Member Info for investor33

Hamm ; a fool by my definition would be somebody who declared weeks before the District committee had even met to vote on whether to grant PM land access ( after years of being frustrated ) to people on here ' guys there is no risk. '

Or one who quotes bogus profit figures that don't even have the government profit sharing and other deductiosn built into them.

Or one who in the midst of a MM spike straight after an RNS has been released, bounces around on here telling everybody ' guys this price will be X,Y, or Z next week - get in now whilst you still can at these prices. We wont see these price levels again ' etc etc etc.

Ra11adw2 ; "Market cap? Petro matad many times went from 2p to 7p-8p sometimes on nothing at all even with dilution or placings. Did you speak about the subjective speculation before this happened? "

I have explained many times on here why I think these spikes happen - and it's not down to fundamentals. Last year on the close of play the day before an RNS, the share price was 3.5p. After a ' positive ' RNS the next day, the market cap nearly halved at 8am down to 1.8p. It then shot up in the same day to around 6p. So in one day the market cap varied at between nearly half of how it closed the previous day, to the company being valued at around 75% more than the previous close, and more than 300% higher than how it was valued at the open. And then just a few days or weeks later it was back to around the 3p to 3.5p valuation without any change in the fundamentals.

I am not denying that there will be big price spikes in the near future - however the holy grail for LTHs is always a stable long term multibagger re-rate without the huge price volatility, and ideally a smooth upwards trending price action. That may be pie in the sky.

A little mistake there - the current market cap is around 35m GBP not Dollars, as I stated in my last post. So to put it all in context, a rough estimate of 4.8 million GBP potential profit from Heron 1, versus a current market cap of 35m GBP.

And some people expect an instant re-rate on this permit to give a market cap of about 70m GBP ? There may well be a quick spike I grant you.

Ra111adw2 ; "Permit alone by it self should double price, to move and sell oil."

Why do people engage in this kind of purely subjective speculation about possible price action ? My understanding is that we might be talking about 400 to 500 barrels per day from Heron 1, around half of which will be taken up with the profit sharing agreement with the government, plus some other deductions. So let's say ( and probably rather optimistically ) 500 barrels per day & around 35 Dollars profit = 6.4 million Dollars a year profit when the current market cap is already around 35 million Dollars.

So now with the permit we then expect the market cap to be instantly around 70 million Dollars ? Hmm.. for sure we might get a quick MM/trading desk spike for them to sell into.

I'm not sure who 'Dan Mavr ' is but scrolling through all his previous X posts, I couldn't help but notice his comment on 22nd August straight after an upbeat RNS ; " wave goodbye to 3s, possibly forever. "

This is what happens when people are purely fundamentals fixated, and buy into the FOMO following an RNS. It's better to understand how the smart professional money works - an RNS for them is more like a distribution phase opportunity.

That's why after every single ' fundamental positive ' RNS to date the price has crashed soon after....The professional money sells into the FOMO retail spike, and then accumulates in fear riven times amongst the retail investors when support has been breached ( with the added benefit of lots of cheap shares hoovered up via retail investor stops being triggered just below the support line)

Stas ; that's true to some extent, though clued up retail people can also try to make decisions in phase with the smart professional money, and to a large extent ignoring retail investor sentiment, which the professsional money uses to its own advantage. It all goes back to Buffett's ' buy when people are fearful and sell when people are greedy. ' Or the Tom Williams ( of VSA fame ) maxim ; ' listening to news is bad for your wealth. '

Greed manifests with retail investors as FOMO - and FOMO is at its peak straight after an RNS usually.

Stas ; fair enough.

At the end of the day, it's pretty clear that huge positions were taken up on the raise by trading desks, and these positions have been gradually unwound over a period of time. Had they dumped them in one or two large hits then the sudden supply would have totally crashed the share price against them.

For me, an RNS is simply a time when retail investor sentiment peaks ( usually massive FOMO ) and hence these are the times when the trading desks most sense their opportunities. Hence all the numerous RNS spikes going back years on here. I'll bet that this nearly always happens with other AIM micro-cap stocks as well.

Stas ; I think where we differ in opinion is that I feel that it's not so much ' insider dealing ' but rather just the smart professional money doing what they are extremely good at - accumulating and distributing, and using fluctuating retail investor sentiment in order to achieve this.

If they took up huge positions on the 2p raise, then they don't need to particularly worry about PM's fundamentals going forward - they simply need to unwind their positions in batches without allowing the price to go against them through too much sudden over -supply. They need retail investor demand to do this as they go along - so a bit of FOMO stirred up for example on the last RNS between 7am to 8am allowed them to unload a load around the 3p level of the mini spike.

If they are accumulating again right now, then the next RNS will give them another opportunity to sell into sudden demand caused by retail investor FOMO. They will spike it up again sharply, and then let it drop when they have done their distribution, or at least most of it. This is why in the past you will notice that after an RNS spike, the price usually held up for a day or two - often retesting the high again, so as to allow the positions to be unwound over several days in large batches - and each time selling into retail investor FOMO demand ( with typical comments on here such as ' we wont see this price again,' or ' it will be such and such a price next week ' etc ) And then when it dropped it dropped like a stone.

Here comes the arch ramper WOS again, back from a shopping trip for shoes with his other half....

In his world, it's all great - a guaranteed multi bagger for all retail investors, and the price action has nothing to do with the smart professional money manipulating the share price to their heart's content at the expense of hapless retail investors....

Stas ; I meant that the shorts would be exiting as close to the bottom as they hope it will go. So that would create supprt lower down - maybe at the key 2p level. We will find out soon.

Having said that, there must have been a lot of accumulation by the smart money during the raise. it's possible that they have simply been unwinding their positions all the way down from the 3.5p peak on 22nd August - which was a huge % gain on the 2p placing.

Doc ; who's to say that it isn't a mass of shorts exiting their trades, having taken out their positions at the 3p peak of the mini spike at 8am on the day of the last RNS ?

The cheapest way to accumulate is to drive the price towards a mass of stops and then hoover them up. We saw an example of that par excellence at 8am after that RNS release last year - the price nearly halved between the close of the previous day when it suddenly spiked down to 1.8p at 8am. And then magically recovered that day all the way up to about 6p.

The key thing about stops is that they are mainly grouped just under previous support levels. So trading desks/MMs will drive the price down to those kind of levels. We had support at around 2.5p, so right now they are hoovering up both stops and the shaken out shares of weakholders who have been spooked by the likes of what some have been saying on a board like this since the price dropped straight after the RNS mini spike.

This is a really good explanation of what has really been going on with the price action for several years now. IMO we are currently in an accumulation phase - with sideways action in a clear trading range since early July. Beware of jumping in during the next spike - the smart money will be distributing at that stage straight after an RNS ;

https://innercircletrader.org/ict/power-of-3-ict-in-trading-a-comprehensive-guide/

I should have added that the spike down after the RNS last year was all the way down to 1.8p at 8am following a close the previous day of 3.5p. And then up to around 6p just an hour or two later on the same day after all the stops had been triggered...All those cheap shares taken off retail investors, and then a highly lucrative distribution at the top at about 6p amidst a retail investor wave of FOMO...

Overner ; well done for posting this. I've tried to explain this type of manipulation on here many times, but my comments are often met with scepticism - usually by people who only want to believe that the price action is all 100 % down to fundamentals.

The most obvious use of ' judas ' moves by the trading desks is always when an RNS comes out - a false sharp move up in the price, causing a FOMO spike ( and allowing MM distribution ) followed by an even sharper move the other way. So on the last RNS at 8m there was a mini spike to 3p, followed by a collapse in the price just minutes later. And then all the way to just beyond support levels to catch all the stops. FOMO when the spike is happening, and then despair when the price crashes dramatically straight afterwards.

One of the best examples was at 8m straight after an RNS last year, when the MMs spiked the price down from 3.5p on the previous close to hit lots of stops, and then all the way up to about 6p in a ' Judas' sucker rally just an hour or two later. And then all the way down again not long after. It's sheer price manipulation - and retail investors are the ones that they are playng with...

Doc ; we also had another mini spike on 22nd August all the way up to 3.5p. Another distribution phase at the top of the spike, and then the price tanking straight after, just as it did after the 3p mini spike. Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.

It's all price manipulation.

Doc ; " It's been a dreadful 3 weeks for the SP, drifting lower every day. "

Though we had the mini spike back to 3p at 8am on the day of the RNS release so that the trading desks could offload what they had accumulated lower down - knowing that most retail investors had reacted positively between 7am to 8am to the RNS....

Retail investor sentiment only soured when the share price started tanking soon after.....

Jazim77 ; I feel the same way too. I admit that for a long time I was quite naive about how AIM and these kinds of micro-caps work. I'm a bit wiser now.

Doc ; so it just backs up what I now believe. Micro-caps should only be touched by traders who know what they are doing. Like the guy who I follow in the States. who has made several hundred thousand Dollars in a month trading Micro-cap Nasdaq shares and several million Dollars since he started trading with his particular method. There are multi baggers several times a week. And his average trade time when he scalps is just 5 minutes.

Stas ; I tend to agree about the insider dealing. Something odd was going on just prior to the placing.

And of course MB had misled in the financial report through making a big thing of Petrovis' soft loan facility.

It's all highly manipulated, so on the next spike I will take a large chunk out. I wont be touching any more micro-caps after that - if you want micro-cap exposure then it's best to use an investment trust which specialises in those kind of shares. That way you get the diversification with lesser risk.

Doc ; it's enough that Matd is considered to be in the oil sector. Whether they are an exploratory company or an established producer, they are still in the same sector - which is what counts.