Member Info for Inbrackets

Groundhog Day

Must be thinking of a different film that I probably haven’t seen

One persons view

https://x.com/globallithium/status/1930250708550324266?s=61&t=AJxxcVs_tbxqv1S84UYMow

Not unreasonable

Always thought that sliding doors depicted a regular repetitive situation. Halley’s Comet is more frequent.

No one projected the equally stratospheric rise to 80,000 but those that were producing made hay at the time. I do wonder whether the nascent lithium futures market will help the physical market avoid the extreme highs and lows and bring things into a variable/ flexible range.

Fortunately we are still say 2 years away from actually selling revenue product so plenty of time for some sort of recovery. Meanwhile the recent status and access to EU/Gov support, plus the actual quality of the project makes me feel that it is unlikely to be put on ice. I had understood that their initial targets are higher grade, low strip near surface, so initial costs would be relatively low (if current rock bottom prices continue) so the project could establish itself properly.

The current turmoils might make the proposed Gov auctions extremely interesting and one might hope that SAV would be well placed.

The RNS makes it obvious that they are set to substantially increase the overall resource be it indicated, inferred or exploration when the work is completed over the coming months.

Not surprising that they issued this to try to staunch the recent reversal as the other strands may still be a few months off.

Meanwhile the current backdrop of the market fundamentals don’t help the numbers

Nicely put, nimble.

In their recent note, Canaccord calculate a further 5% for each year if it extends the life of mine and a further 10% in value for every 5% change in the Spod price, which as you say has not managed to hold its own.

If accurate, The resource update should give a fillip with an extended LOM, partially offsetting further falls or stagnation in price over the next couple of years.

Ps. Is that why they are exploring refinery options as well? A second little nibble at the cherry.

Https://x.com/savannahres/status/1925491200716312829?s=61&t=AJxxcVs_tbxqv1S84UYMow

New tweet from Savannah detailing a village trip to a similar village that has lived with, is living with an open pit tungsten mine, just over the border in Spain to the east of Boticas. Strikes me as a good way of helping to allay natural fears or concerns and promote understanding of the reality of modern mining (restarted in 2019 as I understand). Hopefully those that went on the trip will report back to the wider community with any thoughts, and an open mind on things.

Continuing pressure on lithium prices despite demand side, with any expected recovery stretching out beyond this and next year, with increased supply potential. It will certainly make life difficult for new low grade / high cost prospective producers to source financing anywhere even In EC (with or without strategic project status), and with some existing projects putting the breaks on expansion plans or putting into care and maintenance programs, prices have to find their level where all are making a fair profit and future demands can be met with future supply being adequately incentivised.

It would make an interesting calculation regards any bid for any of the auction plots as and when they are made available.

Don’t discount the auctions. Savannah has / will have all the experience and scars to prove it, along with an effective format and framework to progress any of their preferred lots, should they manage to pick them up.

No doubt Port Res would be flattered as being the cause of a drop in the sp. As is often said in other context, other publications are available.

The Monday after the Sunday election feeling when not much actually changes, with a generally bluer hue. With minimal changes to the overall government, one might hope that there is no need to review everything once again like the long snake, and they can get on and implement the various funds from the EC.

Just wondering, are the Government also going to take any refining capacity, any battery manufacturing and any carmakers into National Ownership as well?

Excellent article

Not too sure on that one. The main buyers over the past six months have been the two Portuguese holders who would seem to have got to about their target amount (at least for now as far as we know). I don’t see them selling out now.

Meanwhile, whilst there may be a summer hiatus, but the recent note from Canaccord Genuity was fundamentally positive with manageable risks but it was the numbers that I was taken with. They have compressed the scoping study by about 20% and still come out with a current 9p value, with another say 4p when the JORC resource is increased by the barest minimum expected 19mt.

They have made no count of any further resource that has been outlined in recent RNS though mention the work going on in some of the potential target areas and they calculate a further 5% for each year if it extends the life of mine and a further 10% in value for every 5% change in the Spod price (admittedly plus or minus - are we more likely to be at the bottom of that price cycle). They also mention that much of this will not be progressed until the existing plans are fully permitted and in play (as we know, a quirk of the Portuguese mining law).

Either way, unpicking the math of this equation leads to a seriously higher price even before further increases from the reduction of discount due progressive de-risking or any additional resource garnered with any auctions.

Hence the comment that I suspect the bigger fish are more likely to be holding than cutting out for a relatively paltry return. Am inclined to enjoy summer and see what the schedule is like in Sep when the drilling results are all in and there should be a resource upgrade; further progress likely to have been made on any more offtakes / funding / grants; details on access road; much closer to DFS; new Gov (next Sunday) delivering support to the whole supply chain.

Trader speak - a buy or sell hint looking back at the share movements and patterns.

Not sure whether any regard or understanding of what the company either does or is trying to do is of interest or necessary.

Cannacord Genuity, recently appointed corporate broker have issued their opening note as a Speculative Buy with a current sp of 9p.

All in all, they have used conservative assumptions on all areas based on existing published data. They are reckoning on an extra 3-4p when the resource confirms the extra 11-19mt and the life of mine extends another 5-8 years. (Approx 0.5p per year) so if the resource moves up still further….

Not too much troubling then as they see the next few months as procedural but using their standard assumption the might expect production to be 2028. They put a good case for why SAV will be sopported financially and the development of the supply chain ;

Don’t they cut off at 0.5% as not worth reporting? And I seem to remember that 100mt was being there potentially. Completely agree.

Is it time SAV to come out from behind the curtain and be recognised as having the best prospects in supplying lithium into the European market?

Does the message need to be passed on that the recent virtual mascot needs to be replaced by the current likely candidate for the role of European lithium flag bearer.

A link

https://x.com/lossadjusted/status/1917519298395783525?s=61&t=AJxxcVs_tbxqv1S84UYMow

If you follow things generally, then nothing new to report that hasn’t been covered of in the recent RNSs and Crux interview.

That said, the style has changed and there is much more certainty of the coming outcome which they are set to deliver this year.

Timely update for today’s presentation. The resource upgrade may still be a few months off but with results like these, when it does land it will be extremely positive and attention grabbing.