Member Info for Ian1970

Thanks to all those on here who post sensible and useful advice. I've sold 25% of my holding in TUI @524p to cover any eventuality of a RI. Still in heavily though.

Grant Shapps will tomorrow announce that overseas quarantine for England will be slashed from 14 to 5 days (Tweet from Piers Morgan so make of that what you will). Also, Brexit deal looks likely by end of the week. Fingers crossed.

Still have most of my portfolio in TUI, just waiting to sell a sensible amount to cover any post RI purchases. Was thinking of selling half my shares if it gets a little closer to 500p (say 480) Any thoughts? I think it's likely there will be one as the debt is huge.

I can't find any news JoeKenny, it may just be that the profit takers have sold out around 430 so it's moving up to a higher trading range as buyers move in. ANAPA on this forum predicted 488p once over 433. He calls it right quite often.

The RI/debt seems to be the biggest fly in the ointment on this one. My thoughts are take some money out when or if it gets near or over 500 mark to cover the eventuality. I read in the October statement that they are delaying delivery on new planes to cut capacity, and are looking to sell assets - though I suspect the market for leisure property/assets will be depressed. We'll see. Still a long-term hold for me though. Certainly, the board seem much more proactive than Thomas Cook.

I think my strategy will be to sell half my holding if it gets above 500p, to cover for the RI. It does seem to be trading in a 400-430 range at moment. Need to do some detailed research.

Joe, I got in at an average of 278p and have stop losses set. But you are right, it is a risky strategy.

I'm out of funds now, 70% of my portfolio is in TUI. Frustrating that it seems to get stuck at c430 then fall back. I see Oxford Vaccine is effective too.

Two bits of good news. The 737 can fly again, Pfizer vaccine even more effective than first reported with mild, well tolerated side effects. Glad I stayed in. Just hope we can get past this 430 sticking point.

And they announced disappointing earnings. There was a sharp drop and a gradual slow recovery as the year went on, then a big spike when Thomas Cook went under.

Seems to hit 430p then fall back. Held on, currently about 17K up on my stake so tempted to sell but I still believe 600p is achievable in new year. But I am usually wrong.

The question for me is do I sell out (average 302p) around 420-430p, as last time it seemed to peak at this, and buy back in lower, but risk losing if it carries on rising or just sit tight as I'm think it's heading over 600p.. I wish I had a crystal ball.

Moderna vaccine works and Brexit talks resuming. Guess.

Agree with all of that. Lots of headlines about life returning to normal by next winter, and R rate (in UK_ falling rapidly etc. The only fly in the ointment is Brexit now. My gut feeling is there is a lot of posturing going on, but there will be a deal, which will send the FTSE and European stocks soaring. Agree with ANAPA that it is undervalued. Fingers crossed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8937023/Vaccine-fuels-holiday-bookings-surge-travel-firms-enquiries-shoot-up.html

It is a massive debt but there are fundamental differences between TUI and Thomas Cook. TUI have already said they will not be paying dividends until debt is brought down. It won't disappear overnight and it will be a drag on growth as will a looming recession, but TUI is IMHO in a good position to ride it out. I think the SP Is undervalued and will grow steadily next year, but there will be plenty of bumps on the way. I've a pretty substantial holding and I could have bailed today with a nice profit but I think there is a lot more to be made. I am usually wrong, but I could see 600p by next summer, if the vaccine is rolled out and effective along with 10 minute testing and all the other promised innovations against the virus.

Yes, I am bracing myself for big falls on Monday if/when a lockdown is announced. Unless there is any mitigating news.

Any ideas?

There is the vaccine news and also Barnier is staying longer in London so hopefully there will be a Brexit deal too. I expect strong rises tomorrow too. I topped up early on Friday, average 304. Hope I haven't jinxed it. Good luck to all.

Front page headline in The Mail. Think we're on an upwards trajectory now. Wish I'd bought more now when they were below 300p. Good luck everyone.