Member Info for investor33

richard wyckoff and more latterly, tom williams ( whose work i studied when i started trading intraday ftse futures ) always made the point that investors who win trade with the the smart professional money. those who lose are just solely obsessed with news items, and consequently often end up on the wrong side of the market nursing big losses.

as tom williams always used to say ' news is damaging to your wealth. ' what he meant is that a typical retail investor is prone to buying in on a professional smart money fomo pump and spike. seemingly that's what 'bad prophet did ' bought at around 7p and sold at about 2p - and now all he does is **** off the company, because his ego doesn't allow him to admit that he has been naïve about how it works, and he's involved with something that he's never allowed himself to try and understand.

to deal with a problem you first have to admit to yourself that you have a problem. if you listen to doc, again it's so much easier to just throw out every negativity you can think of to do with the fundamentals of the company rather than to think that maybe there's something that you just haven't understood about how markets work. that means having some degree of humility and open- mindedness , and some find that hard.....

Cybertron ; the MMs want those cheap shares so that they can sell into the next FOMO rally when the next RNS hits. Once there is very high volume again following an RNS then they can easily sell what they have accumulated in their ' warehouses ' when prices are low. In other words - accumulate when people are fearful and negative ( step forward Pro and Doc ) and distribute when people are greedy during a FOMO rally.

As someone wrote in the comment section below that clip which I posted yesterday about MM manipulation ;

" Thank you for making a video that explains exactly what market makers do, and how they manipulate the markets. Most videos talk about market makers like they are doing the world some kind of favour by “ensuring liquidity”. In reality, they are so big that they can move price points by dumping shares at a loss, buying in at the low they created, and then pumping the wave back up until they dump. "

Doc ; I suggest that you watch this ;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63BoycqDwIA

Doc ; "Sure, they hold positions to provide and orderly and liquid market but ultimately they are looking to make their money off the bid/offer spread. Holding a massively long position is highly risky for them. "

I will correct that - it's risky for them to hold a large long position close to previous resistance levels. It's far less risky to gradually accumulate at support levels or just below. And actually, they trade their own accounts as well, in addition to having an obligation to make a market. They are not the 'cricket umpire ' neutrals though that you naively believe them to be.

And they can see where stops are placed - which gives a great opportunity to pick up cheap shares with sudden hammer spikes down. Remember that time a year or so ago on an RNS release, when the price suddenly spiked massively down in a few minutes, and then magically recovered just as suddenly ? Lots of stops were triggered, and the MMs hoovered up extremely cheap shares just before a sharp move up.

Ask yourself - if there is a huge surge in volume as happened after the last RNS, and the algo bots are triggered into buying, and retail investors full of FOMO are jumping in, what do you think then happens given the sudden massive imbalance between supply and demand ? How do the MMs meet the demand to buy if there are few sellers around ? That's when they sell all those shares which they accumulated - in the case of just before the last RNS - at around 2.8p.

So they were busy selling them at between 4.5p to 5p as the price spiked up and FOMO had set in. Then when the volume drops off massively a couple of days later, the price is allowed to fall to a support level, where accumulation can begin again. Rinse and repeat - it's a time honoured method.

Accumulation and distribution theory and strategy is nothing new - Richard Wyckoff's work on technical analysis is up there with Charles Dow and other legendary stock market figures. I bet you've never heard of him ; https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/070715/making-money-wyckoff-way.asp

Doc ; "This has fallen because the days and weeks are passing by yet again. "

So why are there twice as many buyers as sellers today in terms of the monetary value of shares ? What you wrote is not logical. If sentiment is as bad as you make out, then surely it should be the opposite ? And anyway, only 2 seeks has elapsed since the last RNS - do you want one every week ?

The MMs are simply keeping the price marked down because they are busy accumulating so that they have plenty of shares to sell when the next RNS comes out. These are the players who really drive the market - them and the trading desks who kick in straight after an RNS release. Retail investors like you and me are simply small fry, and don't drive the price action.

Manx ; Nah - it's not about fundamentals today. The MMs dropped it to 3.8p the other day on the bid - some ' news' is just an excuse for them.

There are more than twice as many buys as sells today in terms of monetary value.

Coldjoe ; the ' strange trading ' is just down to the fact that the MMs control the price action. There have been more than twice as many buys as sells so far today, and yet people still believe naively that price action is driven entirely by supply and demand, and a textbook perfect Adam Smith's ' invisible hand ' of the market at play....Or people start saying that the last RNS was not as well worded as it could have been - or other fundamentals at play. which would explain why the price action is rooted to a support level, despite twice as much demand as supply today.

In reality, the MMs stock their warehouses as cheaply as they can like any sane retailer would do - buy low, sell high. Buy when people are fearful, and sell when people are greedy....If they accumulate in large amounts, and very suddenly, then they will move the market against themselves, and suddenly stocking that warehouse becomes a lot more expensive.... The MMs know that higher prices are likely in the near future, so they want a well stocked warehouse to sell from when the next RNS hits, and they want that warehouse inventory to have cost them as little as possible.

Hamm; I'm looking to day trade Nasdaq stocks in the near future using technical analysis, using the catalyst of a news release of the day which induces very high volume.

I've swung traded the likes of Jet2 recently - buying at around £8 and selling at around £14, but I'm now more interested in Nasdaq stocks because you can get quite large % gains in just one day - some are multibaggers in just a few hours.

FTSE 100 stocks aren't any good for intraday trading due to the lack of volatility and the spreads. I guess swing trading over a medium time frame might have worked for something like Rolls Royce is recent months - however there aren't many that have made such big gains in such a short time, so RR is a bit of an exception.

Healthy support at 4p - that's a major improvement on previous support of around 2.5p.

Decide whether you want to leave it all in there, or allocate a % to trade on the next RNS.....It will spike and then pullback no doubt as it has done on every other RNS. And volatility is always huge - the last pullback from the spike was about 25%. If you want lesser volatility then look at BP or Shell....

DazzerG ; it's nothing to do with fundamentals - this latest dip. It's all about normal price action after the high volume in the first couple of days during and straight after an RNS has died down, which is when the price action follows technical indicators. It's been the same after every RNS, and it will be the same after the next RNS. Right now we are back on low volume.

The only way to deal with it is to sell a % of a LTH holding in the spike straight after an RNS and then perhaps ( if you want ) buy back a couple of weeks later when the volume is low and there has been the pullback to test support levels.

Aeschylus ; LOL.

I hope the next RNS isn't too ' hear ' or ' hair ' raising.

'hair out ' I meant. One or two typos in that last post....

Master ; I know you don't look at charts, but it really pays off to study and understand price action. The pattern is always the same - straight after a positive RNS the price spike tests a previous resistance level. Then as the weeks elapse between RNS releases, the price tests a support level. In fact if this 4p support holds then the support will have moved up following the last RNS from about 2.5p to 4p, which is a sign of an uptrend.

People who are LTHs and are 100% focussed on fundamentals will just never see what is going on - they scratch their heads and say that the RNS was not worded as well as it could have been etc. Technical analysis is still the main factor with the price action unless their is a significant rerate if and when oil production properly starts. And even then there will be pullbacks which will show clearly on a chart as support levels - these penny shares are all about price action and price volatility. That's why so many swing traders trade these kind of penny shares, and LTHs are often left tearing their hear out and blaming this that and the other. I wont be sticking money into a penny share and just leaving it in going forward - and I have already decided to allocate x % of my existing holding to dipping in and out following an RNS.

" Isle of Man " I meant.

Stas20 ; I know full well that Matd is incorporated in the of Man - I have been invested in the company since 2019, and have participated on this board for quite a while too.

If I had a UK limited company, and I wanted to set up a subsidiary in say France, then I would have to formally open a French corporate entity over there according to French subsidiary laws. It doesn't alter the fact that the parent company is a UK company. That's why IMO it's not accurate to give the impression that Matd is primarily a western business.

Petro Matad's Chairperson is Enkhmaa Davaanyam - who also happens to be the CEO of Petrovis Group LLC....

A parent company is called a ' parent company ' for a good reason.....Petrovis LLC established Petro Matad as a subsidiary. As it says on the Petrovis website ; In order to discover enough oil resources in Mongolia and make the country independent in terms of energy and oil, Petrovis Group founded on December 31, 2004 the Petromatad LLC, which shall be engaged in oil exploration and production activities.

"Petromatad LLC managed to become the first company with a predominantly Mongolian ownership, whose shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange. "

https://en.petrovis.mn/

Sats20 ; regarding Matd being ' a western company ' I need to point out again that it is a subsidiary of the Petrovis Group, with Petrovis being the parent company. Have you looked at the Petrovis website ?

Yes, Matd is listed on the LSE - but that's because Petrovis wanted to tap western share capital investment. However the board of directors of Matd is full of Petrovis executives. Therefore it's far from being ' a western company. ' Now that the activists have cottoned on to this fact, they have gone quiet - after they were educated about this fact, they were no longer hostile.

The -Lockie; as a LTH I started buying back in 2019 and have now bought with some 15 tranches over the last 5 years. I've currently got just over a million shares @ at an average of 4.2p.

At times I have thought that I need my head examining...and throughout nearly all of that time I have been underwater - sometimes by 50%. It's been incredibly galling to watch these numerous spikes after and RNS, only for the price to then tank to a third of what it peaked at. If I was doing it again I would have just surfed the spikes, and dipped in and out. Or at least I would have traded a portion of my holding and just left the rest in. Sticking money in as a LTH is not a particularly smart strategy with these highly volatile AIM penny stocks I would say - I would never do that again.

Now I feel that the storm is over with this share, and calmer waters lie ahead, as it is far less a speculative gamble now. Look how stable the price has been these last few days. My only worry is whether PC play ball with us, given that we are dependent on their cooperation until the refinery is built.

Researchandhold ; "spot on post at 11.09am about how Petrovis must see the future of Matd and overall impact on both business. "

Thanks.

If anybody hasn't been on the Petrovis website and seen what they say about PM, then they are missing something very important.

I think too that too much is sometimes made of MB being the ultimate decision maker, and that his decisions are mainly just based on personal self-interest. The PM Board has some senior Petrovis people on it, and at the end of the day MB is the CEO of the subsidiary of a parent company - which is the Petrovis Group. The notion that he makes independent decisions without the consent of the top brass at Petrovis makes no sense.

Interesting that a parent company can merge with its subsidiary company....

Stas20 ; ok, sorry - you did mention the loan facility. However I think that you are underestimating ;

1) Petrovis as the largest shareholder will not want to be diluted.

2) Petrovis will be desperate for PM to become a highly successful oil producer, so their loan will be very soft indeed. It's really one arm of the business lending to the other - the parent company lending to its subsidiary.

Stas20 ; if you want to keep it all factual and balanced, then why no mention of the parent company ( Petrovis ) offering its subsidiary company ( PM ) a soft loan facility which was mentioned in an RNS ?

Little is ever said about Petrovis for some reason - but read what they say about PM on their website. They set PM up as a subsidiary, and floated it on the LSE so that most of the capital could come from private shareholders. That's fair enough. However, don't underestimate how much PM surely means to Petrovis - their subsidiary will transform them from being merely a successful Mongolian company importing oil and fuel, into becoming an oil producer in their native country. That's enormous prestige and kudos for Petrovis.