Member Info for Ian1970

I was waiting for your post ANAPA, I was thinking about topping up, now I definitely will. You usually call it right.

If it drops tomorrow regarding news about Turkey, I am going to top up.

Volatility will last for months, SP jumps or crashes depending on the news, but if you are brave, big gains to be made here long term. All the indications are that a vaccine will be around next year, and there will be huge pent up demand, TUI will survive and have a market dominating position. I've bought more shares today. Potentially you could double you money in a year and then longer term even more. SP was 1080p before COVID19, and that was considered a bargain at the time, but I'd settle for 600p by mid 2021.

IMO the market had priced in expected good news ahead of this statement and overreacted then has corrected itself. SP is way up from two weeks ago. The salient points for me in the statement. There is money coming in, there is good control, on costs, there is huge pent up demand, TUI will survive and have a market dominant position as weaker competitors are folding. There will be fluctuations on the way, but I really believe SP will be over 800 by mid next year, IF THERE IS AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE, and all the trials are looking very promising. I promised I would not miss out if share price fell below 300p again, and I didn't. Was tempted to sell at 400p yesterday, but see it as a long term investment now.

The GDP figures were expected so I don't think that's had much effect on SP. Tomorrow will be interesitng.

I thought we hadn't seen Dacia dusterindung on here for a while. A serial deramper listed on warning websites with his own agenda. If you are not aware of him, don't let him get in your head. Plus he can't spell.

All of the indications from the (impartial) experts. are that the vaccines will be effective and will be available some time next year. That's when confidence will return IMO and you will likely see massive gains. They're saying it will take three years for travel to return to pre-covid levels. But until then there will be a lot of volatility. I am on the verge of buying in. But I have been dithering for months. Could really see this over 800 in three years, which is still low compared to 1200 a couple years or so ago, but there is more debt and they are not paying dividends. Also there will be less competition. Be brave, and listen to ANAPA - he's a genius.

Usual panic relating to lockdown being reimplemented. I suspect, if recent history with this share is repeated, it will show strong rises on Monday, once everyone takes stock, they realise that they've overreacted. But who knows. I'd be surprised if it goes much lower than 290.

You'll be ok, hand in there. The worst is over.

Agreed- the markets seemed to have shrugged this off. Cost savings, and they like decisive (ruthless) action from management. Also it could be viewed as moving towards a more online model.

Tui to close 166 stores in UK,

Be 5p by end of close today, then nationalised by German government tomorrow. I know this as a politician is a friend of my Aunt's gardener's neice's second cousin's grandfather's illegitimate son's wife. You heard it here first.

Good question. They have huge assets and money is cheap at the moment and is likely to be for many years, plus they have inferred that they will not be paying dividends for some time until the debt is brought down. However, it will weigh down balance sheet and company valuation. I've heard the rumours over rights issue, I think the share price would need to recover significantly before this occurred. If you don't have holdings and are considering investing, my advice (I am not a professional) is consider how risk adverse you are and how much you could possibly afford to lose. There is potentially decent money to be made, but it is high risk. My position is I have been waiting for an entry point (missed out on price at 278 as I dithered), but I think we may see it dip under 300 again over next few weeks.

Have held off buying these as I fear the impact of a second wave has not been priced in, even though it was widely suspected/predicted. Don't think anyone is in doubt that it will fall on Monday, probably sharply, lots of panic selling, but if the outbreaks can be controlled reasonably quickly, the quarantine could be reversed. I suspect they will be a factor in life, being introduced and rescinded across the world and that will be the new normal for a while, so lots of yoyoing in share price. In the medium term vaccines are looking very promising, (maybe rollouts Q2 next year), so assuming TUI survives, which it should do, there is a lot of money to be made once confidence returns - even with dampening economic factors. I am looking for an entry point, having sold my "safe" shares last week. Oh, one factor people have not mentioned as far as I have seen is the tensions between Greece and Turkey. Just my opinions. Good luck all.

Nothing is impossible, but it is unlikely. Very different company to TCG. More likely it will consolidate, sell off assets and be a smaller operation. I think the German government will step in (again) if necessary.

This is an article on the Elliot Wave Principle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle If the SP ever falls below 300 I have 20k in an ISA left to buy in. Rest of my portfolio is in lower risk/high dividend stocks.

Depends on what happens with the virus. If the vaccines work and can be distributed widely and quickly, or it loses its potency (like SARS) or there is some sort of acquired immunity which makes reinfection less severe (like flu) then international travel will return to near-normal (taking into account the likelihood of worldwide rising unemployment), though that is likely counter balanced by pent up demand. That will IMO mean share prices will rise above 600 quite quickly and possibly go above 1000 in 2-3 years. So potentially a lot of money to be made. The risk is that the vaccines are not particularly effective or long-lasting, e.g. the virus mutates too quickly, if this happens and the restrictions on travel remain, TUI will likely need another bailout and the share price will fall to new lows. TUI is in a better position than most to ride it out - particularly as a large percentage of its sales operations are overseas e.g. China, but it is still risky. I was looking for an entry point but have held off as I am cautious. I've chosen steadier stocks, which are unlikely to provide huge capital growth but will give me a dividend income, but I follow this SP closely.

My holding in this is for steady dividends rather than capital growth. I bought £13,500 shares recently at 895. I believe they will trading around 900- 950 by the end of the year, despite OFGEN. I am not planning to sell, just take dividends. I think for capital growth there are better bets out there if you are a risk taker e.g. airline stocks.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6996212/National-Grid-extremely-disappointed-with-Ofgem-draft-determination-for-RIIO-T2
Bought these shares as a "safe haven." Just proves there is no such thing.

S&P CCC too, but It's only saying what we already know, that this stock is a big risk with potentially big rewards. But the facts are there is not much money coming in at moment and lots of overheads along with big borrowings. Just need that vaccine.....