Member Info for hxulcolrdoh

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWA1nV-EYVYO_kIuCanSSkQ/search?query=serinus

So in the 10 months that SLE has been sitting in a medically induced coma every one else in the O&G sector has been having party.

Even Shell are up about 56 %

The situation at SLE really is the pits.

Hi Ragnar GEMD ended the year Dec 31st 2021 with net cash of $20.9m. In mid Dec the share price was hovering around 45p (it closed Dec 17th @ 45p). I think it IS fair to say that they have 'sat on their hands' if they were committed to share buy backs.

It remains to be seen whether they are serious. IMO: probably they will do little or nothing. Probably at the next AGM there will be a motion 'We seek authority for a share buyback' (by the way we give a Flying Wallenda about ordinary shareholders - ha ha)

There are 140m shares odd issued, and 100m odd in the hands of large institutional investors and if GEMD bought 14m of the remaining 40m shares there should be a major move in the needle.

However they have sat on their hands and done nothing since June 2021 when the share buyback was authorized so I incline to the opinion (but don't know) that they will simply do some token buying as a share price damage limitation exercise.

Anybody care to speculate how many of the 14M they buy before authority expires on June 8th ?

My guess is not many ( though I have made a small tactical return to GEMD having previously sold out - in the off chance that GEMD do something positive for long suffering ordinary share holders )

it doesn't demonstrate anything until ...

"The Existing Authority permits the purchase of a maximum of 14,016,955 shares" is translated into actual confirmed purchases and the needle moves (it should)

It is good news.

Though they were given permission to do this in June 2021 and have been sitting on their hands since.

It would have better to do this mid December when the share price was 45p

CFO didn't buy anything. Was 'granted' 383,105 shares.

Meanwhile a few weeks earlier the CE was 'granted' 1,556,565 shares.

Not good.

Though whatever happens it seems to be win/win for Clifford.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GEMD/notifications-of-transactions-by-pdmrs-ypyunqfste6p4ow.html

Found a (very weak) description here
https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/SeplatPetroleumDevelopmentCo/events/dd5b2821-f781-4ab3-b4db-3ef843f98cb0
~ 1hr:42in

I'm thinking ANOH will eventually allow SEPL to add about 50 MMscfd to their gas offering. Useful. Not game changing - unlike their 'Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited' announcement.

Thanks arsenal58.

I'm trying (and struggling) to understand what delta ANOH will make to SEPL finances and scale of operations.

Information readily available is blurb that it is a 50:50 JV with NGC, was penciled in to cost $700m, is one of 7 critical projects and has a boilerplate capacity to process 300 MMscfd of gas. But what does this mean ?

- how much gas will it actually process ?
- in what timescales ?
- whose gas will process ?
- SEPL currently produce about 100 MMscfd (unfortunately not at North Sea prices) is this figure going to significantly increase ?
- what payback/profitability figures are associated with the initiative ?

Where does the ANOH gas processing project ( $700m development cost ) fit into Seplat financials ?

Does anyone know / have any information ?

Is this EVER going to relist?

It has been nearly 10 months since they suspended. What are the rules that apply to how long they can go off line?

Only a loss of £32.1. Heading in the right direction.

Assuming there is no offsetting match in energy input costs.

Oops! Sorry. Forgot you are only supposed to post on the BMN board while wearing rose tinted glasses

It would be a concern for me. I was rather hoping he'd sort out the obvious production problems.

The question is
1. Did he simply have better opportunities elsewhere
2. Was the task beyond him personally
3. Is the task bigger than any one person

If with hindsight I look at the last quarter production numbers we didn't seem to make much of a dent in the problem. So I'm leaning to 2 or 3, and given his CV leaning more to 3. Hope I'm wrong.

Queue the usual BMN abuse - there is no point quoting rising Vanadium prices and salivating at potential bumper profits if BMN can't produce it economically and in volume. We are still awaiting proof that they can.

If I look at t

Good news : unexciting, low beta, divorced from the rest of the O&G market
Bad news : unexciting, low beta, divorced from the rest of the O&G market

All - I'm not interested in persuading. Just sharing a point of view. Bear it in mind or don't. As you see fit. I wish someone had shared it with me.

Mr Bond - you are impeccably correct. Time horizons are something else to factor in. As someone else noted -n the short term the market is an opinion poll, in the longer term a set of scales. Fundamentals can go out the window in a bout of 'irrational exuberance'.

Ucohentrick - you didn't read my post. My point is that 'yes' doesn't apply to you or apply to you to the same extent as some other parties. The house plays with loaded dice (IMO).

bakuraku - why 5 years? If I went back further the picture is even more depressing for ordinary shareholders - but I didn't want to be accused of over egging the pudding.

I believe the answer is yes and no. Yes if you are a 'non controlling' interest, no if you are an ordinary shareholder.

Profits for the last 5 years = $143.2m. This has been split

$80.7m - Non controlling interests
$7.3m - Ordinary shareholders in the form of dividends (this years dividend $3.8m subject to agm approval)
$55.2m - earnings retained.

The game at GEMD seems to be - feed the non controlling interests. Then retain earnings so that bigger holes can be dug with a view to repeating the process next year. Along the way ordinary shareholders might be thrown a crumb here or there. And Clifford is 'mystified' by share price performance ?

The valuation of a company is some combination of it's break up value and/or income stream. The conclusion I've come to after analyzing my mistake is - if you are a non controlling interest GEMD is grossly undervalued, if you are an ordinary shareholder it is grossly over valued. Clifford is paid extremely well paid and I suspect he has other profitable side lines providing services to GEMD proper. He is on the gravy train and basically doesn't care.

DYOR / GLA.

I've sold out. Hopefully it will have a 'sityboy' effect for those that remain.

I'm beyond fed up waiting for a re rate that never comes. I see no catalyst for change. Maybe the rising tide of a bouyant diamond market will lift even GEMD. Who knows - but I see better opportunities elsewhere.

When I first got involved in GEMD I thought there is solid value/limited downside and the catalyst for change would come from the touted 'business transformation' initiative.

I listened to Clifford bumble through the results presentation and talk of a $110m achievement delivered in 'business transformation' contributions. I wonder - where did it go?

In the last 5 years the attributable profit to ordinary shareholders has been $5.5+26.0+2.6+13.6+14.8 = $62.5m.

In the same period 'non controlling' interests have trousered $80.7m.

It seems that ordinary shareholders at best only get a few scraps. The 'business transformation' initiative has now ended and guidance indicates that there will simply be more of the same (with a requirement to replace aging machinery).

So if I wasn't invested - would I start? No (or not much). So I'm out.

As ever they could pull some monster shiny rocks out of the rubble tomorrow.

GLA.

Good results - steady as she goes.

I'd reserve 'excellent' for another of my holdings that coincidentally reported today - CAPD