Member Info for in4cedros

Irene - in October you posted to Offerman ' I realise it is actually quite tough to sit face to face with someone and say -

Leo you are a great guy, but when are you actually projecting to turn and profit, you know a real one, and not this, ' positive underlying adjusted cash flow from operations day to day excluding costs for drilling, admin, laying infrastructure, tanks, pipelines and other stuff ' and show us that CERP can be a real company '

It's tough I realise, which is why no one ever does it and instead pretends that ' cash flow + from operations ' is in any way a milestone.'

Irene Leo's wording in the recent rns must have given you quite a thrill - it was as if he was answering your question from October :-

'Group is forecast to remain operationally cash flow positive despite the recent international oil price reductions, with OPERATIONAL PROFITS FORECAST TO COVER ALLGROUP COSTS IN Q1 2019 '

I doubt profit will be shown in the next accounts as they are historic and with 6 fields Leo will want to be CapExing in future to grow the company but if Leo keeps his commitment for Q1 that will indeed be a most significant milestone and I'm happy to give you a modicum of credit for framing a question that those with management information ( not Dross ) can have a good stab at answering!

BTW if Leo keeps his commitment on financials I will be applauding very loudly and I will not be impressed with sore losers who may wish to claim, grudgingly, that it was only achieved by skin of teeth - you people know who you are!

Garn - would you mind asking Ross for his reaction to LK's prediction of overall group profitability in Q1 ?

Garnhiem - you probably remember that I made the same point as you some days ago about production being unlikely to fall off a cliff - even assuming LK ran it to the wire and only achieved the 1021 bopd on the last day that means the average bopd in Q4 to the penultimate day was 666bopd and he put on an extra 355 bopd on the last day!

People say the 1021 bopd was ' forced ' - LK probably wouldn't have pushed that hard without the personal commitment so I expect him to take profitability fully into account in future but the peak just shows what can be done and augurs very well for the future !

Just read the rns again tonight and I found a paragraph which rossannan will love about profitability - LK forecasting overall profitability AT GROUP LEVEL during Q1 - that's quite a statement - all these doomsayers who like to quote netback figures that were not comparable to current production levels will be blown out of the water IMO!

For the benefit of rossannan who needs it spelling out - how's that looking for the cash burn story?

LayLadyLay - I listened to the same media and formed the impression that they had concluded that chasing extra production without rigorous attention to cost would be avoided, in future. Again my impression was that LK believes Goudron is problematic and it's better he devotes resources to other fields.

I don't, however, believe LK is just going to leave Goudron to decline as he's hoping that water flooding with claimed connectivity will maintain pressure and production with less effort in future and the Moyno pump may be assisting with longer term, reduced maintenance production.

You are entitled to your view and spin on the media which, IMO, is unduly pessimistic. Goudron IMO is not the field that will transform CERP but merely a valuable source of funds whilst the company moves towards developments elsewhere. Thanks for your interest I'm sure readers here will give it the attention it deserves!

rxdav - I have no problem with LK vindicating his decision to install generators at an early stage in his tenure - Ritson often referenced power outages as a problem for the area. If you view the medias on the CERP website you'll see that Goudron wells need frequent attention to keep up production so if those procedures were hampered by the independently acknowledged severe weather that wouldn't be implausible, although LK has been exploiting opportunities elsewhere in Q4.

This observation about ' skin of teeth ' is easily made but the facts are that ' new ' production was close to 400 bopd - realistically how much will suddenly fall off a cliff in Q1 - more likely there will be some excellent consolidation and attention is being concentrated on the non-IPSC fields which are hugely more profitable - for example we are told a fully loaded compartment on South Erin is set to be drilled in Q1!

I have to pick you up on these points because Dross makes similar observations, without justification and merely repeats them believing ad nauseam repetition will turn it into fact!

rxdav - how SWP is funded is not publicly known and the recent rns gave the CERP take on it, which left the matter open - people can speculate scenarios but to suggest rossannan and others who do that haven't got a bloody clue seems a bit harsh even though I'm the first to point out Ross's shortcomings and disingenuous posting!

Thanks for your posts - I was pleased someone who obviously enjoys exchanging views diverted Ross for a while - I was considering opening a book on how long you'd last before Ross filtered you - I'd have given you about 6 weeks as you're still in the honeymoon period where he puts up with a bit of disagreement!

Shame about the removed posts because one of them was from rossannan - this is the guy that had only jusaccepted the concept of partnering after many on here had quoted the text from LK's recent rns ( nothing to do with his insistence of an imminent Placing ! ) - Ross must have got the 2019 updates on Fantasy Oil & Gas Manager cos he was able to analyse the partnering deal in advance and deduce that it gave too much away - what are you like Ross?

LayLadyLay - i'm confident most shareholders understand the potential here despite amateurish efforts of buffoons attempting to undermine confidence - there is even one who believes he had a eureka moment recently when all that effort trawling Companies House revealed LK had become a resident of Portugal - he's still shy about telling us how it will affect the running of the company though!

RX - Dross thinks that because he repeats something so many times people will accept it as fact - fact is there is cash for the drill and LK's will be using the Norwegian shareholders's rig which may be of assistance regarding settlement terms - in the meantime LK tells us CERP are cash flow positive and recent increases in production are likely to boost that position in the run up to the SWP drill.

So this going cap in hand scenario is just something Dross has dreamed up cos that's what he wants people to believe - but he is moving along slowly as, until he was laughed at, he didn't even want to acknowledge LK had talked about partnering as that would have undermined his Placing hysteria!

Joe - no trumpetting - more like bassooning as the 8.5% uplift was tantamount to interest - but most of us shareholders have got over the expiry of the offer - I think it's only Dross still crying about it cos he wants to make the bear case - still claiming there is a crisis - believes his own Shyte so much he doesn't even bother with IMO nowadays - probably one of his most irritating traits - bearing in mind he is wrong so often!

TonyBaby - plenty of information to support your suggestion - as LayLadyLay merely reported the information it's difficult to know what his motivation was for the revelation - I have asked him many times without a response - my finger has been hovering over the buy/sell button awaiting his explanation for some considerable time now!

Faz - no hate from me - just critical examination of postings - the standard of trolling here is woeful at times - these guys need my feedback to improve their skills - take LayLadyLay and him trawling Companies House to discover LK is now a resident of Portugal - nothing wrong with the fact but where's the editorial - to go to all that trouble and then not be prepared to advise how that effects CERP going forward is woeful!

As for Dross, apart from his questionable musical taste you have to admit that my suggestion he is disingenuous is extremely polite and is quite restrained compared to some of the things you have said to him quite recently! He claims to filter me so the board doesn't get clogged with our exchanges - the fact I'm on here so much, merely responding to each post, reflects his saturation style.

CERP is just a company attempting to generate wealth for it's investors - it's a high risk high reward share - they are overcoming technical issues which have thwarted other management teams - perhaps that's why they are able to convince industry professionals to take their paper - I like the way this is developing - people can trade this share successfully without throwing Shyte 24/7 - take Captain Swag as a recent example - even Irene seemed impressed with him!

Dross - TRIN and CERP very different companies and horses for courses seems apt here.

You seem very keen on TRIN from remarks you regularly make about them and good luck with your investment there - i'm impressed you took such an understanding attitude to the $20 million capital raise they required mid year to resolve their debt situation - reading the chat board at the time not everyone seemed to regard that as demonstrating outstanding management success and the SP took quite a hit but presumably you were able to put a positive spin on that if it suited your position.

Perhaps Offerman likes the idea that CERP have little significant debt and a diversified portfolio of producing wells that have seen production grow from a little over 300 bopd when LK took over to a peak of over 1000 bopd recently. Offerman won't talk to you because he has you filtered like many here who are fed up with reading your naive attempts to undermine confidence in CERP which are an insult to the intelligence of most on here - i would like to join them but I'm waiting to hear from Irene how much the SP will rise over what time period if I stop posting!

Fake news from rossannan - please see post from Horseyhead- Wed 10:21 for detail.

From January rns ' Drilling is to be funded from existing cash resources or through partnering with appropriate third parties '

Irene - you may be on to something - how much higher, please also specify timescale and are you prepared to guarantee it?

LayLadyLay - as Clint has told us over the years a man's got to know his limitations and I'm happy to defer to someone who believes it's worthwhile to trawl Companies House on the off chance one day he'll be able to make a revelation about a director's residency status - you really know how to put the boot in - that's quite a coup de grace!

Irene - I'm just here to support my investment - most people will recall that I withdrew from this board shortly after LK took over because rossannan was in his honeymoon phase and was saturating the board incessantly with his love for LK and CERP - although I found it nauseating it wasn't financially damaging so I was happy to sideline myself, content to spar largely in the backwater with 12bn on advfn who claimed for months that LK would make no difference!

Irene I still don't know why you post here as this company is IMO a high risk high reward share and not for widows and orphans or those with a risk attitude better suited to a Post Office Book - that is how you have presented yourself with your naive questions about risk. Having a low risk attitude is nothing to be ashamed of or apologise for but clearly such an attitude will mean you'll miss out when the big gains occur - such is life Irene - better to be comfortable with your position isn't it?

BTW I've considered the NPD definition and after much deliberation and agonising I've got to say that troll rossannan does seem to tick most of the boxes but I'm not sure about being in control - he may think he is but he may have deluded himself as he has filtered so many he doesn't actually see the full picture - unlike you and me Irene!

Irene - it was moderately gratifying to see you've adjusted your stance on financial fraud and seemingly accept my point it applies to selling as well as buying - LayLadyLay if you helped her out on that well done!

Irene I'm surprised you didn't respond to bigmj's recommendation of Dan's article - FWIW I rather liked it too - perhaps you should write to Dan and ask him how many bopd for the SWP and the exact time scale - bit cheeky of him to slip in that 3000 bopd Goudron projection - weren't you very concerned about that quote only weeks ago !

Dross - what's with this self doubt - up to now if he didn't take Lind it was a Placing - surely you're not listening to others who say LK has funds to drill first one then wait and see how further drills are financed/ partnered!

Joe - so there you have it - our resident troll legal adviser has assured us there would have been no issue. Not sure how he got to study the full terms of the agreement outside the rns though - perhaps it was an option on Fantasy Oil &Gas Manager.