Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

I would have said the terms that apply are those that Exxon agreed a long time ago.

Either way it is a mess and reflects badly on Nigeria.

The "there is set of rules A, then there was set of rules B, ..more recently there is set of rules N, and we need to arbitrate which rules apply" seems like nonsense IMO.

What was agreed under A is subject to A, What was agreed under B is subject to B etc.

By all means change rules for new business going forward if needs be. However agreed terms should be honoured. If not trust goes out the window. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

At one extreme if un-hedged - then presumably the "$1.2 billion (pre-tax) of non-cash hedge valuation losses" would have made a MASSIVE hole in the "Adjusted Net Debt calculated as 30 June 2022 reported Net Debt of $1,150M"

and the share price would go through the roof ...

at the other extreme DEC are guaranteed to be able to service their debt and pay dividends

but have they got the balance right?

Re "“Does anyone look at the prospect that we could go under?” - they probably should.

Just an opinion : I doubt if BMN will post a profit at the next interim's. I doubt even less that there will not be a deterioration in net debt.

On a cash flow basis they seem to be holed below the water line and taking on water faster than they can bail it. Meanwhile (Jun 22) there are muttering about capex that is nearly twice the MC to get to where they want to be (granted they see the need to show more on the delivery front before taking on such obligations).

Whether BMN "get rich quick or die trying" is an open question. Just an opinion I think it is improbable that their finances are going to improve enough and quickly enough to avoid some form of dilution / capital restructuring.

I really don't think PFG is best served by MLM. I don't think he is in control / on top of things.

Browsed the last annual report. It is a multimedia mess and ridiculously the thick end of 300 pages long. I don't know who MLM/PFG thinks are the audience for a share holders report. It is anything but focused.

I suppose all things are relative and relatively speaking the results are better than PFG have been producing of late. It is probably where I would have 'guessed' they might be. They also seem to do better in the second half of the year. A hold for now.

The red flags for are me are

- ballooning central costs
- The 'Personal loan' section has yet to prove itself. Unless they are very very sure that it going to work out and can provide a clear explanation at their next Capital Markets day I'd like to seem them throttle back/back pedal in this area. It is dragging the results down the way CCD did before it.

Mt Thompson piece does show a potentially lucrative future for SLE

Though "There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip" and Nigeria is a particularly slippy environment. I'm not expecting much headway until concrete implementation is delivered.

I wouldn't be so sure. Financially BMN seem to be stuck in reverse gear.

Net debt
- YE 2020 $38.7m
-JUNE 2021 $54.4m
- YE 2021 $66.7m

Cash
-Q2 2021 $31.6m
- Q1 2022 $12.7m

Add that they seemed to have spooked the market by just 'talking about' the fact that a $151m capex would be required to expand production to 8,000 mtVp.a.

My best guess at the current situation is : Gross debt $1.665bn. Net debt $1.378bn.

The UK gov will see NIL taxes for the foreseeable from ENQ - they have substantial tax losses to offset.
Shareholders will see NIL dividend returns for the foreseeable from ENQ - receipts are require to service loans.

ENQ seems to be a tax dodge / finance trick disguised as an O&G company. Just an opinion. DYOR.

Checked figures in last accounts

Taking into account cash on hand 'Net Debt' = $1.22bn. Since then they may have paid some off ? They certainly added £133m on Apr 21.

My conclusion - for the foreseeable any net receipts are going to be used to pay off debt. Just an opinion.

That seems about right. They are however up to their ears in debt ( £2bn ).

Earnings versus Market Cap + Debt would probably be a more useful metric.

There really out to be no more kitchen sinks at this point. In recent years we have had the following 'exceptional' item costs ...

2017 - 224.6m
2018 - 55.3m
2019 - 26.3m
2020 - 58.9m
2021 - 60.7m

From here on in they'd have to be renamed 'incompetency' costs.

The Q1 trading statement was positive / indicated all was in order.

If there was anything to the contrary at the Jul 27 results then I'd say Le May should be given his marching orders.

When he took over in Feb 2018 PFG closed @ 523p. A year later in 2019 the management view of a NSF offer of ~511p a share was that it was not fair value. Today closed PFG @187p.

Le May has had enough time to put the house in order.

Oh dear. The Investors Chronicle jinx.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SLE/final-results-b1gf1ekwmajhj04.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SLE/proposed-transactions-m47hfn930d4184r.html

Apologies - missed that.

Aim companies are supposed to publish their year end accounts within 6 months of year end.

NCCL's year end is Dec 31. No results have been forthcoming.

I can't believe an auditor would agree that they are a 'going concern'.

Curtains ?

Cameco are very optimistic on the long term uranium outlook. Post the Fukushima wilderness years they feel they are going to have their day in the sun. A few points ...

The real market is the long term contract market. However Cameco feel it would not be prudent to rush into long term contracts for now (quoting Grant Issac) "These are not sufficient prices and they're not sufficient by tens of dollars. Let alone a couple of bucks. We're not close".

Currently world wide there are 440 reactors producing 394,312MW of energy p.a. A further 340 are planned (375, 962 MW of energy p.a). They will take a long time to come on line (though 168 are Chinese). Meanwhile site retirements are being reversed which will also change the market that would previously have been anticipated not so long ago.

For those those of a green energy disposition - it is NEVER going happen without large scale investment in nuclear energy. Only about 10% of the worlds land mass might lend itself to solar/wind. Eg Solar would a complete waste of time in the northern edges of Europe.

Although Russia is not a major source of original yellow cake it is a big player in the enrichment process - going forward enrichment is going to have to be replicated elsewhere and reseeded with original material. Further potentially Russia could interfere with deliveries from from one of the other big sources of original material ie Kazakhstan

As a commodity U308 is a potential inflation hedge.

As assets are valued in dollars YCA is a potential currency hedge.

Currently the assets are on sale at a 25% discount to NAV.

The risk seems to be biased to the upside. DYOR

I'd have said the US Gov move was largely meaningless other than as signal that they might be starting to wake up to reality - though I wouldn't bet on it - I don't think Biden knows whether he is living or stuffed.

In context YCA have just added ~1m lbs and now have ~19m lbs. Sprott have ~ 57m lbs, world annual production ~120m lbs.

You are correct snooz. Treasury shares should have been excluded. I missed that they had cash. A revised calc ...

cash = £16,600,000
shares issued = 183,104,339

X = U308 price/lb = $51.25 (see https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uranium)
Y = lbs held = 18,805,601
Z = dollar rate = 0.825

NAV = (X x Y x Z) + cash) = £811,941,644 M
NAV per share = NAV/shares issued 443.43p
Current share price = 327.80p

Discount to NAV = 26.08%