Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

Maybe he just didn't want to wait for a dividend

Is anything to be read into the fact that Juan Morera has disposed of £150k+ CRS shares post the announcement of the FSP ?

So have I got his right ...

Kistos / RockRose Energy have the same registered office located at 9th Floor, 107 Cheapside, London, EC2V 6D ?

Ex HUR legals with a question mark over their head (one soon relocating to Greece) are now ensconced at RockRose headed by a CE with allegedly dodgy form at IGAS ?

Meanwhile Kistos are organising some unexplained 'Scheme of arrangement' ?

According to Senseman he is only getting ready to pay his gas bill.

Good luck Barrieprov.

Even if I was not invested in PFG I'd have my fingers crossed for those who have been on the receiving end of what I suspect is needless stress in recent times. There may well be shareholders who have been burnt, there may well be employees who have seen high hopes for SAYE schemes dashed (if PFG offer them). For whatever reason and regardless of what ultimately comes out in the wash management has clearly woefully mismanaged shareholder and market communication.

Hi Barrieprov.

When I post on a board I'm neither trying to persuade or dissuade. Rather I'm trying clarify my own thinking.

My own position on PFG is that in recent years I have watched them move from one crisis to another. This year after they have finally returned to a small profit (and would have produced good results bar the obligatory "exceptionals" ) I took an initial interest @ 240p. I was a bit early.

It remains the case that the accounts are littered with 'provisions' but I am speculating that these will ultimately be identified as 'prudent but unnecessary precautions'. Further in the absence of guidance, shareholder engagement or information over and above the perfunctory minimum my working hypothesis is that senior management working to their own timetable are using their black belts in number fudgery and information hiding to game the system. I'm speculating that 'when the moment is ripe' magically things will come up 'smelling of roses'

Since my initial investment I have averaged down to arrive at a weighted average of 180p. From here I'm planning on sitting on my hands until 300p or the 2022 results are published.

My analysis could be entirely wrong. DYOR. GLA.

Got for it MLM!

Prove Theborn wrong!

Polish this turd!

Hi SeaTank - as you seem to think I'm feeble minded and/or have an ulterior motive beyond sharing a view I'll explain why I think the Q3 statement was a major profit warning.

Quote H1 "Full-year guidance narrowed to 50-54 kboepd"
Quote Q3 "Full-year guidance adjusted downwards to 40-44 kboepd"

Doing some maths

H1 production = 49.9 kboepd x 181days = 9,031.9 kboe
9 month production = 43.37 kboepd x 273 days = 11831 kboe
12 month guidance = 40x365 .. 44x365 = 146000 .. 16060 kboe

Therefore the Q3 average was (118311-9031)kboe/(273-181)days = 30.42 kboepd

Therefore the Q4 guidance (14600-11831)kboe/(365-273)days .. (14600-11831)kboe/(365-273) = 30.09 .. 45.96 kboepd

If the year ended at the bottom end of guidance then H2 would be a complete right off.

I've been a long time fan of SEPL however post the Q3 statement I have been back peddling furiously on it (or more accurately Nigeria).

I agree with TOD that the outlook for oil is positive - and I don't want to miss it if SEPL is bogged down in local problems

I retain 10% of what I originally owned. I will wait until the year end and some stability/clarity before becoming more exposed.

Nothing more to say on SEPL for now. DYOR. GLA.

Agree with general oil outlook.

On SEPL specifically it depends an whether you view the Q3 statement as a 'bump in the road' or a profit warning.

I tend to agree with you Theborn – I ‘sense’ the company is grossly undervalued and that this is primarily attributable to a communications failure as opposed to a fundamental problem.

The communications strategy (such as it is) seems to be to vaguely mumble some non specific verbiage whilst waving their arms about. Maybe there is an inner circle that is ‘in the loop’ but the market generally seems to be scratching it’s head.

I’m taking comfort from the PRA approval that there is not a fundamental problem (otherwise the PRA will have to drop the ‘P’) and leaning to the view that the downside is quite limited and there is a potentially significant upside – if only the management could be bothered to champion the case. Lets see what the CMD brings.

Presumably in addition to being a financing advantage the PRA approval would have required a 'drains up' inspection on the overall health of the business?

Should be of interest to someone I'd think.

TOD - IMO in normal circumstances SEPL could be, should be would be an exceptional company.

The big question is what happens when a potentially exceptional company meets an exceptionally dysfunctional jurisdiction?

Given what I know this week versus what I thought I knew last week I have shredded my projections for SEPL's. In an ideal world I believe my positive company specific assessment was valid. In the real world I belittled the the country risk. For now pending more stability /clarity I have drastically reduced my exposure. I'm not out. Knowing my luck there would be a RNS in the morning saying that Buhari had issued an irrevocable degree that the Exxon deal should proceed (a good reason not to short).

I'm sure you will see your 97p entry point. Good luck with it.

I have been overweight / expecting big things from SEPL for quite some time. However when I read the Q3 update I have to admit I’m very concerned.

If 6 month average production was 49,924 boepd and 9 month average production was 43,777 boepd
- this means the Q3 average was 30,777 boepd

I would have a said a fall in output from circa 50k boepd to circa 30k boepd was a 'big deal' and should have warranted some sort of RNS. I'm sure we'd all like to know the cause, the probabilty of it being fixed / recurring / worsening.

Meanwhile (even at oil prices of $100+) YTD EBITDA FELL by $4.8m.

If year end production comes in at the bottom end of revised guidance ( 40,000 boepd )
- this would mean a Q4 production of 30,097 boepd

Presumably in this case the 6 month EBITDA would have been the high water mark for the year and the second half of the year would be a write off.

As for “chill and hoover up the dividend” – dividends would dry up if such headwinds persisted.
As for “there is a pipeline of values adds” – there will be no value adds if there is a massive hole in the bottom of the bucket.
As for “Maybe the MPNU deal will go through” – does this come with the same raft of problems ? Do we know how these assets have faired this year ?
As for “the new Amukpe Escravos pipeline will help “ – will it? When I start investigating it looks there isn’t a pipeline in the Delta that has not been compromised (above ground/ below ground/in water/whatever). What is special about this pipeline ?

Does anyone have a handle on the state of the "battle for law and order" in the Niger Delta ? Is there one ? Is it being won or lost ?

Am I over reacting ?

https://newspageng.com/?p=3395
https://punchng.com/oil-theft-fg-should-stamp-out-official-collusion/

Impressive EBITDA. Less impressive is that little or none of it filters through to shareholders.

Looks like that is unlikely to change soon. I note there is no agreement yet with the Israeli Tax authorities regarding their pound of flesh.

PFG closed 2021 @359p and has since fallen 60%. The Q3 update has not stopped the slide. Why?

I have looked at the Q3 statement (again). As Alexei Sayle would have said it is as informative as the “What’s On” page of the Stoke Newington Gazette ( an otherwise blank page with the words – “F... All” )

While there is little in the Q3 statement to support any form of quantitative analysis / measurement of progress it at least pointedly does not throw up any red flags. In my opinion (DYOR) one of 3 things is happening …

- Management are grossly dishonest and should have made a material disclosure that they are aware of
- Management are grossly incompetent and should have made a material disclosure that they are NOT aware of
- In the foggy lack of guidance/transparency the market has despaired of trying to gain any visibility / put a valuation on the company and voted with their feet.

Take your pick. I’m hoping it is the latter and that it can be fixed.

If and when the Capital Markets Day happens – THERE IS NO POINT IN A CMD UNLESS the company are prepared to do a bit of self promotion and provide potential investors with sufficient information to enable them to make informed decisions!

Drat that has come and gonr

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PFG/offer-for-provident-financial-plc-ek046tdqc31tnko.html

Interesting comments at the time ...

The NSF Board believes that today's announcement by Provident:

· shows, once again, that the Provident Board is determined to deflect from its history of self-inflicted wounds and incompetence - its defective leadership, customer failings, destruction of shareholder value, erosion of shareholder trust and strategic vacuum;

· reveals an extraordinary disregard for some of its largest shareholders, experienced investors who, having seen the Provident and NSF teams first-hand, have chosen the NSF proposition and accepted our offer;

· evidences an absurd and misplaced pride in its failings - including congratulating itself for a year in which it had to be rescued by a rights issue and which was shortly followed by a profits warning, the third overseen by Malcolm Le May in his time at Provident;

If management were in possession of any material information that affected the share price it would be incumbent on them to disclose it sooner rather than later.

This does not rule out ineptitude and the possibility that they are 'not on top of things' - an opinion of MLM I have expressed before.

Do we deduce ...

No Capital Markets Day == no financial targets, no customer vision no growth strategy ?

MLM July 26th

"the Group intends to hold a Capital Markets Day to update the market on its financial targets, customer vision and growth strategy."