Member Info for Invstrat

Concern that today's request for donations is a warning shot from Hawrami and the Barzani Boys - GKP's substantial survival fund at bank is obviously seen as up for grabs by our hosts.
It will go the same way as our donations 'to fight IF' (via Lebanese bank of course) which drove us to near bankruptcy, and regrettably the population will see none of it.
Should JF use any of it to unwisely pay out a dividend - we will feel the full wrath of Hawrami once more - in prolonged non-payment of our monthly invoices.
Tough situation for JF to handle once more - 'like dancing with the Devil' ?

Is KRG honoring the 250Mbbls/ day to Baghdad - does anyone know ?
Perhaps the Kurd population understandably enraged due to common knowledge that corruption divvy-up is still the first priority on the budget, with no apparent progress on bringing culprits to justice and repatriation of their personal $Billions.
Don't expect JF et al to take a cut in salary commensurate with running a small, non-achieving little oil company.
Salaries seem to be based on what peers running serious Big Oil are paid.
Delusions of Grandure ?

Stay strong and make every day special for you and your family now Mikey.
Your lucid and intelligent contributions always a priority read for me over the years - even the way you report your recent situation is an object lesson in clear communication.
A lot of guys routing for you on here Mikey.

MNR know damned well that we are cash flush, so they won't hesitate to default on our invoices - of course.
Memo to JF: instruct our new bean counter to keep a tally on interest due on their mounting debt - if you dare.

Saved by the virus.
MNR have mega excuse for defaulting on payments. Private Swizz bank accounts of the usual suspects will be overflowing then.
JF has a mega excuse for further delaying the fantasy 55k target which he wasn't going to reach anyway.
Cashti will be following Cristian Ronaldo's example and donating several billions of his own savings to care for the sick.

Max: Unfortunately the strategy around the BB shares campaign is for a more selfish internal reason

T'man - can't apportion blame within a team due to black swan/force majure events.
However - my Madam Team Boss wants to know exactly why I bought 16k golden turds here over yesterday at an average of just over 90p - when I should have been shorting the living daylights out of it, and incidentally - wants to know why I didn't get into Ferrari stock 2 was ago.
I'll give her crystal balls indeed......

No dealings: Maybe JF is out at the MNR begging for missing payments ?

Could be a long Summer - until this rockets back up to 1p.
What strategy is best meanwhile: shut-in production as MNR won't be up for paying us via the current double cast iron excuses (PoO, Corona), and current outstanding payments will not be honored, of course.
MNR payment hierarchy is: skin-offs, keeping population from starvation/rioting)...... then we come a miserable 3rd.
They see we have some cash to fall back on - which they will consider is indirectly their's to play with - and we have a track record of propping them up without a squeak or recompense.
Dividends would be an unwise miracle now, and payment there-off could put us under sooner.
China looks to be in some kinda recovery - maybe they will launch a lowball bid when we reach the chasm later in the year.
Should we buy out our major holders as they must be considering leaving anyway.
Any of you wise guys got some other suggestions ?

Neat T'man .......... ;)

Can't believe we are back at 1p (and falling).
Amazing what corruption and mis-management can do.

Not many at that break even Dr.
You sure you haven't calculated with a factor of 10 error ?

Thanks for that analysis T'man - math behind your work a bit out of my league, but good to know a measure of the boundaries here.
Wonder when the major holders will pull and cut their losses ?
I don't expect the MNR will rescue us for old times sake :(

So Dr Simpson your average is around £15 to break even ? Welcome to the club.
Guess it depends on what a buyer will offer for us - and if that offer is prematurely accepted in forthcoming times of desperation.
Presume the major holders won't approve a fire sale price until the cash at bank is blown - on a mix of: the inevitable next round of internal bonuses, whether the buybacks ever get cancelled (as DNO honorably did recently), further eroneous drilling targets, continuing failure to comprehend the geology, wrongly specced downhole jewelry, a further era of defaulted/delayed payments from the hallowed MNR, resurgence of IS, loss of access to the export pipeline, squabbles with Baghdad over the carve-up, force majure from the MNR re GKP's obvious inability to grow production causing them to rescind the PSC ..... on the other hand ??

Divis are at the whim of management - so that would be a 'no'.
Think "what are the chances that the MNR will be even remotely inclined to pay us anything until this blows over".
However - corruption backhanders will be honored in full.

Soon time to consider a substantial buy - as soon as the SP sinks under £1 and we have more in cash and receivables than this company is worth !
Unreal.
Maybe JF should go for a monster £200M buyback (is that feasible?).

Thanks - great work there T'man. This type of contribution is so valuable for us trying to make/predict sensible decisions.
Re the perfect storm which we are suffering under right now: thank heavens that we have some cash to maybe tide us through.
Maybe not a good time to announce a round of staff awards and rewards at this juncture JF !

Seems feasible there T'man. Profit Oil is the bottom line that really counts to extend our survival.
Some random Sunday evening thoughts:
None of the small Western OCs appear to be making any headway by operating in this region, so I guess the IOCs are still not forming an orderly queue to take any of us out of this sustained misery ?
One would think that the starvation period of subsistence payments - when we bent over backwards to near bankruptcy to support the MNR, the Barzani dynasty, the ongoing pilfering and corruption at the top of the tree, and the starving honest people of the region - would have bought us some favor, but obviously all is forgotten. That reminds me - wasn't there a mounting debt and associated interest due to us over these minimal invoices which were incurred during that period ? Did Sami ever get round to invoicing it before he exitted stage left ? or has it mysteriously disappeared too ?
That much vaunted $3/bbl lifting cost reflects how efficiently we are operating for the benefit of our masters - but not much in it for us when things percolate down to the PO bottom line.
Perhaps our lifting costs should be "reviewed" to our benefit - as I assume they are in effect reimbursable ?
There must be mounting pressure on GKP et al to up production due to PoO freefall ?
Could this be turned to our advantage by JF soliciting the MNR's approval of our stalled FDP ? - assuming he and the boys can actually respond to the situation by quickly cranking up production - or are they at a total loss as to how to deal with Shaikan ?

Of course not ! Think infra(structure) i.e. hardware that could be hauled off site in dead of night.
Hence a token 10M bucks if it reaches the border ;)

That spells things out there theoricist - but as a realicist I would count the physical infra as an asset in the equation ?
Probably not worth much if it comes down to fire sale valuation here as it failed to be fit for purpose to deliver any resemblance of the fantasy growth we were promised 'though.
Any takers at 10M bucks ?