Member Info for Intothedeep

hillbill - best just sell your £850 worth then if you dont believe .... off you pop now.

3LP "In the interview, Ryan said they would give an update on progress before the end of Sept but that the facility was unlikely to be put into place until Q4, so don't get excited about an RBL being announced in September. My guess is November."

I dont think you have this right - Ryan doesn't say its unlikley to be in place until Q4 he actually says "we are targeting to draw down on the facility in Q4" - obviously they can't draw down on it if its not in place. They can't leave this until November as the plan for Q4 drilling (which there is a small window) has to get started or we might as well write off the whole drilling season.

maybe its not going to be 30 Sept but it can't go on much longer than that.

3LP. The RBL lender will insist on a hedge; whether our current hedge or a new hedge.

Its easy for people to say we should buy the hedge out - but yes it will be costly and only if COPL believe that oil will stay high for a long time then it would be worth it ... so its a risk, same as it was when they took it out.

It also may be out of COPL's hands if the RBL lender says your current hedge isn't enough to cover the new loan ... who knows... we will find out and hope that its not another ****ty deal :D

Lets face it the hedge is a risk based

approximate order:

SEPT:
flaring approval
Reserves report
RBL - with new hedge and decision if old hedge is to be paid off.
August Production numbers
Junior debt tranche - for BFU drilling program and gas collection upgrades

OCT:
Southwestern drill campaign for BFU - they previously said 8 new holes this year - I suspect that was all put on hold until CUDA resolved.
FED deep drills - 3 holes to start to prove the enormous field and start to work out P1/P2 reserves (I dont expect we will get a reserves report including FED deep discovery for at least another 9 months)
Sept Production numbers

Good point BigBear ... i forgot they will need to update the NPV as well

3LP ..... 51-101F1 is a canadian requirement for disclosure of reserves for oil and gas activities.

3LP - the new reserves report has to be RNS'd thats a legal requirement. Even though we might already have the headline number we dont' know the splits.

Art already confirmed this will happen.

Flaring approval is next Tuesday - expect to know unoffically or via RNS Wednesday morning.

I would like them to RNS it as its a critical element to resolving the production issues until the gas collection infrasture is completed (6-18 months). that would be a good opportunity for Art to hint at the current BOPD.

Not sure what more detail you need about the financing that they haven't already said in the August 9th presentation and previous RNS's.

They won't say anymore about the Restructuring of senior credit and junior tranche debt until its done .... Ryan has sadi they expect it to be done by end of this month but either way they will give an update. Considering they need to start drawing down on any facility for the planned Q4 drilling campaign they need to get this done now and have been working on it for some time.

PS: Art said the updated reserves report was "in hand" at the last presentation also.

why $45 Net ? Post CUDA our % is 85% owned for shannon. So say $85 WTI average thats $72

peron its the first 1000 bopd thats hedged ... at something like $56/b. anything over that we sell at market rate. But we don't own the whole output so you have to say 85% of anything over 1000/day to be conservative.

Its well BFU 21-35-76 ST A SN 3H that I'll be interested in seeing the August numbers. It was offlined at the end of June so should be back on for start of August.

This appears to be the well Art was excited about end of 2021 .... although the RNS of 22 Nov 21 I still can't reconcile with the offical monthly figures and so I think there was quite a bit of selective data used in the RNS to bolster the $8million raise that shockingly arrived a week later.

Another reason I would rather use the Wyoming pipeline figures and not have Art RNS'ing production numbers ... he's too light with provable facts.... its all "outperforming expectations" and so many 100's of bbl/d but doesnt tell us which well or for how long it ran at those levels.

I think you are getting a bit carried away on very low volume rise ... anything at 15.86 is a sell.

We need a LOT more volume buying to move us up, its early days yet .... but we should be in news rich times now ... next week flaring approval, then onto RBL update, August production. I dont see the masses arriving until its clear production is on the rise. BIG excitement wont be until they announce the rig to drill the FED deep discovery

Oiler87 .... we are all still waiting for you to prove your 6/7p bondholders still making profit nonsense

Unfortunatley most PI's, especially if trading like to get an online quote - they dont like NT. and before people say we want LTH's, you need traders to get excited about a stock and generate momentum ... this is what happened in January.

MM's not prepared to offer online quotes becuase they can control the trades easier through negotiated trades.

MM's not awake yet .... NT to buy or sell

Maybe get an RNS next week when the flaring is approved ... considering its a critical action to get production up.

A while ago someone said its because we aren't on the fully blown SETS.

.. this morning they seemed to let it jump over 14p to encourage sellers - I presume to fill that 600k buy. So is it MM's holding it back to fill larger orders? That being said it flew from 16p to 36p in 2 weeks in January on the initial news of the Big discovery .. so it canhappen

unlikely we will get a production update .... they don't ever do that formally by RNS. More likley we will get the updated reserves report next.... as required for RBL and reseve changes have to be RNS'd

"The Company's updated reserve report will include the Cuda working interests acquired in July 2022 and will be based upon updated commodity price decks at future report dates. "

Devilbhoy ... all for alterntive viewpoints but you have to at least get your numbers right .... its 1 billion resource.

More likely will be closer to 2 biilion once they start adding addtional holes and start proving the wider field.

I expect that in 12 months they will have drilled 10-15 new holes in the Fed Deep Discovery and have proven the P1/P2 resources ... Art said use 8% as the primary recovery thats 80million P1 just on the RS report, secondary recovery is around 40% so 400 million - those are at the very conservative end as well.

Quite possible that we could get upto 1 billion total recovery over the life of the field - and your telling me that Exxon wouldn't be interested in that ????

Flaring meeting with authorites is on 13th Sept. I understand its a foregone conclusion because we already own the gas that we want to flare. Plus its a safety issue not being able to flare as the pressure is so high ..... which is nice for our future flow :)