Member Info for investor33

Velo ; " Jist for context, the market makers are accumulating shares. Not having any more of mine and I am a strong buyer at these levels."

Thank goodness some on here understand what is going on. Well said.

Hamm ; " Plus 2p raise price too low and heavily to mostly his city boys friends."

That's what allowed them to accumulate so low, and to then over a number of weeks distribute at levels all the way up to 3.4p. A lot of professional money accumulation happened, and a lot of professional money distribution has also been happening. Hopefully we are now back to the accumulation phase.

The idea that there is some mega rich Blofeld type guy sitting in a dark room with a white cat on his knee, selling large multiple blocks of shares repeatedly over the last few weeks is pure fantasy.....Lol.

Doc ; nope. I'm waiting for a decent enough spike to sell about a third. And then see what happens thereafter.

What I will not do in future is to let paper profits turn into paper losses - at least for that third of my holding.

I am focused in the future now on day trading on Nasdaq having signed up for an account with Charles Schwab, and having downloaded their superb trading software which allows simulated trading whilst learning. Once I'm out of MATD I wont go near AIM again that's for sure.

Hamm ; obviously we would all have done well to have sold up as soon as the land access RNS came through in June. And then gone in again on the raise.

Having said that I did snap some up in the 2s following the raise to average down a bit.

Doc ; I admit that I was caught out by the raise - probably because of the misleading references in the MATD financial report. If you remember the company made a big thing of the Petrovis ' soft loan ' facility which had not yet been touched. And there was also reference to the company being fully funded until sometime into next year.

You live and learn - but 'Professional ' was right in that respect. And WOS totally wrong.

Researchandhold ; well said !

Doc ; check out the price action early last year. We had a raise in Feb wasn't it ? Straight after the raise the price crashed down to 2.4p in early Feb, but then magically recovered to 4.5p by the 7th March. And then up to 7.1p by 15th May. And all this without MATD even having legal access to the land !

And anyway, why should the company have been valued at 3.4p briefly on 22nd August after the last raise had already happened ? That's about 65% more than it's valued at today despite the significantly better fundamentals we have had revealed since the 22nd August.....Think about that please.

Doc ; Why don't the MMs just trash the share price down to say 1p to accumulate ?

Well take a look at a long term MATD chart. Around the 2p level is a massively entrenched support level. Traders at their desks are contstantly watching charts, and when support levels are reached then they will start buying. Technical anlaysis is a universal language which traders throughout the world use. This applies to blue chip shares as well - right through the gamut in fact.

Look at that spike down on 10th July last year before a move on the same day to 6.5p - the price suddenly spiked down to 1.8p at 8 am on that day, triggering loads of stops. This allowed the MMs to hoover up lots of cheap shares at around 1.8p and to then sell them later that day - and for several days later - with up to a 350% profit....

Retail investors need to rethink their simplistic and naive notion that a positive RNS will automatically create an instant upwards share price re-rate. It just doesn't work like that on AIM.

The share price will only go significantly up when the professional money has shaken out enough weak holders , triggered enough stops and accumulated enough cheap shares. We had a protracted distribution phase for many weeks after the raise - now the professional money wants to accumulate again around the 2p raise price. That's how it works folks.

Typical price manipulation which I have been talking about for ages.

As soon as a positive RNS comes in the shorters move in. The better MATD's prospects are, the more the professional money wants the share price depressed so as to be able to accumulate as low as possible. Then watch out for an eventual spike which they can sell into when FOMO takes over amongst retail investors.

Thornogson ; "Looking forward to the FOMO spike but will be tempted to sit on my hands and let value come out through 2025."

I don't think it has to be a binary choice. If you feel that a strong spike is happening, then you can offload a portion of your holding according to your aversion or not to risk. And it's always possible to go in again lower down, but with a paper profit having this time been converted into a real profit.

Lots of us have had paper profits with this share, but have then gone to being heavily underwater just quite a short time afterwards. It's incredibly frustrating !

Me ? I will sell at least 20% of my holding on another spike.

This crazy site has been jumping around as adverts load whilst I type, and then suddenly posted whilst I was still writing - Oh well, let's start again. No facility to delete posts either.

Wos ; when I reffered to ' professional money ' I was not talking about investment funds, Most investment funds will not deal with micro-caps. I think there are just a couple in the UK that do this - and it's a highly specialised area and very time intensive for fund managers. There's no way that MATAD would be attractive to investment funds at this point in time, and certainly not prior to production. Possibly in the future this might change - but it's only specilaised micro-cap investment funds that will do this.

What I was referring to by ' professional money ' was the MMs and the trading desks - often they are the same thing anyway, as MMs trade their own accounts with their eager young bonus driven traders. I believe that after going through a protracted distribution phase post raise, they are currently accumulating again, and the share price will not significantly increase again until they are once again ready to distribute. On a spike they can create the FOMO amongst retail investors to distribute what they have accumulated lower down.

Wos ; when I referred to ' professioanl money ' I was not referring to investment funds. Most investment funds in the UK at laest do not

Wigster ; I think the only answer I can give to that is that I believe that the RNS spikes will only happen again once the professional money is back in distribution mode rather than accumulation mode - that latter phase is what I think is happening right now.

A sudden sharp upward price spike on news creates FOMO amongst retail investors, and the sudden increased demand gives a window for shares to be sold into. A distribution phase with ' depressed prices ' ( and retail investors ! ) helps shake out retail weakholders so that shares can be hoovered up. And if a support level has been breached, cheap shares can also be bought when stops are triggered - stops tend to be clustered just below previous support levels.

On that last RNS, with an accumulation phase ongoing , the professional money obviously didn't want to create increased demand with a sudden spike, as has happened many times before. For now at least they are wanting to buy not sell - and at as low a price as possible.

If the accumulation phase were to be over, then I think that further spikes will happen on news - however it's hard to know to what levels, as historically the spikes have been related more to previous resistance levels rather than some kind of genuine re-rating of the mcap. Don't forget that technical analysis is a universal language - and the trading desks use this language to read the market and price action.

Had there been a mini -spike on the last RNS to say about 3.4p ( the previous resistance level ) then it's unlikely that many LTHs would have been tempted to sell. Many have been waiting years for production to begin - so these shares are in sticky hands. You would think that it would take a decent spike to persuade some to sell up partially or fully.

Thornogson ;

"Petro Matad without oil and permits is a leaf being tossed around by the vagaries or the wind, once producing however it'll be much more predictable and a good deal higher than today."

Yes, one would hope that after production starts it will settle down to a more stable price action based more on a fair and realistic mcap. I suspect though that with a micro-cap penny stock the price action will still be more volatile than that of a BP or a Shell. We will find out though.

Thornogson ; if there was such a thing as a daily chart going back years which mirrors a bar chart, but instead shows in figures the fluctuating market cap of this company, then the figures would jump around wildly like a ping pong ball bouncing around a room. And these mad gyrations would all have happened without the company having any access to the land !

Ask yourself why on 9th July last year the company ended the day at 4.30pm with a mcap of around 50m GBP, but then after an RNS release at 7am on the 10th July the company at 8am suddenly seemingly had an mcap valued at around 25m... And then just an hour or two later PM had an mcap apparently valued at about around 90m GBP.... !

And all this based on the fundamentals of a company HAVING ABSOLUTELY NO ACCESS TO THE LAND TO START PRODUCTION !

As I mentioned yesterday in a post, my take on things right now is based on the fact that any study of a daily PM chart shows clearly that the sharp spikes which have often followed an RNS release -and which have gone on for years now - appear to have ended for the time being . I just think that this is a significant factor right now, because the dynamics of the price action have clearly changed so close to actual production at long last.

- Take the 5th Dec 2022 - up from 1.6p to 3.7p in a week, and then up to 5.6p by early Jan 23.

- Take 30th March 23 - up from 3.4p to 6.4p my mid April 23. And a raise had happened in February 2023 !

- Take 10th July 23 - up from 1.8p at am up to 6.4p on the same day following an RNS. And then down to 2.6p by the end of September 23.

- Take 29th May 24 - up from 2.7p and up to 5.4p by the 30th May 24.

And all these spikes were usually based on relatively insignificant news when compared to the last RNS - AND WITH NO LAND ACCESS STILL GRANTED TO MATD AFTER YEARS OF FRUSTRATION !

I believe that the professional smart money bought heavily on the recent raise, and then gradually distributed as high as 3.4p - which is up to a 70% profit on the raise price of 2p. I now believe that the professional money is making a concerted effort to shake out retail investors as they make a big accumulation drive again. They are for the time being no longer interested in sharp spikes straight after an RNS, because the dynamics have changed with production just a few weeks away. A spike to sell to retail investors into hasn't happened because right now there is a big drive to accumulate,and to accumulate they need weakholder retail investors to be anxious and fearful.

A perfect way to do this is to keep the share price depressed, and to cause consternation when the company states for the first time that production will start in 2 to 3 weeks, but the share price does absolutely nothing. The result - instant disillusionment amongst some retail investors who believed that they would have an instant multibagger on this kind of news. Look at what some have been saying on here since the RNS.....And the professional money also knows that with production about to happen LTHs are more likely to have sticky hands - so the share price has to be kept seemingly illogically depressed in order to really thouroghly shake out as many retail investor shares as possible.

I believe that once the accumulation phase has been completed then we will get a resumption of the large spikes to allow the professional money to sell into again. However they will be aware that FOMO at a stage with production now actually happening may mean that retail investor money is in far more sticky hands. So maybe that will mean sharper spikes for the professional money to sell into and to induce retail investors to give up their shares ?

Jazim77 ; IMO what is most likely happening is that thee is an all out concerted effort going on to transfer as many retail investor shares as possible into the hands of the MMs/trading desks.

This can only be because we are now right on the edge of production commencing. Now there are no spikes after an RNS - a big contrast to the price action over the last few years. I believe that this is because the MMs/trading desks no longer need RNS sudden price spikes to create the FOMO amongst retail investors to sell into. And that's because they want the price as depressed as possible for the time being. They want to shake out as many retail investor shares as possible right now, as they know that the company's situation is changing radically very soon.

No doubt the professional money picked up a lot of shares on the raise at 2p, and then gradually distributed it up to about the 3p level over several weeks, however now they want the price kept low irrespective of PM's actual progress in Mongolia, because they want as many shares as possible to be transferred from the retail investors just before production actually begins. That's my take on things.

ADW198 ; ok - thanks for clarifying that one.

IMO the price manipulation has changed recently. Take July last year, when on an RNS with very little of any consequence in it, the share price went from 3.5p on the previous close right down to 1.8p on the open, and then all the way up to 6.4p on the same day. And then back down to abbout 4p a couple of weeks later.

As we get very close to production those kind of moves have stopped - it's like the MMs want to depress the retail investors as much as possible in the final weeks leading up to Matd becoming a producer at long last. We just don't get those quick RNS spikes up to 6 or 7p anymore, and there must be reasons why the MMs/trading desks are doing this at this particular moment in the company's history.