Member Info for Impecunious2

Hi, Greb.

I used to drink Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon, but am now pretty much wedded to Sauvignon Blanc, even in winter. The important thing with booze is to avoid a hangover; which is why I gave up beer long ago.

Hi, Jacal.

Your quotation from "The Merchant of Venice" (2. 7) makes me wonder why I'm invested in gold at all. I've always considered it a vulgar metal, and far prefer silver. One day I shall redeem my sins, by investing in Hochschild.

Hi, Greb.

There are two problems. One is that the bull market is over; and the other is the large market cap. But looking on the bright side, the company is doing the right things, and has excellent prospects (in both senses of the word).

Hi, Oilmonkey & Richemondo.

"Yard" is a word with an interesting history. Bailey's dictionary (1721) gives the following definition: "A measure of three foot in length; a man's privy member."

This is my favourite example of hyperbole.

Hi, Zoros.

I agree with you on this. We don't know what his financial circumstances are. There is of course a more sinister possibility; that he thinks equities globally are heading for a crash. If so, he's in good company. I note that the chairman and CEO of Hochschild, and the directors of Pure, have recently sold large amounts.

Are they good company? I don't know, I've never met them.

Hi, Expru.

To be honest, I hadn't really thought about this. OMI doesn't have any other assets, does it? The mine in Uruguay, as I understand it, is more of a liability than an asset.

Hi, Tildo.

Exactly. If they leave it late (as Newcrest did for GGP), it'll be too expensive.

Here's the link.

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/PDAC-2021/3257/2021-03-10/MA-in-gold-sector-is-the-best-yet-to-come-Sean-Boyd-gives-outlook#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DPDAC-2021

Fair point, napthman.

I have an open mind on this matter. Harry Dent, who is predicting a crash now, has been doing so ever since the last one. Which scarcely inspires great confidence in his powers of prediction.

What is clear is that the S&P is over valued (as below). This is even more true of the Nasdaq. And there are many symptoms of a bubble, e.g. the mania for bitcoin. Gareth Soloway, who strikes me as an extremely astute trader, is short on Tesla and some other stocks; and predicts a correction on the S&P500; but isn't presently forecasting a bear market (i.e. a fall of more than 20%).

If the worst does happen, it won't last forever. Ten months is the average duration of a bear market. And much will depend on the actions of the Fed.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php

Hi, DW.

I wouldn't delay, if I was you (unless you're waiting for a general market crash, which is most likely to happen in the autumn). There's a remark by Jeremy Grantham, which I rather like: "Every time the price of an asset rises, you can be certain of one thing - the future rewards diminish."

Hi, Marshall.

I'm glad it's "punt." Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, suffered a most unfortunate mis-pronunciation of his name, when being interviewed by Jim Naughtie on Radio 4.

Here is Gareth Soloway, in a recent Kitco interview. He anticipates a correction on the Nasdaq and the S&P500; but is bullish on gold (12.5 minutes in).

The interview gives a wonderful insight into the mind of a trader. I particularly like the moment where he says he saw the spike in the 10 year treasury yield, and immediately shorted it.

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Market-Analysis/3242/2021-03-02/Stock-markets-is-the-honeymoon-over-Gareth-Soloway-on-how-to-trade-now#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DMarket-Analysis

This talk of motor cars has in the past been a sell signal. But not now; we're still much too low.

Hi, Tymers.

Good to see you here. I think one needs to hold both OMI and GGP.

Hi, Sotolo @14.11.

I have looked again at the last line of your post, and don't understand how it's possible for OMI (or any other share) to fall 10,000%. A 100% fall reduces the price to zero, and I'm not aware of any share trading below zero. If it's any comfort to you, I bought GGP at 3p in January 2011, and saw it fall to below 0.1 in early 2016. I'm still holding there.

Best wishes.

Hi, Vicjain.

I recommend the Kitco website (and David Lin as an interviewer). I only discovered it recently, but I've learned so much, and really enjoyed it, too.

Hi, Sotolo.

Take a look at the two Kitco interviews I mentioned earlier today.

In my view, the gold price will fall, if equities go into a bear market (as it did in the mini-bear of March last year, and the full-grown bear of 2008). But if this does not happen, the gold price will rise from the recent low of $1680.

With regard to inflation, one needs to look at real interest rates, rather than nominal ones. As long as real interest rates are negative, gold will do well (as it did in the 1970's). If they are positive, it won't. So the question arises, how determined is the Fed to fight inflation? We have to hope it suffers from a weakness of the will on this particular matter.

Hi, Sharetrader.

Thanks for posting the link; it's very interesting reading. I think OMI will follow a different path from GGP; it's more likely to be taken over, because the market cap is much lower, and Newmont already has a stake in the company.

And here is Gareth Soloway. He anticipates a correction on the Nasdaq and the S&P500; but is bullish on gold (12.5 minutes in).

The interview gives a wonderful insight into the mind of a trader. I particularly like the moment where he says he saw the spike in the 10 year treasury yield, and immediately shorted it.

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Market-Analysis/3242/2021-03-02/Stock-markets-is-the-honeymoon-over-Gareth-Soloway-on-how-to-trade-now#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DMarket-Analysis

Here's Lobo Tiggre on the gold price. Questions by the excellent David Lin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezFXCUni-ak.