Member Info for Impecunious2

Hi, GettingBy.

I wonder if the director sells were based not on any problems or deficiencies in the company, but on fear of a fall in share prices generally. The Nasdaq and S&P500 are overvalued, and due for a correction at least, according to most analysts. I note also that there was substantial director selling in Hochschild, in December and February.

Hi, Hollamatronic @ 20.24.

Also depending on general market conditions. A crash in equities (beginning in the US) would drag down Greatland, like everything else. Some of the commentators, like Gareth Soloway, are mildly bearish, and forecast a 10% drop in the S&P500; others, notably Jeremy Grantham and Harry Dent, forecast something similar to 2008. There's a universal agreement that valuations are too high, particularly in the Nasdaq.

Let no-one think that having gold as an underlying asset will protect us. It won't. Look at what happened to the gold price in the mini-bear of March last year, and the adult bear of 2008. Yes, it fell less than copper; but whether that was much comfort to those holding it, or shares in the companies mining it, I rather doubt.

The commentators I mention (and many others) can all be found in the full eloquence of their profession, on the Kitco website.

Hi, Morning.

I hope you don't watch American films from the 1940's and 50's, where the attractive woman is usually called "baby."

Hi, Daveri @ 19.12.

The only side-effect I noticed was a shivering fit, which lasted about twelve hours. That's a side-effect of vaccination, not of quarrelling with other people, which I always avoid.

Hi, Speedy @ 10.48.

You got there first on this one. I spent too long fussing about my prose style, as usual.

Hi, Monty.

I have investigated this problem at great length, by watching numerous videos on the Kitco website. The conceptual move one has to make, is to distinguish between nominal and real interest rates. Inflation with high nominal rates, but negative real ones (as in the 1970's), is good for gold. Inflation with rising or high real rates is bad for gold. So in the present context, we have to ask, how determined is the Fed to fight inflation? If the answer is, very, then the outlook for gold is bleak. If the answer is, not really, then we should be OK.

I hope this helps.

It's Pierre Lassonde's library which I'm jealous of.

Hi, Napthman.

Thanks for the link. Kitco is a very good website; David Lin has the right style and the right intellect for these interviews.

Hi, Strummer.

Your mention of time-wasters reminds me of the epitaph, "He wasted time, now time wastes him." A remark which I fear will be inscribed on the gravestone of many of the posters here (particularly myself).

Hi, Dillon @ 15.32.

It really upsets me when people tell jokes that are better than my own. Please don't do it again.

Best wishes.

Hi, Bamps @ 17.08.

Surely, he's allowed to have one agenda, which is to support GGP, and make money in doing so.

Best wishes.

Rather belatedly, I have just watched Shaun Day's BRR interview of 24th Feb. He's impressive; he speaks clearly, and looks professional. For anyone else who missed it at the time, here's the link.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/6034e5eb1e24d464e23e202d/greatland-gold-work-programme-agreed-for-juri-jv-with-newcrest/

I tried to put in £12k, and was told this was above market size.

Thanks for the link, Jiffy @00.34.

It's a very good interview. David Lin (as always) asks the right questions, and Lobo Tiggre is very clear with his answers. I'd not heard of Lobo before, but will be following him from now on.

Thanks for the link, Mercedes.

Interesting article on this on the Kitco website. Bearish short term; bullish long term.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-04/This-is-when-gold-price-reverses-Goehring-Rozencwajg-on-15K-gold.html

It was interesting to see gold and copper on the same price chart. In the last year and five years, copper has outperformed gold; but in the last fifteen and thirty years, gold has outperformed copper. Sometimes the two move in opposite directions (e.g. last December to this February); at other times, they move in the same direction (e.g. 2009 to 2010).

https://www.longtermtrends.net/copper-gold-ratio/

Hi, JBS.

I agree with you that the Nasdaq is heading for a fall. Whether the decline then spreads into the S&P500, and migrates across the Atlantic, I'm not so sure. The FTSE100 has not had the same bull run as the US indices, and is below where it was in January of last year. There is then a further question about how the gold price would respond to a collapse in equities; in the 2008 crash, it fell by about 25%, but then rose steeply. Also, it fell from $1680 to $1480 last March, during the mini-bear market (which the Fed stopped on 23rd March); before again rising steeply.

I posted yesterday this link to a Bloomberg interview with Jeremy Grantham, which is well-worth watching. He's not beyond criticism; his argument that equities shouldn't be rising on the basis of a "wounded" economy seems to me pretty silly; they have risen in anticipation of the pandemic being ended by vaccination, and the economy bouncing back. He likes his historical precedents; but omits to mention the last pandemic, the Spanish flu of 1918-19, which preceded the roaring twenties. And this time, there won't be any prohibition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Hi, Robbie.

It's a fair question. And the answer is fear of a bear market; beginning in the Nasdaq, then moving to the S&P500, then crossing the Atlantic into the FTSE100, the FTSE all share, and AIM.

If you want a sleepless night, click on the link below, and listen to the interview with Jeremy Grantham, who is much more persuasive on this topic than I would wish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Thanks for the info, Bamps.