Member Info for Ian1970

Will facilities like gyms, swimming pools or spas be open?

Nice to have some hope.

12 May UBS Sell 259.30 290.00 110.00 Downgrades. Shore Capital states under review today. I don't want a barrage of abuse, I am just posting this in case anybody missed it. I want to buy back in at some point (sold at a loss), but think it may have further to fall. I appreciate broker ratings attract mixed views, but there seems to be an increasing number putting a share valuation in the low 100s.

I would expect big falls on all airline stocks on the back of this news, on Monday. Maybe those horrific broker valuations of 125p might not be so unrealistic. But I HOPE I am wrong.

Whatever happens, TUI had huge debts before the current crisis and has borrowed further billions from German government, so I cannot see how people expect it to reach a pre-crisis valuation within three years. Definitely agree that it will jump if there is good news such as holidays resuming or a vaccine, but it will be weak for some time, we're going into a deep global recession, probably the worst in living memory, there won't be much money around, holidays are discretionary spend. That is in my opinion why the broker valuations are coming in so low. Money to be made of course, but requires a steady nerve and luck. (I owned a hotel from 2005-2018 - our revenue dropped by 40% in aftermath of financial crash and took five years to climb back to where we had been). PS: Since the easing of lockdown measures officially to be announced on Sunday has been leaked, have the markets priced this in already?

Does anyone have any idea why it's dropping like a stone today?

Citibank downgraded and set a target of 125p a few days ago. A few people said it wouldn't go that low. Now I'm not so sure.

The assets are also liabilities - the cost of keeping cruise ships seaworthy, planes airworthy, maintaining resorts that they cannot fill... If they had to sell them it would be at a loss. Just tread carefully. I have this feeling that there is a lot more pain ahead.

I wish you were right, but they've got virtually no income coming in with no end in sight.

Party's over. Citibank downgraded earlier today with a target price of 125p.

I think it has further to fall, until a recovery at the end of the year - if there is a vaccine or treatments for Corona. As others have said, cannot see hotels/cruises/airlines opening or operating at normal capacities for some time. Hopefully 2021 will be better.

Thank you if the cap fits.

Even with the bailout funds, can TUI survive this, given that it's likely the lockdown will continue in some form until there is a vaccine - at least a year away. It already had huge debts and hasn't made a profit for a while? Interested in people's opinions.

Correct.

Me too, can't find any reason for it online.

Will this affect TUI though as they are German primarily?

Hold off for a few months.

They announced record bookings earlier this year since Thomas Cook collapsed and it seemed to be turning around, but that was a different world. I think it's 50/50 they survive. I bailed out today, lost a small fortune. I think if they don't get their shares suspended it will go down much further - certainly below 100p. But, while it has big debts it has huge assets, Fuel is cheap which helps profit if/when they start flying/cruising again. Boeing planes will eventually be allowed to fly and when confidence returns people are going to want to book the holidays they cancelled or spend the money they can't spend going out at the moment. So if you have an appetite for risk, there is potentially a lot of money to be made if you can predict the bottom.