Member Info for investor33

TheToe ; anybody simply following Buffett's famous maxim of ' buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy ' would have done very well with PM over the years, and would have banked enough profit to no longer be risking anything with their current holding.

I also recently read a book specifically about investing in small cap shares - it said that the best approach with micro cap oil and biotech shares is to sell part of your holding on an RNS spike, so that eventually the profit covers what you have left in. I wish I'd adopted that approach right from the start. It also gives you an opportunity to eventually average down if you do buy back in later.

People always speculate that the price will be this that or the other after the next RNS - however it's best to look at historical facts to do with what actually happened, rather than relying on speculation based usually on wishful thinking.

The fact is that after every RNS to date with PM the price has spiked on very high relative volume, and then pulled back massively on low volume such as we have now. There's no reason to believe that this wont happen again when the next RNS is released. So I'm going to bank some profit on the next spike - maybe a third of my holding.

What the ( real ) professionals have been doing for years with PM ;

Accumulate shares cheaply on low volume in the periods between an RNS. Sell some or all of the shares straight after an RNS, on the resultant sudden massive spike in volume which lasts a day or two after an RNS release. In other words they do what Buffett advises ; " buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy. " If the MMs drop the price sharply then they can quickly make many people very fearful indeed....

What an amateur retail investor does ;

Buys on a high volume spike straight after an RNS, when there is mass FOMO. In other words doing the opposite to what Buffett advised - namely buying when others are greedy, and often selling when others are fearful ( in a fit of pique and frustration )

As Tom Williams of VSA fame always advised ( based on his knowledge of Wyckoff theory ) - "follow the smart money. "

And remember "that news is bad for your wealth.."

The MMs and other professionals simply use the high volume and extreme FOMO straight after an RNS to bank their profits. Anybody capable of halving the market cap of a company in one minute of trading following a ' positive ' RNS release ( as happened in July last year ) has tremendous control over the price action. On that day the price swung between 1.8p and 6.5p in just an hour or two...

Sageman ; I think that's exactly the right approach - and the least stressful one as well.

And I agree that it will continue to be a trading share until production - some are making far too much money from it with the wild volatility for the party to end before then. We have pulled back nearly 30% from the 5p peak of the RNS spike which was reached off the back of a huge spike in volume for a couple of days. Now we're back to normal volume levels. In other words it's followed a similar pattern to every other RNS to date.

The MMs / their trading desks/ other trading desks and the retail investors who trade, must have made serious money in the last few years.

ToppO ; "who cares wot mm do if even doing, "

I guess investors who probably cared might have been those who just before the July 2023 RNS held PM shares with stops in place, and who saw the price finish the day before the RNS at nearly 4p, but then looked at their broker accounts early the next morning with large losses, having been stopped out at say 1.8p to 3p.....And I expect that they would have cared even more when an hour or two later they watched the price rocket up to 6.5p.....

Yep - I would say that they probably cared quite a lot. LOL.

Master ; I tend to agree.

Doc was reluctant to believe that the MMs manipulate the price action ( apart from the case that I described below ) however hopefully the penny has now dropped for any who thought that it all works according to textbook market theory.

Velo ; glad you're another one that understands and recognises MM manipulation.

To any one who still doesn't get this - just consider some facts ;

On the 5th July 2023 the price closed at 3.9p, and the next day on the 6th July there was a 7am RNS release which was a positive one. When the market opened the price plummeted to 1.8p, therefore for a few minutes the market cap of the company was more than halved from what it was valued at the previous day when the market closed - which is a difference of one or two minutes of the market being open. This had nothing whatsoever to do with retail investor sentiment, and everything to do with the power that the MMs to dictate the price action at any given moment.

Subsequently ( after lots of stops were triggered and masses of shares sold off cheaply to the MMs) the price magically recovered almost straight away to touch 6.5p on the same day - so now within just an hour or two the market cap of the company was now valued at more than three times what it had been valued at when the market opened....

And then what happens just a few short weeks later ? We're back down to 2.5p without any fundamentals changing in that time.

Like I said- if you want to buy something cheaply from someone, make them believe that what they hold is of less value than it really is. MMs can easily change sentiment through just dropping the price sharply - then people on boards such as this one in a state of panic and fear start coming out with all sorts of theories of what might be going wrong behind the scenes that we haven't heard about yet. So these people do the MMs job for them in terms of making cheap shares available to buy. Think about it.

Greenbacks ; can you write that in some form of coherent English now please. I didn't understand a word of what you wrote....

Doc ; enjoy the football - I'm doing the same. We might disagree about some things, but in reality we are on the same side, and I would genuinely like to see you and all the other LTHs do well.

Enjoy your weekend too.

Doc ; a large limit order can be pulled. It happens a lot in the US market. It can fool people who are closely watching level 2.

And you haven't explained away yet why the price spiked at 7p in May last year, and then with no change to the fundamentals, just 3 weeks later the company was suddenly valued at about half the market cap that it was at the peak of the spike....If it was all down to retailer investment sentiment as you so religiously believe, then a lot of retail investors suddenly and in a very short time changed their mind drastically about the true value of the company.

Or maybe explain why on the RNS release of 10/07/23 the price was marked down in the first few minutes from 4p on the previous day to a previous support of 1.8p. Then immediately the price magically recovered within literally minutes up to a high on the day of 6.5p, and to then close the day at 4.8p. The MMs did a fantastic job on that day of hoovering up loads of shares very cheaply on that vicious hammer spike down, and then offloading them over the course of two days when the price again magically spiked the following day back up to 6.2p. A few weeks later the price was down to 3.2p with no major change in the fundamentals - what had changed was the volume, down to about 3m compared to 76 million on the day of the RNS.

Nearly as many buys in terms of monetary value as sells today - yet down nearly 9%. The MMs using analyst talk about oil potentially being 60 Dollars a barrel at the end of 2025 as a reason to sharply mark the price down. And if an RNS is imminent then they do that anyway - remember that just before the last RNS the price had dropped from about 3.5p to 2.8p. Lots on here were panicking, and there was even talk of doing a protest outside the Mongolian embassy...

If you want somebody to sell you something cheaply, then the best approach is to talk down the product that you are trying to buy off them, and give the seller the idea that what they possess is of limited value...And give the impression that you are doing them a favour...

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

Warren Buffett.

I guess it's worked quite well for this bloke....

Sageman ; what you wrote is correct. The only safe strategy is to sell a % of your holding ( according to what you judge as best ) on an RNS spike, and then wait several weeks for the inevitable pullback and then maybe accumulate when volumes are very low again.

Just leaving it all in amidst the massive price volatility of penny stocks is sure fire way to end up with a lot of grey hairs.

Hamm ; these days most short term trading at trading desks is done by algo trading bots which are programmed to pick up on and analyse RNS news releases. And they analyse and then act on them in an instant. Do a bit of research into how trading has changed in the last few years - why do you think some of the best programmers and IT people in the world work for the city ?

"These automated trading systems are mostly employed by investment banks or hedge funds, but are also available to private investors using simple online tools. An estimated 70% to 80% of all market transactions are carried out through automated trading software, in contrast to manual trades. "

So you get an RNS release such as the last one - that 55m of volume on the day of the release ( compared to say an average day of 2 -3m of volume ) is down to trading bots, human day traders and FOMO driven retail investors jumping in, whilst the MMs sell into that high volume having accumulated much lower down at say 2.5p to 3p.

Doc ' "But Investor, being absolutely honest, do you think MATD deserves to be 10p+/£100m+ market cap given we are still unable to produce oil and all the historical delays? "

So please explain why after an RNS last May - which was nowhere near as positive as the last RNS - the company was briefly valued at around 7p/ £70m market cap, but then just three weeks later ( with no change in the fundamentals) it was suddenly valued at 3.7p and about half the market cap ?

Don't you find that strange if the price action works according to how you believe it works ?

The fact is that the MMs and some traders ( which includes MMs ) accumulate at low volumes and sell into FOMO high volume spikes. Volume at the moment is about 4.4m - on the day of the last RNS it was 55m....It's far easier to play around with the price action on relatively very low volumes. Penny shares are much more subject to price action manipulation as daily volumes are incredibly low compared to say typical FTSE 100 stocks.

Hamm ; " The reality is that sb was willing to sell at 3.55! What can mms do? "

Did you not see the comment that MMs can dump shares to bring price down and then buy again from sellers who have been encouraged to panic and dump their holdings ? And let's say that the MMS had accumulated at around 2.8p just before the last RNS, then the shares that they are dumping still give them a profit....And so the cycle goes on.

For those paying attention, so far this is the third consecutive day whereby there has been a higher monetary value of buys than sells. So tell me that the ' strange ' price action is all being conducted in model textbook fashion according to Adam Smith's ' invisible hand of the market....'

Unprofessional ; to prove that you are not just a ' professional troll' tell us all which trades with PM you have made to date.

You said that you are Dutch ( not sure if even that is true ) well most of what you write is double Dutch....

Pro ; tell us which trades you made and when, and how much you made on each trade and then I might start to pay attention to what you write.

As somebody noticed and remarked on just the other day - with all 3 companies that you have regularly posted about on here you have repeatedly posted for all three that a raise is imminent. It's obviously the only reason that you come on here, other than to make trollish remarks to some other posters for your weird amusement.

Doc ; it says a lot about you that you resort to childish insults such as FOS. It's so much easier to say ' FOS ' rather than to give logical counter arguments as to why I am wrong about MMs and how they operate. What experience do you have to even know one way or the other anyway, or to effectively say that Richard Wyckoff and Tom Williams had it all wrong ?

I don't understand people like you. You say that accumulated shares on a raise at about 2p, so therefore could have exited on the last spike at about 5p with around 100% profit, yet still hold on in there spouting endless negativity about the company every single day. Even when there are more buys than sells, such as yesterday you still find fault with the company. You have absolutely nothing positive to say, or any optimism to show about PM's future prospects - so why keep your money in the company at all ? Why hold with a company which you have so little regard for - unless you are in reality just a get rich quickly merchant who is secretly full of FOMO which you never like to show....?

Do you actually have a job to do in everyday life, rather than just sitting on here spouting negativity whilst all the time hoping to get rich quick ?

Pro : I've asked you to illuminate us about which trades you have made so far with MATD to justify your 10 million posts on here, including throughout weekend. So far you have said nothing. Lots of hot air about ' shorting at 4.5P ' etc yet a strange reluctance to ever say what you did or how much you made.

Real professional traders don't hang around on boards like this making trollish comments etc - they are far too busy actively looking at charts analysing news releases every day etc.

Funny how if you have a word moderated ( in my case s**g off ) the subsequent moderated post removes all the capital letters !