Member Info for investor33

Medjed ;

"Yes but a year ago there were ‘only’ 1.1b shares.5.5p is the new 7p from last year "

Yes - but a year ago there was no local access permission to allow them to start at the site. I don't think that the equipment that they will be using shortly had been purchased back then either. And they were not as well funded a year ago as they are now either. If you have to adjust the worth of the share price according to dillution then equally you have to adjust it according to radically shifting fundamentals.

Gigi ; Thanks for your thoughts.

Regarding this comment ; "

Petro matad had no permission to develop their resources & no firm timelines. What happened? Traders sold off and no one was there to pick up the surplus stock. Price dropped reflecting those uncertainties. That last word is important."

If you take May 2023 as an example, the price spiked up to 7.2p in anticipation leading up to the 22nd May RNS, but then roughly by the end of the first week of June 2023 the share price had tanked down to 3.7p. I just can't see how in those 3 or so weeks so much ' uncertainty ' ( that you explain everything by ) dramatically developed to such an extent that the MCAP was suddenly halved from the peak of the mid May spike.

In fact there was huge anticipation during those weeks in June 2023, as the Velicoraptor drilling equipment was taken to the site, followed by an RNS on the 14th June announcing the Velo Spud. After a mini spike up to 5p on this RNS, the price then tanked again suddenly down to as low as 3.3p by the end of June. The subsequent RNS announcing that Velo was a duster was only released on 10th July 2023....It doesn't add up for me I'm afraid.

Stats20 ; I take your points about SETSqx. Thanks for posting some useful information, which many may not be too aware of.

Regarding volume levels and low levels of liquidity ; volume levels straight after an RNS typically bear no relationship whatsoever to normal volume levels for the likes of MATD on an average day. Normal volume levels leading u to the last RNS were about 2 to 3m and on the day of the RNS, 344m. The day after the RNS it was 83m.

So volume levels at the time that an RNS is released may well justify the use of alogithmic trading, given that trades can be programmed to execute in phase with very high relative volume levels after an RNS release for presumably any given AIM stock ?

And the MMs are presumably also trading their own accounts as well. They are not simply meeting regulatory stipulations to make a more liquid market for fairly illiquid stocks such as MATD. At the end of the day, I think of MMs as traders stocking a warehouse so as to ensure that they have enough stock stored away to meet future demand. Any like any good wholesaler - they will stock up at as low a price as possible. If they can shake weakholders out by suddenly dropping the share price on low volume, or by hitting a mass of stops through spiking the price down -and then straight back up - minutes after an RNS release ( as happened on 10th July last year ) so as to hoover up cheap shares, then they will do just that.

As I mentioned in another post - straight after an RNS in mid May 2023 the price spiked to 7.2p and then just 6 weeks later, the company was suddenly had a MCAP of half that with no fundamentals having changed in the intervening 6 weeks. So as Master 82 just said, manipulation of the price action is clearly going on, and I don't believe that it's anything to do with the average retail investor.

Aeschylus ; yes, I absoultely accept that the fundamentals have radically changed. Funnily enough, a couple of weeks before it happened, I predicted that the LP would be announced on the 1st June ' give or take a day or two. ' I was as delighted as anybody, though I can understand many LTHs becoming disillusioned with the subsequent raise at 2p.

Buck did the same thing straight after the expoitation licence was granted - though at that time it was pretty immediate and not weeks after the RNS.

Thornogson ; " in a way an Bot induced over reaction is a good thing, so long as you've called it right? "

it's the reason why after just about every RNS going back yaers there has been a huge surge in volume on the day of the RNS and for maybe a day or two after, with a simultaneous big spike in the price. Then aways a very sharp pullback soon after. Look at how it spiked up to 7.1p straight after an RNS in mid May 2023 and then 6 weeks later was at 3.4p with no change in the fundamentals.

Stas20 ; I'm always wary of people who pepper their responses to other poster's opinions with lols. IMO it often implies a narcissistic smug sense of superiority - as though the other person's opinion is of no worth, and should be sneered at. Maybe the other person actually has some valid opinions and points to offer.

Anyway, as regards this comment ; " .erm self fulfilling comes to mind " you do realise that a great deal of the short term trading going on is not done by small retail investors such as those that frequent this board, but by algo trading bots on the trading desks ? They are programmed to analyse an RNS and to then act on it at lightning speed. That's why volume levels go through the roof straight after an RNS release. Why do you think that the city employs some of he best IT brains in the world ? There is an argument which says that the smart money moves in phase with what the professional money is doing at any stage.

I would estimate that since 2019 I would have been about £50k better off through simply selling soon after an RNS and then accumulating weeks or even months after that. This would have meant that my present holding would be a free hit, and my overall risk nil. A book about penny shares which I read a couple of montsh ago suggested that the best way to invest in micro cap biotech and mining stocks is to sell your initial holding on a sike after a news release, and to leave the rest in. That way you end up risking nothing. They also pointed out that frequent raises are a major hazard with these types of shares - in my experience everything that they have written, and the advice they have given has been proven to be spot on. Frankly, I wish I had read it 5 years ago.

Hi Pilsbury7 ; That's fair enough. I guess if either approach ultimately pays off then they are both valid. I can understand that some LTHs will not want the hassle and stress of dipping in and out whilst trying to optimise their timing.

For me, my approach right now is to sell a proportion of my current 1.3m shares on an RNS spike, and to then wait and see what happens over a few weeks. In that respect I guess I've changed my approach in the light of what I've observed typically happens with the price action over the course of the last few years. For me at least, that's probably the least stressful option.

Looking back over a daily chart, most RNS releases over the last few years have been deemed to be positive at the time, and every single time without fail there has been a spike lasting for a day or two afterwards, followed by a strong pullback. I guess I feel more comfortable these days in trying to lock in and bank at least some profit close to the peak of a spike. Obviously we spiked recently at something like 5.2p after the last RNS, and then with the raise we were back down to 2p a few weeks later. It's not a great feeling to be say 20% up straight after an RNS, and then a week or two later say 30% down...I'm averaging 3.7p right now. I received just £2,700 worth of shares in the retail offer, so I bought some more in the open market.

Batiatus ; I'n mot sure that the timing is that difficult providing you can overcome the FOMO straight after an RNS. The spikes have historically happened over a day or two straight after the RNS is released. And the sharp pullbacks have always happened over the course of several weeks following the RNS. This pattern has repeated over and over again - and even after production has started it's a habit may not easily be broken. We will see.

NicetoMichu ; " Good trading stock this mind. But a mongrel from a medium/long term buy and hold perspective "

That's exactly how i've come to regard it. It simply never pays to hold in the medium to long term. People would have already had their multibagger simply through consistently selling over the years somewhere near the top of a spike on an RNS release, and then buying back in weeks later when it's smething like half that price. It's the one thing that has been guaranteed over the years - this type of price action - and I can't see it changing in the future. Every single year there is consistently a several 100% spread between the low and the high of that year - there's your multibagger right there if you play it right.

The people who have really lost out over the years have been those who have bought straight after an RNS amidst all the FOMO hype - Hamm always seems to be in this category based on his previous posts straight after an RNS has hit ; " buy in now guys - we wont see these price for rmuch longer... 4 or 5p just paid etc " By the way - he hasn't been heard from since the raise. I think that Bad Prophet did the same - so now he just stays on here to try and spite those who hold PM shares, which I guess is a way of staying in denial of your own poor strategy. It's always someone else's fault....

"I’ve just looked back. Since august 21 . Matd have raised $16 million dollars plus this new $8.5 million !! Each placing stated it was to fully fund heron 1 completion and production .

Where the hell has that $16million gone??"

"The Velocirpator drill, renewables, paying off the locals for their land, salaries..."

Nobody remembering the equipment already purchased and ready to use for Heron 1 then ?

Jazim.77 ; no worries. Maybe read through the last few RNS releases ? The Special Purpose agreement isn't needed right now - but it's another feather in the cap to obtain it.

I was actually very surprised and relieved that the District authority granted a 5 year, rather than a 1 year access permit. Otherwise without the Special Purpose agreement signed, PM would have had to apply every year for land access with the District authority.

Hamm ;

"Who is selling at this price! Unbelievable."

Mms can also strategically offload a certain no of shares whey are accumulating. It's a balance between trying to accumulate at low price levels, but not letting the price move sharply against you whilst you are doing so - and thereby accidently induce a FOMO rally. They can still offload some at the right moments to keep demand down, but then buy back in again whilst the accumulation process goes on. It's a juggling act.

To offload a certain quota at break even or even a small loss is fine, as they can buy straight back in if the price dips once they offload. Plus all the uncertainty and fear that this creates ( look at some of the comments on here today ) may well shake out some amateur retail investors as well, which also helps keep the share price low whilst they accumulate.

Cyber ;

"the MMS know what's coming too, they have or still are accumulating shares, you can't blame the MMS for wanting to make money if people are willing to sell quick and cheap, if people held on they would have to crank up share price"

Spot on with that.

Jazim :77 - So maybe explain why without permission for the land access to go ahead, the price spiked at just over 7p in May last year ? Or some other spikes still without the District land access permission after that ? Or why after a positive news RNS release in early July last year, having closed at 4p at 16.30 the previous day, the price was marked down to 1.8p within a minute of the open, only to then rocket up to 6.5p an hour or so later ? If that's not MM manipulation then what is ?

"The company is aiming to get approvals from the Mongolian government (after the elections) to go forward with its productions plans "

What you are referring is the Special Purpose land designation tripartite agreement which PM and the relevant government ministry have already signed - it's the provincial governor who has yet to sign it, and he may not be in office for much longer. They don't need it anyway for 5 years, as the District authority has granted PM a 5 year land access permit, which is what allows them to go ahead straight away. So your argument is not based on true facts, or a lack of the facts.

Master is correct - the MMs mainly determine the price action for now - not fundamentals. It suits them to accumulate at low price levels. When it spikes again they will offload as many as possible.

Thornogson ;

"Charts. Traders. Long term holders.Merits to all approaches and each to their own but there is on incontrovertible truth."

It's not a binary choice between charts, technical analysis and being a LTH. It's just that a lot of LTHs in shares like this one never seem to think it's worth investing the time to trying to understand them for some reason. They matter because the trading desks throughout the world all see pretty well the same technical indicators and charts. The price action with PM has frequently bounced around between well established support and resistance levels for example.

I don't believe that the price action will ever smoothly trend upwards as some hope and believe. Large pullbacks are very much the typical price action with any penny stocks. When it moves up sharply we should still expect massive volatility.

Well - I think that's about 16 tranches now, starting from 2019. That's 1.12 million shares now.

Stas20 ; it's really good to see that some other people also pay close attention to price action, charts and technical indicators. Many on here seem oblivious of it - and then you have ' professional ' calling charts ' graphs ' as though he is expecting to sit down with some pencils and graph paper and then burning the midnight oil every day in order to catch up with that day's price action.....LOL.

Professional ;

I'll stick to these facts ;

1) As was pointed out by somebody on here who checked your previous posts - that with all 3 companies that you regularly post about on here, you talk about nothing but raises.

2) When I looked just now there was a value of £19,670 sells and £68,930 buys with the share price 2.82% down. That tells me that the MMs want the price kept low in order to accumulate. You don't let the price move sharply against you when accumulating and you have control over the bid and ask being offered.

You've heard of the film ' The Rain Man ' presumably ? Well you're clearly ' The Raise Man. '

Marc74 ; it's not so much that people are ' covering it up ' but rather that you are either unaware of, or are ignoring the facility which Petrovis have offered. And this was specifically referred to in a recent RNS if you look back.

As regards the price action today - what do you expect from the MMs ? £19,00 in sells so far, £63,000 in buys and 2.8% down when I last looked.....I'm afraid that we all just have to accept that penny shares are what they are. If you want greater predictability, lesser volatility and less price action manipulation then look at BP or Shell instead. Oh, and you get dividends too ( that's for WOS )

Thornogson ; I've done quite a few posts now about how the MMs play around with the price action for their own ends - so I'm not sure why people are still surprised by it...

The MMs don't know you, will never meet you and frankly don't care about your interests. Believe you me, with these types of relatively extremely low volume penny stocks the MMs manipulate the price action like crazy. The lower the volume, the easier it is to play around with the price action. That's the risk you take with penny shares and the AIM market. Even if we get a decent re-rate, expect the huge volatility and the stomach churning pullbacks to continue....The volatility in the last year has been about 400%.

Marc74 ; best to do some homework before commenting and spreading anxiety about a raise.

PM is a subsidiary of the Petrovis Group ( look at the Petrovis website for confirmation of this) and they have offered a soft loan facility to their subsidiary company.

Hamm ; understand what I wrote if you are referring to me. From posts I have seen from you - you always seem to jump in near the top of a spike. Didn't you buy near 5p just after last RNS ? you paid 30% more than you would be paying today. Typically some people will be saying on a FOMO spike ' get in now whilst yuou can - we will never see these prices again ' I remember someone saying when it hit about 4.8p on the last RNS ' last few orders to be filled in the 4s and then we are into the 5s.' Well now it's 3.4p on the bid.

I'm just saying - don't get caught out in FOMO fever on an RNS spike. This share will never just go up in a smooth uptrend like some dream about. IMO it will always have incredibly sharp pullbacks - as has happened for the last 10 years or so..