Member Info for Ian1970

All joking aside, I would bet on a second wave coming and it being quite serious, with the implications to international travel. I would not be surprised to see new lows here. Nobody knows of course. I hope I am wrong, apart from anything, I want to go on holiday somewhere warm. All I can say with almost 100% certainty is there will be volatility. Even safer stocks such as utilities are performing badly. Good luck all.

Sorry about that, but I've been to classes with Daciadusterindung.

Second wave is coming. Airbridges will be reversed. TUI up to its neck in debt and will need another bailout. People going on holiday will spread virus more. Hotel swimming pools and facilities closed. SP will go below 300. Unless there is a vaccine. In which case it will go above 600. Don't bury your head in the sand.

Vaccines are looking promising, that will be the real turnaround. If that happens shares will soar. Until then TUI will burn through cash until next year, by which time it may need another loan from the German government. Until we have a vaccine, even though people may want to book holidays, they probably won't be able to take them at least not in the way they may expect. None of us have a crystal ball, but I can say without doubt that there will be huge volatility in this and other travel stocks so only go in if you can afford to take a potential loss or have strong nerves. Don't expect the SP to get anywhere near its previous highs (over 1000) for many years. Mass unemployment will dampen long term demand, Just my view. I was waiting for an entry point but for the time being have opted for "safe" stocks.

Did anyone fall for this FFS?

This is my view and why I have held off buying in. 1) Economy has contracted more than people thought (todays news) - mass unemployment is around the corner and will inevitably depress demand for holidays 2) Airbridges were being talked about for a while so were priced in 3) Can't fly to USA and now Greece 4) A second wave seems inevitable - outbreaks in Leicester, USA, Germany and if they happen the airbridges will be reversed. In the short term I am pessimistic about this share, hence holding off, but I am following it closely as it is cheap and the vaccines for COVID19 look promising. If they work and there is a mass rollout, travel stocks will fly. But it is a risk. If you're in, I would say hold. If you're thinking of buying, I would wait. SP could fall before rising. That is only my opinion. I've bought relatively safe stocks with dividends in utilities for now.

Looking for safer stocks during this turbulent time? They seem cheap and a dividend is due this week? Any advice?

My doctor says a second wave is inevitable, it is just how serious it will be. A vaccine would send the share soaring and tests look promising.

Still waiting for an entry point. As I said yesterday, I was concerned that the markets had already priced in the lighter travel restrictions as they had been widely leaked. Weighing on sentiment are the fears of a second wave (and its seriousness), particularly in Germany, and there won't be holidays in the USA. Today's rise is lacklustre so far and less than people hoped. I think the issue is that while there is massive pent-up demand and people want to travel, it's the uncertainty if restrictions come back, the difficulty people have had getting refunds , the huge discounts on holidays affecting profitability, and whether travel companies can deliver holidays. I want to buy in, as I think medium-long term these shares are good, but I will hold off for now, which may well be a costly mistake. If you're in already, I would definitely hold.

Problem with Daciadusterindung is that he is a serial shorter and goes around on this and other websites trying to deramp shares. He is listed on a warning site, therefore I would ignore everything he says - he has his own agenda.

go away dung

Not sure whether this has already been priced in, otherwise I would expect rises on Monday.

Not sure if you are a deramper, but I can see that happening. There is a growing realisation that this virus is not going anywhere and this will have long-term implications for international travel.

I was thinking 350 too, but I have this niggling feeling it may go lower to 330.

Given the packed beaches, raves etc going on, and the gestation period of two-weeks, we will have a good idea by mid-July of the seriousness of the second wave, which now seems inevitable. I am looking for an entry point, but will hold off for a few weeks. Glad I didn't buy in at 420, when it seemed to look cheap.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/06/24/could-tui-and-easyjet-shares-be-bargains-of-the-year/

Interesting article from I site I subscribe to that may be of interest. Mixed messages and it really only reflects what we've all been saying on here.

It's not the pent up demand for people wanting to go on holiday - I want to - it's more whether travel companies can supply them. Lots of uncertainty, particularly the emergence of second waves could meant further lockdowns etc, BUT at some point there will likely be a vaccine or a breakthrough in treatment for COVID19 and then this will fly. I keep dithering, waiting for an entry point, which has proved to be good judgment - for once (I've had mixed luck), If you've bought in, hang in there, long term it will grow, if not I would wait a little longer, I think we could see it POTENTIALLY going down to 300 again. But I am not psychic and could be completely wrong. Long term, I think it is a good buy as could well be over 600 or higher by end of year if the vaccines (which look promising) are rolled out. Those are just my thoughts. These are certainly more interesting my other utility based shares. I think the risk of TUI going under are very small.

Will be 150p by close of play tomorrow. I know this because Daciadusterinmong told me and I believe everything he says.

Get his name right though. It's Daciadusterindung.

Daciadusterindung and his deramping.