Member Info for ismalia

Yes we have a massive undervaluation IMO. The cash at bank exceeds the M/C for starters and the two investments which will produce positive returns at some stage are in at about £20m. The rig sale will be completed within the next few months and the investee company should profit from that. The result could be reinvestment in the business or a return of cash to AMED. MRG should also have developed their broking business into other commodities. The management I feel are determined to grow AMED in the region, an area which is seen to be fast growing. With the free float very small any good news could well reflect in a rerate of the sp to much nearer asset value IMO.

It looks as if we must have posted about the same time and I share your well undervalued opinion. Also and importantly the management will be keen to perform as the company last raised £5m+ at £1 ps. Once the sale of the rig is complete I do wonder if AMED will sell its interest and deploy the cash into other investments. The management is well healed and with good connections and will want to use AMED as a vehicle.

We should have the interims during the next couple of weeks and an update on the rig build. The M/C of about �4m is substantially less than the �13m invested in the rig and MGR and once the rig is sold there could be a large return of cash. Also there is more than �4m in cash. Could be cheap and we may see a useful spike as the free float is very thin.

Of interest the Allenby Note told us that last year admin costs included aborted corporate acquisition costs which tells us that TRAF is seeking a potential RTO which IMO is a must to scale the business

The price of Iron Ore continues to be positive so this should assist MRG.

Pity about the Miss RNS but the CEOs report did say that the property sale quoted would not happen until the spring/summer of 17 but Allenby had factored the sale into the current year and the change of Accounting Policy unfortunately changed all that. Profit for this yearI I think will come in at about £600-£650k and this and new site buys and positive news on planning at Staplehurst should still make the sp attractive at 2p IMO

Yes provides an opportunity to add a few more at what I feel is a steal. At 12p we are buying 12p in cash with the investments in for nothing. Iron ore on the up and rig sale to be completed within the next few months.

At some point they will need to scale the business by a RTO. There will be a number of similar sized developers who have a determination to grow but need a quote and TRAF fits that bill. I cannot see the CEO with 78pc of the company not wanting such a move once TRAF is in decent profit which it should be this year. Not on the radar at the moment but tucking away at up to 2p or so will lok a good move in twelve months or so.

Only small buys last week yet there was still a positive mark up. Any continued buying however small should push the sp to 20p or more IMO. This is not wishful thinking as the assets of cash and investments are there. Perhaps the Resourses part puts potential investors off as they feel Amedeo simply speculates on digging holes in the ground. A positive half year next month could be a game changer for the company and its sp.

Yes I feel with AMED you have to be invested long before any good news as the liquidity or lack of it will see the market re rate. The rig has been built to order so only now needs to be delivered and paid for. The yard is capable of working on other projects as well as rigs and of course rigs will always need to be replaced whatever the price of oil. MRG should continue to source further brokering. The cash held could well be invested in a new venture and the investment in the yard could be sold to the other investor that would provide a substantial war chest. With Singapore being quite a hub now there could be a number of opportunities and I am sure the next phase of AMEDs development is currently being worked on

I thought the last fund raise was at £1

Did you mean 6 weeks davetc

Consistent buying and with the market short of stock small buys are helping the sp. There is of course some £4m cash so there could be a deal on the cards. Singapore is currently one of the most active centres and it would not be surprising if the management is contemplating a further investment. The sale of the rig will bring in a substantial amount of cash to the investee company to progress further development.

These should be due within the next few weeks - September time and I wonder if this mornings interest is ahead of that. Market not very liquid and any positive news will spike the price so getting in now or topping up may be prudent.

It may be of interest to note that the second half produced a gross profit of 28% on turnover of £1.7m. If TRAF can do the turnover they say they will in the current year - some £7m, maintain margins and maintain overheads you can see the potential profit that can be made to justify the sp target of 3.2p

Thanks for that Breton and I do accept that cash generation is a problem for TRAF in progressing organically, but I do feel an acquisition or a fund raise when reasonable profits are made and the sp is a little higher must, or should be considered. Unfortunately the problems associated with the Oakhurst Park site did not kick start the business as perhaps was thought, and the hold up with Staplehurst has not helped sentiment. Oakhurst is out the way now and Staplehurst looks as if it can get approval. Also Sheerness has started. This is effectively a family business and the CEO with his holding of 78% I am sure will be happy to dilute if the right acquisition comes along. The current year will be the test IMO and for the moment I feel there is a chance to see a substantial improvement in sp value on a 12/18 month view. I wish you well

Breton - I think you may wish to wait for another six months or so having held for three years. The development programme for the current year is some £7m+ with a profit forecast of some £950k base on the Broker note, and the Chairmans report was upbeat about additional sites including Staplehurst. Allenby has a 3.2p target.

Perhaps you are right Jarv. Like a lot of smaller stocks they are driven by news flow so the next scheduled will be the interims in December. By then the company will know better as to how the developments are going, how they have moved forward on Staplehurst and perhaps a better indication of what the year to March will bring. I feel the potential still makes the shares look undervalued and when the potential is realised there could be quite a spike. I am happy to hold and even add in anticipation at anything below 2p

Once the prospects are taken in I feel there should be a steady improvement over the coming weeks. Starting Sheerness and with Staplehurst up and running again things are looking up

Staplehurst is back on the table and Sheerness has started. Other sites being sought so prospects look good this year and the Allenby forecast looks as if it can be met on earnings and a target price of their 3.2p