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I don't like the idea of MATD going it alone. Aren't success rates for drilling just 55 to 60 %? Look at how many wells Soco had to do for its measly 350, bopd.

We really want the capital raises to end, as they are always dine at huge discounts for the forward sales contracts with a financial institution. They still consider Mongolia to be high risk according to what MB said in the presentation.

I wonder if Gobi is covered by the existing 3D seismic data by the way ?

Adw189 ; good point that Gobi can be developed completely separately to any Heron farm out deal, and this time with MATD retaining 100% of any profit.

There have been recent oil discoveries in parts of Brazil and Africa by the way - this has alarmed OPEC, so they are trying to fight back through over production. And they are trying to also fight back against the US producers. It's an oil production war really.

Re the oil price - the Saudis need 96 Dollars in order to balance their budget. Right now they must be running up a big deficit, however OPEC are trying to deter US oil producers with their high exploration and production costs, as well as explorers and producers in parts of Brazil and Africa. Hence OPEC upping production sharply in recent months which means that like during COVID oil is actually being stored on ships. In other words there is a big worldwide oil surplus right now.

OPEC will only keep up this tactic of increased production for so long how ever. Farmout partners will be looking long term at the next 20 or so years. Oil is due to run out worldwide in about 50 years. The producers in the US and other countries who will feel the most pain will be those with the highest costs, and OPEC know this very well.

"US shale production, with costs far higher than those of Saudi Arabia or Russia, has benefitted greatly from the kingdom’s constraints on oil production. Shale is first in the OPEC targeting line. The United States is already producing some 13.3 million barrels of crude oil per day—more than any other country in history. OPEC officials said they wanted their relaxed quotas to inject “a lot of uncertainty” into investment plans in the United States.

It is not just American oil. OPEC wants to deter ambitions everywhere. Big announcements of investments or new discoveries of oil in Brazil, Somalia, Suriname, and Namibia are also threats. By flooding the market and pushing down prices, OPEC can push returns on high-cost projects into negative territory or—better yet—discourage future investments by raising doubts about long-run prices. "

Good job then that Mongolia is low cost...This backs up the argument that potential farm out partners will see the low cost of extraction in Mongolia as a huge benefit when the pressure is currently being exerted by OPEC on high cost producers.

$96 rather....

The Saudis need $93 a barrel to balance their budget ;

https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/opec-is-pushing-down-oil-prices-despite-a-cash-crunch-in-saudi-arabia-here-is-why/

Thanks Mullins.

With oil due to run out in about 50 years ( the estimates seem to vary ) and the field lasting 20 to 25 years, they will be taking a long term view no doubt.

Anyway, there's no doubt in my mind that all four renewable RTB projects will be sold in the near future. Combined they are worth $90m to $180m to MATD.

Thornogson ; given that my brother in law will shortly be starting a programme for chemo ( stage3 ) yes, I am thin skinned when people start talking about wishing cancer on people.

You do make some daft comments on here.

And presumably they wouldn't have diverted some of the funds from the last capital raise towards the RTB projects if at least one of the four wasn't approaching the stage whereby it is ready to be sold. ACWA are no doubt hovering....

Manx ; in the 5 years prior to PC buying block 19 for around $150m when adjusted for inflation, the price of oil was as follows below. Yes, you also have to adjust these figures for inflation, however a barrel of oil was nonetheless extremely low in the years prior to the sale happening. And a field will last 20 to 25 years. Worldwide oil supply in that time period is only going to shrink considerably - oil is only expected to last until about 2052.

2000: Approximately $30/barrel

2001: Around $26/barrel

2002: Around $26/barrel

2003: Around $31/barrel

2004: Approached $40/barrel

2005: Approached $57/barrel ( the block 19 sale I think happened early in 2005, so figures would have been based on the previous few years )

Thornogson ; freedom and free speech have boundaries - you've never heard of the " harm principle" or John Stuart Mill then ?

Gravy - I did my best to get him banned a month or two ago. I went to a lot of trouble in fact.

If you want to pursue this tactic, you need to speak to Ofcom, as the mods never seem to ban him. I communicated with the owner via an exchange of emails at the time.

" they need about 90 Dollars a barrel a year to balance their budget " I meant.

No idea why predictive text breaks up sentences for no reason...🙄

Thanks Proquo - as ever with you, really interesting observations.

I can't really understand the Saudis. I think I read once that they need about 90 Dollars. Barrel to balance their budget each year. Yet they seem happy to damage their national finances in order to take back a greater degree of market share. Maybe the idea is to put some US oil producers out of business ?

Any thoughts on the price of oil ?

I guess the more we can extract, the better, as due to increased production by OPEC there's talk of there being a similar surplus as there was during COVID. Hopefully Trump will step bach from imposing tariffs on China.

We may well be in the 50s with the price of oil over the next year or so. This shows the wisdom of diversifying the company - a masterstroke tactic by MB.

" Lies and half truths " yet I am addicted to reading them all instead of muting him via the filter button.

Gravy - if you had any common sense at all you would filter the idiot. Instead half the board is taken up every day with you and Margaritas telling him for the millionth time how much you hate him. Use your brain for once.