Member Info for Ian1970

Baz - you echoed my thoughts exactly. I've got £5K in here as a punt, sold out the rest over the last few weeks, some at profit some at break-even (more or less). It could go either way, and personally I can't afford to take the risk, but I suspect some will get lucky. The debt is the issue here, with another year of restricted travel to contend with. Also, when the CEO sells off massive chunks of shares it makes me wonder how much confidence he has and what he knows.

I agree that closing down shops is not a bad thing - the trend is towards online booking. (I owned a travel business until 2018). The overheads on running shops with fully repairing leases and business rates etc makes little sense in the modern world and IMO TUI should concentrate on the online model competing with Expedia and the likes. I can see a Russian/Chinese billionaire buying it up TBH. Really touch and go with this company IMO. Sold another chunk this morning and now just have a small amount invested. Nerves got me, but good luck to those with larger holdings - potentially you could make a lot and I will have lost out, but the debt to equity ratio is frightening and I got spooked by CEO and big institutions selling off.

I'm now wondering how far this will fall. It seemed unthinkable it would go below 300p even a few days ago. Fuming.

I find Motley Fool changes its mind more than the weather.

Inflation reduces debt by devaluing money. Hence people mortgaging themselves to the hilt in the 70s with gasp-horror £10K mortgages, which seemed laughable by the 80s. If they raise interest rates to quell inflation, which has been a traditional monetary policy, agreed, the cost of borrowing goes up. But interest rates have been below 1% for 13 years, the word's governments quietly allowed inflation to rise (not to 70s levels obviously) to inflate away the huge debts accumulated after the banking crisis in 2008. I do believe inflation will go up, because of huge government spending/money printing apart from anything, but I do not believe interest rates will rise significantly - aside from anything the UK and other governments have borrowed so much that they would become insolvent. Effectively you will have negative "real" interest rates. I hope that explains the point.

Still has a bit further to fall IMO. BUT.... In a few weeks time, the EU will have got its act together, Most of UK will be vaccinated, vaccine supply issues will be sorted, and the talk will be on how to get us all travelling again. COVID passports etc. Spain, Turkey, Greece etc need tourism and people like me are desperate for a sunny holiday with lots of spare cash accumulated over last year. That's when IMHO we'll see some big SP gains. Look longer term than knee-jerk reactions.

Inflation reduces debt.

That is actually a useful post, Robert (for a change).

Europe have basically said they cannot prevent a third wave - I suspect that is the reason behind today's sharp fall. While it is in my interest for the share to rise, I think realistically it's going to take a hit now. But what do I know, I said on my last post I didn't think it would go below 400 and it has. On a positive note, these are all good opportunities to buy in/top up low. Good luck to all.

Israel, which seems to be leading the world in the vaccination roll-out, has seen COVID cases continue to drop, even though lockdown is being eased. (Check the news yourselves). This says to me that a normal life is not far away. I expect volatility, some sharp falls and rises, but ultimately, i think we will see confidence return, the airports will suddenly be busy again and we'll see some big gains here (fingers crossed). Personally I am hovering over the buy button to top up, just trying to gauge where the bottom is. It's whether 400p will be breached. I'm not sure it will. IMO.

I will top up if it stays around the 420p on that basis, ANAPA. I note SAGA, one of my other holdings has had a couple of bad days too, but other travel companies have done well.

Tempting to top up here, but I am worried whether it is sinking in that the summer is likely to be a write-off. (Polite) views welcome. I hold a chunk of these shares.

Hopefully it will regain some ground tomorrow as France and Germany have said they will quickly resume using the Oxford Vaccine. Plus our cases and deaths have fallen dramatically today. We'll see.

I cannot imagine it would go that low, but you never know. The EU **** up on vaccines is going to compound TUI's problems sadly, and I think this year will be pretty much written off or certainly nowhere near normal, sadly, IMO. To my mind, the current SP looks a little overvalued when you compare what is was six months ago. I say this as a beleaguered shareholder myself, not a deramper, but I am hanging on in there as I do feel there will be growth later in the year. We'll see. As a few people have said, put in a drawer and forget until 2022 onwards.

Turkey and Portugal opening up - huge destinations for TUI. Hopefully the markets will react positive on Monday.

Personally I think the easy money has been made with this share. IMHO there'll be another jump when countries open up and vaccine rollout is further down the line, but I think, while long-term is will rise as the whole industry recovers, in the short term is will hover around the range its been at for the last few days. Definitely a hold for me as long-term prospects are good, I try to ignore the daily market knee-jerk reactions.

It is following a similar pattern to last year - I expect 400p as in my previous post. But it will go up as quickly as it has gone down plus some, in my opinion. Which is usually rubbish so ignore it. The reality is probably that we won't see air travel back to anything like normal until next year. I am a brave holder so I am definitely not trying to deramp, sadly opinions of small investors like me have no impact. Should it get close or even below 400 I will top up.

I can see the SP falling back to around 400p and hovering around that mark for a couple of months, before rising sharply once we see flights leaving again and the reality hits that we actually are going to get back to some kind of normality and can go on holiday again (at least if vaccinated). I speak as a holder. But 95% of the time I am wrong.

Nothing in the budget as far as I can tell about helping airlines back on their feet. Correct me if I am wrong. However, will be good for the economy as a whole as lots of spending.

You echoed my thoughts exactly. But the SP is still way up compared to a week ago.