Member Info for investor33

I think the ' clown factor ' is usually directly proportional to the amount of emojis that a given poster uses in their posts - it's generally a good rule of thumb. No names mentioned....

The more intelligent ones on here would never think to add childish emojis as though they are texting a friend on their phone.

Looking at a chart I'm struck by the similarities between the 2022 price action and this year's. Last year's price action was entirely different.

In 2022 there was a sudden year end surge from 1.8p in late November to just over 4p by the end of December. I'm really hoping that the replication of the 2022 pattern continues.

Looking at a basic Google chart for Matd, if you check back several years then it's noticeable how subdued the price action has been in 2024 compared to say last year. Last year the high was around 7.1p and the low about 2.8p, however generally in that year the price action overall was far more lively. And this was a year in which Matd had absolutely no legal access to the land, and no notion of if and when it might be granted.

This year we have had a high of around 4.2p and a low of around 2.2p. In fact the chart for this year seems to me to be remarkably similar to 2022, when there was a double top at about 4.4p in the first part of the year, and then it tailed off from May to a low of around 2p by July, before sharply moving up from 1.8p in early December to end at about 4.5p by the end of 2022. That was quite a sharp sudden rise for some reason.

Strange that 2023 had so much more volatility, and significantly higher highs than the year when production actually started. It's been very muted so far this year. I wonder though if we will see the same price action as late 2022 ?

Blissful ; "Good to see some blue again, this is a winner all the way and it seems the shorters have at last realised they will only incur losses here."

As far as I'm aware there are no shares that the brokers/ their clearing banks are willing to lend out to shorters. The clearing banks probably consider it too much of a risk - that's common with micro caps.

And derivative shorting has no effect on the share price, as they are not shorting the underlying asset.

Stas ; I notice that we spiked up to around the 200 SMA on 22/08/24 and then down off it. It's been below it ever since. Prior to the raise it looked like we were finding support at the 200 day SMA.

I'm glad to see that someone else is really into technical analysis.

Stas ; yes, very thickly traded stocks have a very narrow spread usually.

I just checked a Matd chart - on the day of the raise volume was 340m and yesterday it was 4.1m.

Stas - thanks - that's interesting.

Stas ; doesn't the wide spread maybe indicate rapid flipping between the bid and the ask going on ? Those sales are coming from somewhere, and it's not from shorting.

There would be a legal requirement to state the number of shares available for shorting anyway wouldn't there ? You see it with US stocks. A lot of day traders in the US stay away from micro caps with " ETB " at the top of a chart - "easy to borrow. "

Doc ; " Whatever is going on, that needs to stop. I truly believe we would've been at that 5-5.7p range by now but for this."

I hope so - because that would then make it just a matter of time.

Stas ; if there are no recorded shorts, then that proves there is no shorting going on. Back to square one Hamm I' m afraid....

Clearly it's just not a company which a clearing bank would allow it's broker to lend share out on - the broker and the bank have to manage their risks. If a shorter is caught in a huge short squeeze then he could end up massively in debt to the broker before the broker gets a chance to close the position following a margin call.

One thing I know for sure - if the share price suddenly increased to let's say 4p very soon, then you would have a very large overhang of LT bagholders keen to exit either partially or fully.

That's the thing when a raise crashes the share price significantly - you end up with lots of shareholders underwater for many months on end, as has been the case recently. Or for some , for many years. The longer this stress goes on, the more the pent up emotions coil like a spring.

And the more shares you issue, the more shareholders you will have who will have become bagholders, and who will be relieved to just get out, or maybe to bag a small profit as some form compensation for their months/years of stress. So even a decent move up will be met with strong resistance, I can guarantee that. If you could create an average price for the holdings of all the current shareholders combined ( excluding Petrovis ) then that's where your maximum resistance level will be at. My guess would be at around the 4p to 5p mark.

On another subject - re all this talk of shorting by Hamm, which he mentions all the time. CFDs are derivatives, and don't effect the actual share price, as with a CFD there is no claim on the underlying asset. So you can forget any shorting as a factor with the likes of IG or City Index.

Shorting would only be a factor if there are shares that can be borrowed via the brokers - and I would guess that the clearing bank behind the brokers would think that Matd is too risky and volatile a share to allow their brokers to lend any shares out. In the US for example only a few micro caps are available for shorting due to this reason. There are some Chinese micro caps on Nasdaq that have gone up 2,500% in a day or two in pump and dump scams - anybody shorting might have been wiped out.

Stas ; "I would say there is more chance of the Mongolian government taking a strategic investment into Matd. I still think the refinery is the key to everything."

Would that IOM meeting have anything to do with this possibly ? If not, then what was it for ?

I don't know if anybody reads the ADVFN Board - but this board is one of total positivity in comparison....

Boris ; join the club....more or less my situation as well.

Adw : and that's the thing. There will be many in the same boat as you.

What gets me is that far from being shorters, or trying to shake people out of their shares, some of us are simply trying to explain the low share price and the very low share price volatility at the moment. We are in a very tight range which has been going on for months. This isn't particularly normal if you look at say a 10 year chart.

My guess is that shares are being flipped right now between the bid and the ask. To do this you need selling to be happening so that shares can be bought on the bid. If the share price seems depressed then this helps shake out some shareholders. MM inventory accumulation may.also be going on in this tight range phase.

My worry is that if there is decent movement upwards then with so many shares is issuance there will be a hell of a lot of shareholders who higher up will be keen to either break even with huge relief, or take a profit.

I suspect that the pump and dump era is over, however I might still be proven to be wrong.

My preference would be for either a JV or for the company to be bought out by somebody.

Another factor may be the big capital outflows out of AIM at the moment - but how much of an issue that is I'm not really sure.

Hamm : maybe MMs who are happy to buy your 3m shares on the bid so that they can then flip them quickly by selling them on the ask ?

Doc ; once I break even again I'm selling half my holding and will then play it by ear thereafter.

One thing - when a hell of a lot of shares have been issued, if the price dies move up you will have far more shareholders around who want to sell at a profit. That's why micro cap traders often look for companies with small floats.

Abzzba ; I don't give a stuff whether you buy or sell - it will have zero effect on the share price anyway.

All this business about these dastardly ' shorts looking to take advantage ' is a bit like McCarthyism ' reds under the bed ' type of stuff....Lol.