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Thornogson ; all shares in a particular sector get hit at the same time, if there is some kind of negative backdrop. And that ranges from large caps to micro caps such as Matd - they all get tarred with the same brush.

It's because it creates the perfect invitation for the shorters on the trading desks to move in, and they don't need to be asked twice. Why do you think that banking stocks suddenly plummet if some kind of banking crisis erupts in Europe or the States ?

I think people are too fixated on the last RNS right now. In terms of the fundamentals, the more significant factor is that the price of oil is now at a 3 year low, and Brent has come down from 87 Dollars in early July to 70 Dollars today.

BP has lost 20% of it's share value since early July - oil stocks are badly out of favour right now, so there are significant headwinds at play. Shell peaked at £29.50 in early May, and is now £25.30. The timing is unfortunate - but that's Matd for you.....it's been a bumpy ride all the way for LTHs. The hedge funds will clearly have been shorting the likes of BP and Shell, and trading desks have almost certainly been targeting this share as well given the backdrop for oil generally.

Doc; possibly a variation on a bag holder.....

Subby77 ; it's the production infrastructure which goes on top which requires the permit.

Manx ; this is the biggest factor in terms of the fundamentals, with nearly a 10% drop in the price of Brent last week.

BP has lost 20% of its share value in the last two months, so it's hardly surprising that there's a lot of shorting going on with MATD's share price.

Aeschylus ; I take on board what you say, but the spread at the moment is about 2.5%.

Even in that example I gave of a trader being way off with their timing - they still end up with 20% in about 15 trading days after the spread both ways is deducted. And in a trading range, with clear support and resistance levels you can be sure that the trading desks will regard that type of well defined range trading as ABC stuff. Really basic. Have you seen typical trader screens with all the bells and whistle technical analysis indicators set up on them ?

Doc ; the share price rose pretty dramatically in May 2023 didn't it ? All the way to about 7p I remember, having doubled in price from just a few weeks earlier. And then all the way back down to about 4p two or three weeks later...

And what fundamentals exactly was that based on ?

And there had been a raise in Feb 23 hadn't there ?

The fact is that the MMs/trading desks jettisoned the shares that they had accumulated at the 2.5p support level en masse at 8am when the mini spike hit 3p, and many probably took a load of short positions as well, knowing it was the peak.

Then accumulate again having scared the life and shaken out a load of retail investors with such a sharp plunge. Boards like this suddenly full of gloom and panic as a kneejerk reaction to the fall in the share price - despite many declaring the RNS to having been a positive one between 7am and 8am on the day of the release. And then rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.....

Legalwolf ; it doesn't matter what the RNS said. Had their been really bad news then the MMs would have dropped it even more sharply. Why do you think it did a mini spike to 3p at 8am - which was an hour after the RNS was released on the market open ?

What some people don't seem to realise is that these penny micro-cap stocks are manna from heaven for the MMs/trading desks. How much of a % do you think that something like BP or Shell moves in a day or a week ? They are untradeable in terms of short term trading. This share has now moved down something like 18% in a day from the peak of the mini spike at 8am yesterday - that's a huge profit off a large short. In the last year there has been a 100% difference between the high and the low of the year. In 2021 it was about a 300% difference between the high and the low. Do you think you can get that with a blue chip share ? Traders thrive on volatility above all else - and micro cap penny shares have exactly that.

Looking at a chart, back on the 23rd July the price spiked at 3.35p and just 10 days later it had fallen to 2.52p. That's a 25% profit in just over a week for anybody shorting . And the traders don't short with small amounts. Then just 5 days later the price had bounced back to 3.05p, which is another 20% profit for anybody who bought at the bottom and sold at this resistance level. So in total for both trades around 45% profit in just 15 trading days for anybody timing their trades well. Or maybe 25% or so if your timing was off a bit.

Some LTHs on here having held for years would be delighted with a 45% profit....and would be pleased to just get out and be risk free again. That's why these types of shares are really made for the traders.

Thornogson ; tree shaking. When you want to accumulate, then you create fear - and these boards help with that.

Imagine a business buying and selling second hand cars. They want to buy them as cheaply as possible from the public - so what do you think that they are going to say to Mr Jones who's thinking of selling his car to this business ? Do you think that the dealer will say that it's a fantastic car and we're prepared to pay top Dollar for it ?

If MMs drop the price of a share sharply on ' news ' ( even if the news seems positive ) then they can create the fear that people think that what they are holding is next to worthless....Perfect for then taking the shares of them and accumulating. And of course on boards like this panic spreads, so people come up with all kinds of doomsday theories, even if the company is right on the cusp of oil production for the first time in its history.

IMO there was nothing negative about that RNS - however through dropping the price sharply, and creating LTH panic, the MMs can make it look that way. Plus nice profits have been made through shorting right at the top of the mini spike at 8am on the day of the RNS....The trading desks have their fingers on their buttons as soon as an RNS hits - it's the perfect time for the volatility that they thrive on, and they are always ready for when one comes out.

Mullins58 ; most of them have ,,,, all idea about how typical price action works with these types of shares as well. That means what the trading desks/MMs are getting up to at any point, as that's the main factor - certainly it is right now, with a sideways price action in a well defined trading range which has been going on now since early July.

OldHippy ;

" I've seen this on a couple of stocks I hold recently with reasonable liquidity after good news, most notably GDR. AIM is no longer investor friendly. Its a traders market."

The same conclusion I reached a while ago now. The only way is to play the traders at their own game.

Hamm ; "As investor rightly said follow the money/ follow the big boys."

Thanks for that.

"That's how short term traders work - and they have far less risk than a LTH." I meant.

Like I said - all that matters is volatility to them - not fundamentals. If you never look at charts then it will never be obvious to you.

Master ; "Sellers selling at 20% profit. Or even less."

When I get the chance, I will go through all the possible trades available to those on trading desks since early July. All the bouncing between support and resistance yielding decent % gains if timed well. And that means shorting as well at the tops.

I will check, but I suspect that multiple trades by now would have given over 100% gains. So the equivalent of a LTH getting a doubling in the price, which some have waited years for. That's who short term traders work - and they have far less risk than a LTH.

Symph7 ; the professional money just uses an RNS to make profit - they don't care about the fundamentals of the company.

As long as there is volatility in the price, fundamentals mean nothing. Price volatility is everything. And trading ranges which are well defined are easy money - as long as it carries on going sideways ( which it has since early July ) there is around 17% profit to be had through going long or short between the current support and resistance levels.

Symph7 ;

"Once they leave it will tick up im sure. H1 ready. H2 ready to spud. Gobi plan for mid September on track. You guys just complain cause of the price. Fickle."

That's because most on here don't understand what drives the price action short term. They are in the wrong game really.

Art123 and vsm44 ; ok - really good points, and thank goodness there is some realism going on.

So can anybody do a rough calculation of the expected market cap after all ( estimated ) deductions, based on a combined 600 bpd for Heron 1 and 2 and also based on the current price of oil ?

Obviously there are calculations involved with various deductions, including the profit sharing agreement with the Mongolian government. I guess we don't know yet what PC will charge.

Just wondering though if anybody can do some calculations based on say Heron 1 and 2 both achieving 800 barrels per day each ? That includes all deductions including a guesswork theoretical charge by PM, and taking into account the current price of oil.

As a matter of interest, what do people think a true market cap is likely to be, based on say 1,600 to 2,000 barrels per day from Heron 1 and 2 combined ? Obviously the price of oil has dipped a lot in recent weeks.