7COIRBj8w%3D%3D
"We are focused on operating in countries where we can make a difference to local communities, where we can play a strategic role in the energy sector and where we can make a positive impact on the socio-economic development of the country."
How many other companies in the sector can say that?
An article about the Calabar power plant exporting 70MW to Togo and negotiations to supply 100MW to an industrial cluster.
https://dailypost.ng/2021/03/10/ndphc-to-sell-electricity-to-eligible-customers-signs-ppa-with-togo/
Although a similar article first appeared a couple of weeks ago, this one includes pics of some power plants in the NDPHC power portfolio. The pics are of Omotoshu, Olorunshogu, Ihovbor, Geregu and Alaoji power plants.
Shame it is missing a pic of Calabar power plant. The article also commends Accugas for its uninterrupted supply to the Calabar plant.
https://www.completesports.com/nigeria-ekuta-qualifies-for-judo-at-tokyo-2021-olympic-games/
https://guardian.ng/news/akwa-ibom-woos-u-s-government-on-deep-seaport-project/
Says a lot about the quality of the Rockrose assets as SJ always associated with top quality businesses.
Interesting that Steve Jenkins joined the board at Viaro Energy in June just before the announcement of a takeover offer for Rockrose ...
"Viaro had $950m turnover in 2019. Its directors include Stephen Jenkins, who ran the North Sea-focused Nautical Petroleum firm that Cairn Energy bought for £414m in 2012. RockRose shares closed up 702p at 1832p."
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/18565440.250m-takeover-provides-major-vote-confidence-north-sea/
https://viaro.co.uk/board-senior-management/
Maari acquisition is being held up until Q2 by new regulations?
The Minister has instructed her officials to update the law that regulates oil and gas drilling in New Zealand – the Crown Minerals Act. The aim is to strengthen those decommissioning rules so that companies can be relied upon to clean up their mess. This update is pencilled in for early 2021.
https://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/story/will-omv-get-away-with-palming-off-the-dying-maari-oil-field-to-jadestone-energy-without-cleaning-up-their-mess/
Unicem has not been mentioned in any discussion of receivables and cash collections, but Unicem is a very important customer for Accugas that represents some 28% of Accugas' total revenue.
Cement production at the Unicem plant has been increasing through this year and Lafarge's Q3 results posted strong sales growth. When Unicem's business is doing well, it follows Accugas should be benefiting by being paid on time and it is even possible that Take-or-Pay volumes of gas have been exceeded in recent months. The share price tells its own story:
https://uk.reuters.com/companies/WAPCO.LG
https://www.lafarge.com.ng/unicem
https://www.proshareng.com/search?q=lafarge&atime=0&relevance=0&page=1
Bigspike. Thanks for sharing what Transcorp are planning to do at Ughelli plant. And after getting government approval for their Afam acquisitions the shares continue their recovery ...
https://uk.reuters.com/companies/TRANSCO.LG/charts
I echo that sentiment to Bigspike. Thanks for your research.
Following up some of your points, I’m not sure if Transcorp are planning on being gas suppliers? Seems unlikely, as the Ughelli and Utorogu gas plants that supply gas to Transcorp's flagship power plant at Ughelli are both operated by Shell SPDC. The Transcorp Ughelli plant is in Delta State which is very distant from the Afam power zone in Rivers State.
Over in Rivers State, the dominant supplier is SPDC, as the preferred gas supplier into the Afam power zone. The Rivers State government’s gas master plan says that SPDC is allocated a gas concession over a large supply area, which includes the Afam power zone. Hence the interruptible GSA between Accugas and Sahara for the supply gas to the FIPL plant at Afam; this IGSA is supplementary to the existing agreement that FIPL have with SPDC.
SPDC currently supply gas to the Afam power zone from their Okoloma gas plant adjacent and over the road from all the Afam power plants. The question is whether the Okoloma plant can increase supply sufficiently to meet the planned increase in production which will be substantial. I don't know whether Okoloma uses non-associated gas and therefore SPDC is able to up its supply without increasing its oil production, or whether SPDC have had problems with gas supply this year?
Accugas has proven itself to be a reliable supplier of non-associated gas and will soon be sending gas into the NGC pipelines running into the Afam power zone in order to supplement the existing GSA with SPDC at the FIPL Afam plant. No reason why Accugas cannot strike a deal with Transcorp for supplying the new Afam III Fast power plant and also augmenting the existing gas supply at the currently operational Afam IV plant, but on an interruptible basis like its agreement with FIPL.
The Nigerian fund managers have been re-carbonising their portfolios with Transcorp.
Buying of Transcorp shares has been pushing up the share price since the government's approval for the $395m purchase of the Afam IV and Afam III Fast Power plants. The share price has now regained in short order all of its losses due to COVID in Q1:
https://uk.reuters.com/companies/TRANSCO.LG/charts
http://www.nse.com.ng/Issuers-section/listed-securities/company-details?isin=NGTRANSCORP7
So Nigerian investors seemingly have no issues with Transcorp’s Afam plants getting paid. This can be taken as a positive sign of the payment improvement ahead throughout the gas and power supply value chains.
Keep fingers crossed that when news of an increase in Accugas’ infrastructure utilisation and/or the addition of new customers is released, there will be a similar re-carbonising of some portfolios with Savannah leading to a Transcorp-like recovery.
To be clear that the Afam plants just purchased by Transcorp were not owned by FIPL. It's confusing because there are several Afam plants. Transcorp will now own the Afam III Fast Power plant and the Afam IV plant. FIPL owns the site with the Afam I and II plants. But only one is complete, the other is still under construction.
The FIPL Afam power plant isn't operational today. Though FIPL has an existing gas sales agreement with Shell SPDC and is connected to gas supplied through the NGC pipeline. Savannah has an interruptible sales agreement to augment Shell's GSA. The pipeline has fallen into disuse, and the plan is for NGC to clean and test the pipeline. Last update was in June .. "NGC pipeline requires some cleaning up work because it hasn’t been used in anger for several years, committee in place to get it done, certainly over the course of the next month or so expect to get the FIPL contract moving forward". Suspicion is that working group with NGC was delayed somewhat due to COPVID restrictions.
On 18th October 2020 ..
Akwa Ibom State Governor formally received the official gazette from the Federal Government signalling the approval for the 50,000 hectares Liberty Oil and Gas Free Zone (OGFZ) in the State.
https://naija247news.com/2020/10/18/gov-udom-receives-liberty-oil-gas-free-zone-license/#.X5h6ki-l1Bw
Reading into the detail of the Q&A with the State Governor on pages 32 and 33 of the Savannah Energy Annual Report ....
"What is your vision of the future relationship between Savannah Energy and the Akwa Ibom State?"
"The relationship between Savannah Energy and Akwa Ibom is an enduring one. We expect Savannah to continue to expand its operations in the State. As the power situation gradually improves in the State and Savannah expands gas supply to new industrial customers and our planned Ibaka Deep-Sea Port, we hope many more international investors and industries will be attracted to Akwa Ibom State."
As well as being excellent news for Akwa Ibom State, the approval of the Liberty OGFZ provides multiple opportunities for expansion by Savannah in taking Accugas' gas to new industrial customers. Savannah has the infrastructure already in-place across the new Liberty OGFZ and will be able to exploit the strategic value of its Accugas network.
More information here on the new Liberty OGFZ ..
https://sweetcrudereports.com/liberty-oil-gas-free-zone-to-create-7000-jobs-fg/
barrelsandbonds. Per the annual report .. the Nigerian Assets have been assessed by the well-respected geo-technical consultancy CGG Services (UK) Ltd (“CGG”) as being expected to generate US$130 million of near-term annualised cashflows, on a maintenance adjusted take-or-pay basis. In response to the question at the GM about how much of the cashflow would end up at the Company level, AK said "we assume a rule of thumb that between 15% and 25% of cashflows which are generated by the group ultimately end up able to be spent on unrestricted uses".
So AK answered many excellent questions at the GM. This was one ....
Could you please comment on the planned development of the Qua Iboe power plant and its gas sales agreement with Exxon Mobil, also note for example the planned development of the Utapate field, which is planned to include a 200MMscfpd gas facility. Are these opportunities or threats? Is it conceivable that parallel gas transport pipelines will be built or will lead to competition to Savannah? How is the company planning to respond to these developments?
Answer:
"In both cases there are opportunities, there’s opportunities to work with both of those projects.
In terms of the Qua Iboe power plant, that’s a long proposed power plant to be built by Blackstone, next to the Qua Iboe terminal which is about 20km away from us. And that would take flare gas from the Exxon Mobil developments and there’s probably some opportunities to help them with liquid stripping etc. etc. but I wouldn’t say that’s a major opportunity for us. I don’t believe it would cannibalise anything we are currently doing as it would sell power into the grid separate to us. That said entirely the length of time that project has been talked about and the lack of progress so I don’t really see that as a mid-term project, it would be capacity if it ever did for Nigeria, but there’s not been a lot of progress in last five to ten years.
On the Utapate field which is a large oil field that was producing and is about .. is going to be developed by the state oil company, which also sits in Aqua Ibom. I think if people look at that NNPC’s publicly said they would like to access our infrastructure to develop that field. So that’s very firmly an opportunity and we’d generate tariff revenue for NNPC gas to go through our field. In terms of just commenting on what’s been said publicly by NNPC, as I’ve said, ….. 3rd party tariff discussions ….. three month ..… eminent time frame.
But the question really refers to specific opportunities, there’s loads and loads of these sorts of discussions going on all the time, and the really specific question is .. I haven’t read any reports, spoken to any counter-parties that would consider trying to replicate our infrastructure. Even if someone thought it was economic to do so, which I don’t think it is, but if someone did think it was economic to do so, the government wouldn’t allow it, because obviously that would reduce their tax revenues going forward, so it wouldn’t make any sense for them."
Sourced: OML 13 is a large block in Akwa Ibom state in the southeast of the country. It is reported to hold in-place volumes of over 900 million barrels of oil and 5 tcf of gas. OML 13 has been dormant since its main field Utapate ceased in 1995.
https://nipc.gov.ng/2019/07/25/nnpc-signs-3-15bn-deal-financing-for-oml-13/
The figures demonstrate the huge growth in gas supply needed in both the short term and over the next decade:
https://thenationonlineng.net/new-5420mw-can-only-serve-3-5m-electricity-consumers-investigation/
The Minister of State for Power has just concluded a tour of the Calabar power plant.
The reason for the visit is that the Calabar plant owner, NDPHC has signed a PPA with Niger Delta Electricity Holding Company to supply an additional 100MW to service users in Calabar and its environs with 24hour electricity. Unfortunately many of the plans for improvement in the Nigerian power sector come to nothing, but this one looks like the real deal, as it appears to be achievable with minor improvements to the electricity supply network in and around Calabar. An additional 100MW is within the capacity of the Calabar plant and would mean nominations for Accugas gas might increase by about 27MMscfgd.
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/08/phedc-partners-ndphc-for-24-hours-power-supply-in-calabar/
Lifting of cross state travel restrictions allows auditors into Akwa Ibom state
https://twitter.com/DigiCommsNG/status/1292817365877624837?s=20
and Nigerian international flights are to resume. Nice graphic.