Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

It is to be commended as start in the right direction.

MLM does feel the PFG story is misunderstood (you think) and a series of investors updates
are planned for the end of the year.

In terms of 'guidance' PFG 'hope' to show 'measured progress' across the business. I'd imagine that the extent of this progress should be about the same length as that of a bit of string.

It was a safe conversation amongst friends. However if the penny has dropped, if PFG recognise that their pitch to the market has been weak/waffly and there are prepared to address this going forward I'll take it as a positive.

Like MLM I quite like numbers. Since PFG announced their results on March 31st ...

- they have fallen something like 46%
- and have been the 341st worst performer of the FTSE 350

"extraordinary increases in operating costs, most notably diesel prices and explosive consumables"

When it comes to the dividing up the slim pickings at the end of the year 'non controlling interests' will be prioritized. Ordinary shareholders will standing about with two arms the same length.

I would not offer advice Barrieprov - unlike Baron Rothchild (allegedly) “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

If I had more faith in PFG I might take the Barons advice. For me for now the middle ground for me is sit tight.

GLA

Mistake on my part : director sales were only partial sales to satisfy tax liabilities. Strike the last point of my last post from the record.

Indeed Barrieprov we live in uncertain times. My instinct on PFG is that 'should' be gaining profitable traction from here but they are not doing much of a job of selling their story - so my conviction like that of the market is not high. Then there is the history of disingenuous attractive headline numbers that they are 'delighted with' but after the oxymoronic 'usual exceptional' charges disappear before your very eye.

GLA

I'm holding mainly because (famous last words) I think the upside/downside balance favours the upside.

But I guess both I and the market generally are struggling with PFG to quantify either scenario. Which is why we are where we are.

Strictly speaking post covid and post CCD/Woodford debacles they should be on the rise. Strictly speaking consumer credit/PFG should be able to make hay in the face of tightening household finances (as long as they don't allow credit risk to deteriorate).

Like Theborn I suspect that management do game / obfuscate the numbers with a view to creating wriggle room but that they do it to an extent that is counterproductive. Basically they need to say what they are going to do and do what they say.

It probably also doesn't help that both Neeraj Kapur the Finance director and MLM drop shares acquired as part of their remuneration like hot potatoes

Fingers crossed TOD that there is a quid pro quo involving SEPL

Personally I think Powell is a clown and the Federal reserve is a scam.

If you disagree that the time to acquaint yourself with G Edward Griffins "The Creature From Jekyll Island"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J93k

But ...

At least he attempts to provide some forward guidance.

I have been thinking about the "We don't give guidance" stance that PFG generally take. For most markets and companies this would not wash. Management are there to serve shareholders. Do they think shareholders don't want guidance / prefer to stumble about in the dark?

The share price has fallen 40%+ since they announced their finals in March. Either

a) the share prices is in the toilet because it deserves to be or
b) a case has not been made to assert PFG's true value

In either case there has been failure in the stewardship of shareholders capital. Which is why I think MLM has nodded off at the wheel.

If and when PFG organize their 'Capital Markets Day' I really do hope they offer some 'guidance' as opposed to a lot of 'this what we do' flannel.

Went to the PFG 'shareholder hub' in an attempt to make sense of the numbers.

On the landing page they proudly announce 'Adjusted profit before tax - £167.8m" !

That's my problem. After deductions for - Amortisation of acquisition intangibles (£7.5m), charge discontinued operations (£95.5m), Exceptional items (£60.7m) the actual final profit was £4.1m

When the company can be blind sided by such large hits how do we know where we will end up. Hopefully ? if they had a comparable APBT this year they'd keep most of it ? In which case they'd be very profitable.

I think (I'm hoping) that you are right Theborn - that the biggest failing is a lack of transparency/clarity and an associated fear of accountability.

I've already said I think the annual report is a shambles. I have searched the last 'finals' and 'interim's for the word 'guidance' . Effectively I turned up diddly

I suppose you can't miss an earnings forecast if you never gave one / simply waved your arms about.

So I'm hoping that the current price graph which looks like a terminal nose dive is an over reaction to the lack of visibility and that PFG will pull out of the dive soon before hitting the ground.

Since Feb 24th 2022 (date of Russian invasion of Ukraine) FXPO (Ukraine iron ore producer ) has fallen 40%

In the same time PFG has fallen +40%.

FXPO have an excuse. Whats PFG's ?

Whatever happened the 'Capital Markets Day' that PFG said they arrange at the last interims ?

I was looking forward to the plummy voice of bluffer MLM and an explanation of the ballooning central costs,
concrete guidance on future business (MLM is an advocate of numeracy - so numbers would be good), generally an assurance that all is well.

Like Barrieprov it has crossed my mind that both MLM and the CFO get a % of their salary in shares - ie if PFG tanks then more shares. There could be method to the madness ?

My impression is that buried in the noise/words are two factions. One that wants to say that Nigeria is open to international investment / best practice and another that leans more towards the Venezuelan model. The Venezuelan model might not be a good model but at least they'd own it.

Meanwhile SEPL keep making positive improvements eg the recent commissioning of Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline, the near term delivery of ANOH.

I hope things work out for them and they don't get a slap in the face.

I encountered another example of mindless ESG group think this afternoon.

I tried to buy some loose carrots in Tesco. Apparently Tesco think that it is bad for the planet to provide bags for such items. Not even paper bags sourced from ethically managed forests ;)

This is in mind blowing disregard for the fact that the resultant packaging would be, by several orders of magnitude, less than that of 99.x% other products in the store.

If Tesco think they know what is best for the customer and the planet then they should simply not be selling products such as 'bottled water'.

Off topic and not. There is no thinking/joined up plan for ESG. This certainly will have consequences in the energy sector.

Also do we deduce that these figures deal with the operation of AGPC independently of who supplies the material ? In which case there is presumably another delta for being able to push X% of the content ? where I think X in the case of SEPL is 10%?

Hi SeaTank - at a point I did squirrel away this link (from Jul 2019)

https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/jn0oq0lg/cmd_master_lagos_05072019.pdf

Page 30 - "AGPC PROJECTED RESULTS" seems to be in line with your figures

Never saw the point of road tax (almost as imbecilic as the BBC tax ). Whatever purpose it has historically envisioned to have would have been better served by simple fuel duty.

As for the full EV's - keep the details. In a few years time there will be legal campaigns "Where you too miss sold an E.V. on the basis that it had a lower carbon foot print than a petrol car?"

https://youtu.be/S1E8SQde5rk?t=469

In a nutshell even if they are powered by windmills if they have a decent range the increased production carbon costs will never be recouped in the life of the vehicle.

Full EVs should be banned in favour of plug in hybrids with limited electrical range. The limited electrical range will do most people most of the time with a petrol fallback when needed. With PHEVS we don't need to rape the planet to produce them to the extent that is required for a full EV with decent range.

Thanks LTI.

I note that the company are proposing to buy 1 in 40 shares @ 250p.

This seems like a hybrid dividend / buy back move. I suppose it makes sense for the company given that they reckon their NAV/share is 329p.

If this happens - does it just happen automatically or is some action required ?