Member Info for ID78

Update 13th Jan… then 4th Feb.

What’s the bets the next drills results are end of the month with PDAC the following week?…

Short answer - we don’t know the current grades. We can guess that the grade was about 0.5g/t for the last (500oz) pour, but ultimately we don’t know.

The last RNS did state they have been mining lower than expected grades in the final stages of mining pit 2. They expect 1 to 1.2 g/t from pit 1 which they are re-entering.

I think this corroborates the 0.5g/t calc to some degree.

Question is whether they do hit 1 to 1.2 g/t (which is lower than the 1.6g/t in the pit 1 table).

For me to buy GLR Id need to see 1000oz a month happening. It not happening means ops aren’t doing very well. Or the gold grade was ‘optimisitic’.

Clearly if they do hit 1.0g/t and it was 0.5g/t that produced 500oz then 1000oz is entirely feasible…

But yeah reality is not matching that presentation at the moment..

I did email and ask if they could confirm the gold grade of the last pour. If they answer I will share the response

Had a proper look at the table and it does make little sense.

If the 7g/t is to be believed then the ore (missing in the table) would be 150kt. Meanwhile 663kt has been mined at an average grade of 2.5g/t.

It does state JORC and grade increases with depth but I am struggling to believe that 70% of the pit was mined at an average grade of 2.5g/t and the average grade of the remaining 30% of the ore) is 7g/t.

It does feel really quite wrong. I might drop them an email and see if they respond as most of the gold is in pit 4 and if that is wrong it changes things considerably

One more comment … I’ve no idea when they will hit pit 4 but I understand the plan is to hit pit 1 shortly.

Pit 1 has an average grade of 1.6g/t. So there is a good chance of producing 1500oz a month. If we assume that AISC of $1500 and the $3000 POG then that’s more than $2mill free cash flow a month.

For a £10mill MCAP?…..

Hi Dia, hope you’re doing well!

Pit 4 is an absolute stonker, isn’t it! Of course the flip side is that without it there really isn’t much gold in the other pits. I posted on the GRL page this week and they’ve done ok in selling 500(ish) oz last month. They are aiming for 1000oz a month.

What does 1000oz a month mean?…. well we don’t know the AISC but if we are really conservative and assume it is $2000/oz - and the price of gold is $3000/oz then that is $1mill profit a month. MCAP is less than £10mill.

What if the AISC is more like $1500/oz (probably more likely)… then it’s $1.5mill a month.

The best guess is that was from 0.52g/t. So when they mine the 7 g/t pit the gold produced could increase directly proportional which would be 7000oz a month.

AISC will drop, maybe to $1000, maybe lower? So with the current POG - then that would be $14mill free cash flow a month? And the MCAP is less than this?!!

I do really like GRL …. I’m keeping a really close eye on it. If next month the gold is increased again I’ll probably start buying as the signs are all very positive and once goldstone sell out the SP will surely take off? So now is the time to buy and just be patient. But first I do want to see the ounces increase.

I know you like your oil and gas drills… have you noticed Treks tip of PXEN?… it really does sound like it would be right up your street. I even quite like the sound of it!

Hey PP - thanks for responding. It was Trek that made me look into LEX but I thought I must be making a mistake, it didn’t seem as good as Trek was suggesting (my go too is to assume that I must be wrong!)

So for me CGNR and GLR look good with different risks.

GLR need to up their production, which I think they will do, easily (but I can be wrong!). They also need goldstone to sell out.

CGNR need that JV…

CORA I will add to my watch list

Legalwolf, Portfoliopower - thanks you!

The thing I find funny. A true long term holder would want the share price to improve to hopefully bail out on a lower loss (or small profit).

So to that end, would you ….

A) encourage new posters and investors in the hope of traction and positive sentiment, especially in the hope of dragging some OMI liquidity over ….

Or

B) spend your Saturday picking a fight with them?

Ultimately a JV is needed for a many multiples, but like I said which is the best behaviour to improve your holdings…. (A) or (B)

B apparently….. so ,crack on carters lol. Or has PP nailed it. We have a shorter getting a bit nervous?..

Saying 20 years of decline is just simply not right. More a history of significant peaks followed by declines.

So what comes next??? More decline? Or one of those massive moves that CGNR has done in the past? The share price is SO low… and the POG is SO high that there is a significant chance of one of those reversals. And as I said, the liquidity from OMI will head somewhere and very likely to other gold shares… it’s all about timing.

But as I said this is not without risk so only a small buy to start with and only using SOME of the profit made elsewhere…

PP - any thoughts on LEX?

@ppower - thanks for posting, there are some fair and reasonable arguments there. Food for thought.

I may move some OMI profits in here… not anything significant as there are risks, namely funding issues and past management performance (or lack of).

GLA

Lol deathstanding ‘most long term holders will just be looking to exit’. The same was true of the scarred long term holders on OMI, and it’s going well enough. The question is where will that OMI money go once it plays out? My guess is with gold price doing what it’s doing -and- having had success on OMI (gold exploration) there will be appetite for something similar and so CGNR could do well of the back of OMI success.

For the record - not invested, not totally convinced on CGNR. I lurk a bit on these boards and Portfoliopower is a decent enough poster imo, not a short term pumper and dumper.

GLA

What’s the MM play here.

Small rise to try and get some sells…. when that doesn’t work drop the SP to try and spook some sells. When that doesn’t work give up and admit they need to do 15p or more to hope for some sells.

Let’s see how today plays out.

Im going to start profit take from OMI and scale in here over the next 2 weeks.

Why the sells? Probably cos there’s a stubborn resistance at around 8.3p so some trading?… though selling at the low 7s isn’t ideal if you are trading. I see support just below 7p … but I’m no chart guru lol, marketscreener is trying to tell me support is closer to 6p.

Anyway 11 drills coming up fully funded, clearly a bottom forming on the chart ahead of a rise and a low of 4.8p the last year. Anything around 7p is a great buy imo…

10 green boxes sitting on a wall 😂😂

Ok the January update stated 48000 tonnes in Nov and December.

So I’m going to assume it is fair to use that and the grade is closer to the 0.52g/t, so there is plenty of upside to come from mining a higher grade ore in pit 1 where they -expect- grades of 1 to 1.2g/t.

SO

Between the heap leach pads (if / when they finish them) and the better grade of gold 1000oz is very easily possible…..

The other thing is the AISC is lower for the higher grade meaning more profit.

All very encouraging.

Hi Rover….

Ok so we know the recovery rate is 68% so IF the 16.2kg is from the 48000 tonnes then it’s really 33.3tonnes that produced the 16.2kg, meaning the grade is higher and nearer 0.52g/t.

The problem we have (however) is we don’t know the 16.2kg came from 48000tonnes. We know they have now mined 48000 tonnes but how long does heap leaching take? 4 weeks, 6 weeks? So what was mined back then? Less than 48000 tonnes? This is the first update where they have stated they have managed to mine 48000 tonnes. So if the tonnage is lower it means the grade was higher than 0.5g/t?

Wouldn’t it be nice if we just got told that in January 16.2kg recovered from a total mined ore of (however many) tons giving an average grade of say 0.5 g/t at recovery rate of 68%.

No ambiguity or guessing.

Well said cyber - it’s mining, not an Amazon delivery.

L

Got that wrong - 500oz is from 4 pads. So adding pads 5, 6 and 7 increases production to 875oz?

Can someone tell me if all production is by heap leach?

Panman - yes part grade related but in addition, adding 3 more heap leach pads should increase production by a factor of 1.6 so 500oz from 5 pads could become 800oz from 8 pads? …

However it’s ifs buts and maybes.

If the pads are completed then that derisks things for me. If the grade then also increases by only 25% (so a relatively small increase) then you are at 1000oz.

Or if the grade just doubles. But it is all if and buts and guesswork for what we want to happen (the 1000oz).

So for me to buy I’d want to see the grade increased markedly - OR - 8 heap leach pads built. I’m not sure why it’s taking so long. Perhaps the rainy season caused issues? I don’t know. More ‘ifs, buts and maybes’.

Ultimately GRL looks to be heading in the right direction but having been bitten once by a caracal I’ll be a little more cautious this time. Genuinely wish all holders here the best and that I join you soon, and by then Goldstone will have fewer shares…

Thanks for replying legal.

Yeah I agree, the 1000oz was meant to be hit end of 2024, but it has not been hit, so as you say probably best having this on the watch list for now and just wait and see what progress is made… and the goldstone shares could hold this back for a while too.

Thanks again and all the best 👍