Member Info for Ian1970

Hope this is the start of a correction as price seems to be historically low given all the data. Dividend due too later this week. Question for me is whether to keep in for long-term or take a quick buck. While I think the world economy (along with air travel) will recover this year, possibly quite sharply, there is excess capacity in the oil markets which could dampen oil price. Decisions.

I don't think the move to green energy is looney - it is the future - the oil companies with their huge resources and expertise are maneuvering themselves to take advantage of this market. In theory, in 10 years, only electric cars will be sold. which will reduce demand for oil, but we will need to charge cars up i.e. forecourts, roadside charging etc, and need green energy to charge them or some form of hydrogen infrastructure. Imagine if Polaroid had the foresight to pioneer digital cameras.

Possibly today's fall is the news on the UK economy, but otherwise, I don't really get it, especially with the ex-dividend date due next week. I found this article today, but tbh I don't think it is overly useful: https://investomania.co.uk/2021/02/why-has-the-bp-share-price-fallen-10-in-one-month/

I bought 10Ks worth at just below 260p on Monday, thinking I was getting a bargain. I think that the restrictions on air travel, which look set to continue (Schapps saying don't book holidays etc) is weighing on price as demand for fuel will be lower. At some point, probably in next six months, this will change with vaccine rollout etc and I think (hope) that we will see rises. Travel stocks have also been hit. Personally, I could take a small loss and get out, but I am pretty confident of capital growth and not many companies are paying decent dividends at moment, so hanging on.

@Hash - sadly, I think you are right. Then Grant Schapps has told people not to book holidays, today. Lastly, the price is double its low of last year (taking into account the post RI adjusted price), in that context it does not look cheap. I would bet on a Chinese company snapping it up at a bargain price later this year. It probably will survive in some form as it is a strong brand with lots of assets, but this summer is lost, the debt mountain is growing again, and I don't think it will be the same company by the end of the year. I am holding off buying for now. Just my opinion as a private investor.

Do you have a link to this otherwise smacks of BS.

Hope so, I've just bought a chunk.

That is my thought - that this is a good entry point, especially with the US stimulus around the corner and demand for oil likely to increase if airtravel resumes/lockdowns lifted etc.

Been trading for two years, made a good return on travel stocks recently. I notice this share has had a bad run this year, despite oil price rising, ex dividend date looming, based on historical data it seems to look cheap. I was thinking of buying around £10Ks worth tomorrow. Been researching articles, one warned of a "oil price correction is due." Just trying to gauge (sensible) opinion on here. Would be grateful for any balanced advice?

I have a feeling TUI will be bought out at some stage, probably by a Chinese or Russian investor with deep pockets. The brand is very strong internationally and it will go on in some form, it's just what form and how that will effect shareholders.

Quite different businesses. TUI is more than just an airline, hotels, cruise ships, experiences etc. Plus the debt.

With the adjustment for the RI shares, the current price is twice what it was in October, questions I ask myself, what has changed, revenues will not be coming in and debt will have gone up (some paid off by RI). Likely most/all of this summer will be written off. So IMO the share price reflects an anticipation by the markets that travel will return to normal when the vaccine rollout is further down the line. Many people are sitting on holidays they chose to rebook rather then obtain a refund so that will eat into revenue. IMO this is overpriced by 20%. However, as others have said, the moment we get news of loosening of travel restrictions e.g. People allowed to travel if they have a vaccine certificate, I can see it soaring. Personally, I am holding off buying back in for now, but if it were to dip below 300p, I will buy back in, long term it will be fine. I am not an expert, I am not trying to deramp or ramp, just giving you my opinion as a private investor. Good luck.

It concerns me as I think they are not telling us the whole story.

Agree - realistically, I think - and this is only my opinion - that the share will fall before it rises, it requires a strong nerve and a long term outlook. I feel that this summer is mostly lost, but sentiment will change in a few months when the vaccine rollout is further along (particularly in Europe and USA) and there is a lot of pent up demand. Meanwhile the debt is racking up - but again, TUI has a lot of assets and will probably have to sell some. My position - (sold out a while back at 500ish), I'm holding off for now, but will jump in hopefully at some point. Good long term gains, lots of volatility in the short term. Good luck all.

I'm not trying to deramp, I am considering buying back in. My concern is that I think we're going to lose most of this summer, and also I worry about these new strains of the virus. I just have a bad feeling about this, with the debt and cash burn.
*I sold at 512p last year, I currently do not hold TUI shares

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9145999/Travel-firms-report-surge-bookings-50s-vaccine.html
I'm holding off buying in again personally for timebeing because of the debt, but this article is positive.

Wait for RI. I would say that this is not a good entry point.

Parsley 2 - it's up there with the most stupid FB post league table, my favourite, which is an American girl who said "I just learned in school today that China are 15 hours ahead of us in time, like how totally bad that they didn't warn us about 9/11."

Personally, with an RI around the corner, I think it's overpriced. That is just my opinion. I sold out over 500p, missed an opportunity to buy in at under 400p last week pre-brexit, (Though I made money on other holdings), fear of the RI stopped me as then I thought it was good value. I think you have missed out on this surge (as I have). The debt will weigh down on share price for some time. Long term, wait until the RI IMO then I think TUI has good long term prospects, once vaccine is rolled out people are desperate to travel. If you do buy in now, make sure you have enough in reserve to buy the discounted RI shares. Just one opinion and I am not an expert. DYOR

I think there's more pain to come before eventual recovery. Which is why I sold out at over 500 and will not buy back in now until RI and confirmation that vaccine is effective against the mutated virus. (The early evidence is pointing to the fact is will be). If you're looking for positives, there is no doubt massive pent-up demand from customers (like me) who have not been able to travel for a year and miss the sun, TUI has a strong brand, will have less competitors, has lots of assets and the German government will likely save it, but the debt is huge and will weigh on SP for years to come. All that being said, there is potential for good growth if they can get through what is hopefully the final hurdle. Just my opinion. Good luck to all.