RE: What is really going on.25 Mar 2021 11:23
For me, it was partly JoeBass; but more importantly the Berenberg price target of 33p, and the institutional buying. I thought it was unlikely to fall below 30, because institutions and individuals would regard that as a 9% discount, and buy.
One thing that did concern me was the paucity of projected newsflow between January and March, as Greatland itself would not be drilling in that period; but then Newcrest would still be drilling, and I anticipated further good results on Havieron (which happened, but didn't save the share price).
I was also worried by the departure of Gervaise, and almost sold part of my holding when that was announced. As you will remember, the share price fell briefly that morning, and then recovered. I took that as a sign that I was fussing about nothing, and therefore did nothing. This was despite a very clear memory of the hedge fund, Man Group, which started falling when the CEO, Stanley Fink, resigned in 2007, and never recovered.
With hindsight, the ending of the calendar year seems important. 2020 was Greatland's year; 2021 is not (if we may judge by the first quarter). I still have 85% of my original holding; the other 15% I have switched into OMI, which has suffered a similar fall to Greatland.