Some thoughts on resource15 Jul 2025 21:22
In the recent Cannacord Genuity opening note they based their numbers on the existing proved resource of 27mt and the old exploration target of 19mt. Historically, all exploration targets have been proved up. These are based almost entirely on two areas though excellent results have come through recently from Pinheiro that is set to be the first area to be developed. So, with drilling done, whilst we wait for the update confirming the resource quality, this is destined to take it well beyond 50mt.
They have been confirming fatter, wider and better quality, further areas of interest and that is before the conclusion of the Aldeia acquisition later this year. Looking at the location of where Block B is, and based on the small area that previously delivered the initial 27mt resource and 19mt exploration, it would surprise me hugely if Block B didn’t double this on its own. This is a beast that will deliver quantity (well over 100mt) for years to come.
As CG said “For a 5% change in the spodumene price, we estimate that NAV/share
changes by ~1p or ~10%.
For a 1-year change in mine-life, we estimate that NAV/share changes by
~5%.” This was based on the current position, not what is to come.
Meanwhile has the market bottomed out. Certainly prices have moved up so should start to be reflected, further enhanced with any increase in resource and extension to the LoM.
All other things aside, the drill results and details to be fed into the DFS should be a key factor, driving much future activity such as offtake agreements etc. This needs to be shouted from the rooftops to the few that might be listening.
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