RE: Perhaps??5 Mar 2020 17:48
Opu - we all need to grasp the hard and ruthless fact that GKP produces and is forced to sell to a sole customer (SOMO) for a small % markup - in a land deliciously rife with corruption at all levels.
Just witness today's news leak re Russia slipping a Kurd 'consultant' (i.e. a tribal in a position of power) $250M to get things done.
So why on earth would China Oil Inc. pay billions for GKP to turn a buck via a short term right to access the mighty Shaikan's resources - which then must go directly onto the International market via SOMO and would have to be bought back at market prices to satiate China's post Corona virus expansions ?
I witnessed how China Inc. operated in Angola, the deal to secure Kurd oil will be similar here I guarantee:.
China will secure oil at preferential prices from SOMO by bartering technology,materials, labour (they flooded Angola with homeland criminals at zero labour cost to Xi) - doing the sweaty work rebuilding the roads,rails,dams, infrastructure, hotels and business parks to secure the tribal's ongoing approvals).
Neat, huh - a perfect win/win (except for the convicts).
Why therefore get involved with buying a troublesome little oil company - when a low cost offset a-la Angola bartering model gets the product at a preferential price anyway ?
Wait and see.
This is not BP operating in Persia at the turn of the century - finding and producing the stuff at a 99% markup in return for an occasional Rolls-Royce tomthe Shah, and a handful of colored beads to the tribal's.
JF was not joking when he concluded that GKP would have to be turned into a 'boring little oil company'.
Draw parallels here as to why DNO and Genel are also going nowhere fast.
Relish the promise of excellent dividends and the buyback strategy to use up the profits then (in the wild hope that the treasury shares get cancelled of course !).
If 90% of shares get bought back and cancelled, we may see a share price in the teens eventually.