Member Info for Itsriskythat

Shell Nigeria is expanding its gas marketing to offer gas solutions that work with renewables.

"Shell has established a new business line in Nigeria to expand natural gas sales to meet the rapidly growing energy needs of wholesale customers and provide cleaner energy solutions in country."

"Shell Energy Nigeria’s gas solutions are designed to partner with other sources of energy – including renewables – to provide competitively priced and flexible energy, while helping the country to transition to a lower carbon energy system"

https://punchng.com/shell-unveils-new-energy-business-line-in-nigeria/

The way forward.

Thordon says "The real SP value will settle once dividends are restarted."

Dividends are possible but so is a share buyback. The enterprise value of JKX, which is market capitalisation plus provisions for rental fees minus cash, could turn negative before long. If that occurred JKX could buyback all its shares in issue and satisfy future rental fee claims and be cash positive and free of provisions as a private business.

You don't have to believe that the current gas price in Ukraine of $935 / Mcm is sustainable for this to happen, only that the gas prices being paid by Moldova and Bulgaria on new contracts signed with Gazprom are setting a new baseline for the future gas prices this winter season. The Gazprom prices agreed are $535 / Mcm and $450 / Mcm. These compare to a gas price $431 / Mcm realised by JKX in Q3. In effect the latest Q3 price is going to be the baseline this winter.

Calculation of JKX baseline cashflows in Q4 and Q1 says that sometime in the New Year the enterprise value of JKX will turn negative unless the share price appreciates substantially.

What is is about Enwell that makes it more attractive than JKX? Or so it seems looking at the price which keeps rising.

Taking a look at Enwell now the share price drop in the first half of October was short-lived and the share price is back at a 2021 high.

Not up to speed on Enwell, but I recall that some their production will be lost in early 2022 when there is a planned facilities upgrade.

I would have though that Ukrainian gas and oil price increases would work equally in favour of both companies?

Today's Dutch TTF gas Dec 21 price is down at 78.6 / Mcm which is equivalent to $880 / Mcm but that is still double the Ukrainian gas price realised by JKX in Q3 which was $431 / Mcm. Might expect that JKX cashflow would have now doubled since Q3.

No worries over the gas price fundamentals changing in the short term.

A TASS report this afternoon says that gas prices are set to remain at the current level according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak.

hTTps://tass.com/economy/1351999

The results from a 10 day flow testing of the R110 well on the Rudenkivske licence won't be out for at least a week.

It's already gone past the point for a complete failure of R110 to hit the target. If the reservoir section's net pay was too thin to justify completion of the well then negative results would have been reported by now.

TD was on 10th October at the earliest, then allow a few days for completion and perforation of the well before starting a a suite of production tests.

I think the flow test results are more likely to be positive the longer this goes on before an RNS.

Alexander Paraschiy: "The company’s decision to invest into drilling in the Rudenkivske field looks brave but risky, taking into account that earlier attempts by the company to develop this field were not successful. However, if the drilling is successful, it would significantly add to the company’s value."

Increase in Ukrainian gas production from 521Mcmd to 586Mcmd from Q2 to Q3.

Ukrainian gas price realised $431/Mcm compared to Energy exchange price UAH 14,500/Mcm. Estimated Q3 revenue $23.0m contribution from Ukrainian gas

Q4 gas price in the range UAH 26-39,000/Mcm. Estimated Q4 revenue $40.7m - $60.9m contribution from Ukrainian gas.

The best results will be this quarter.

Q1 $10.1m, Q2 $11.9m, Q3 $23.0m and Q4 $40.7 - $60.9m revenue

Apart from the unexpected news on Chad, several well-flagged pieces of corporate and Nigerian news were expected in H1. It seems to me a long time without an RNS?

Share suspension was on 2nd June and the Chad subsidiary was incorporated on 2nd July ...

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13490881

My initial reaction to learning that Fady Khallouf gains 5% bonus on success in recovering the proper money was to be cynical.

Firstly I'd rather the Cadogan retains 95% of the recovered amount than loses everything or as good as if the legal teams get into action and take ten years to follow due process. Secondly it won't cost Cadogan 5% because it is proposed Fady takes half the bonus in shares which costs nothing. As a final point he knows better than anyone the personnel involved here and is better placed to drive the recovery of the Proger money than an independent legal expert managing the process.

So overall it isn't such a bad way to go.

Negotiations ongoing with OMV and company "expecting" to extend the long stop beyond 30th June.

Option 5. however unlikely ..

Agreement reached with Proger board to IPO. This would provide Cadogan with an exit at a market value for its investment in Proger.

Regarding being able to sell but no to buy any, it sounds like the market maker is wanting to fill a buy order and a buyer is taking advantage of the nervous sellers.

This is good news because the Supreme Court found no reason to deny Cadogan an appeal.

So Pirkivska licence renewal should be validated when the Supreme Court judges have looked at the case papers.

S

"The management team are fully committed to creating substantial growth in the short to medium term and to support this ambition we are looking to bring in up to 3 new members."

https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2404879532/?refId=dZ51u600Rs2xu7COIRBj8w%3D%3D

"We are focused on operating in countries where we can make a difference to local communities, where we can play a strategic role in the energy sector and where we can make a positive impact on the socio-economic development of the country."

How many other companies in the sector can say that?

An article about the Calabar power plant exporting 70MW to Togo and negotiations to supply 100MW to an industrial cluster.

https://dailypost.ng/2021/03/10/ndphc-to-sell-electricity-to-eligible-customers-signs-ppa-with-togo/

Although a similar article first appeared a couple of weeks ago, this one includes pics of some power plants in the NDPHC power portfolio. The pics are of Omotoshu, Olorunshogu, Ihovbor, Geregu and Alaoji power plants.

Shame it is missing a pic of Calabar power plant. The article also commends Accugas for its uninterrupted supply to the Calabar plant.

https://www.completesports.com/nigeria-ekuta-qualifies-for-judo-at-tokyo-2021-olympic-games/

https://guardian.ng/news/akwa-ibom-woos-u-s-government-on-deep-seaport-project/

Says a lot about the quality of the Rockrose assets as SJ always associated with top quality businesses.