Member Info for HotblackDesiato

What a terrible thing to hit a family.

Best wishes.

Potnak - I gather Rose Street is still in disarray after your last visit ;-)

Re the Barrhead News article, as a Scot it would be remiss of me not to point out that in some parts of Glasgow the life expectancy (even without a global pandemic) is akin to a war zone. Overheard outside a funeral in Govan, "Aye, he wiz 61. No' a bad innings".

If you're asked if you want a salad, they mean chips.

Dr. Z - BMN hit 23p in Jan or Feb (seems so long ago!) but has fallen back due to institutional investors selling down. I was about £50k up (on paper anyway) back then. It will rebound as there is so much to come for BMN.

Anyway, enough about BMN as this is the SAR forum.

Don't think this has been posted already but clearly there are big pharmas looking to buy up tasty drugs. We can't be too far away!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/bristol-myers-strikes-1-6-billion-pact-for-new-cancer-fighter

Thoth - there are a number of ships (various sizes) trialling VRFB tech. Vanadium is the future & it's here now!

Apologies for being off the original topic.

Re battery tech, you might want to look at Bushveld Minerals (BMN) - S. African vanadium miner with an increasing foothold in Vanadium Redox Flow Battery technology.

I've more invested in BMN than SAR but after my very first LSE forum post asking about potentially competing flow battery technologies I was accused of being a troll by a few of the swivel-eyed loonies over there so I don't post on the BMN board. Let that be a lesson!

Good luck to all investors whatever your portfolio contains.

Could be worse, could be in twitcoin, sorry, bitcoin.

Potnak - every disaster movie starts with someone ignoring scientific advice!

I was reading in New Scientist (8/5/21) that John Burn-Murdoch at the Financial Times has compared local news reports in India to official numbers and concluded the actual number of deaths is at least 10 times higher.

The article goes on to outline the Indian first wave began March 2020, peaking in Sept and gradually declining until Feb. According to the Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation in Seattle, the second wave might already have peaked in terms of the number of cases as so many people have already been infected that the virus may start to run out of hosts.

It hasn't been formally established if India's second wave is mainly casued by the B.1.617 variant.

Sunday Times article 16/5/21 -

A landmark Oxford University study has confirmed current coronavirus vaccines work well against the Indian variant, raising hopes Britain can avoid a new wave of deaths.

Early findings from the urgent laboratory study into the B.1.617.2 strain show there is only a small loss of protection from the vaccines’ effect.

AstraZeneca and Pfizer doses still create enough antibodies to neutralise the highly contagious Indian strain and significantly diminish the risk of hospitalisation and death.

Sir John Bell, Oxford’s Regius Chair of Medicine, told Times Radio’s T&G programme: “It looks like the Indian variant will be susceptible to the vaccine in the way that others are.

“The data looks rather promising. I think the vaccinated population are going to be fine..."

Time will tell.

Sentiment and the shape of things to come, I'd guess.

Dunno who said it, but buy on sentiment and sell on news.

Anyway, enough for tonight - what's on telly?

Brighty - I'll save you the time!

NCYT 7p to 1210p in 2020 (71m shares)
ODX 7p to 126p in 2020 (183m shares)
AVCT 14p – 215p in 2020 (253m shares)
SNG 6p to 240p in 2020 (200m shares)
HEMO 1p to 15p in 2020 (524m shares)
PYC 1.5p to 10.5p in 2020 (97m shares)
YGEN 7p- 24p in 2020 (723m shares)
N4P 2p to 16p in 2020 (181m shares)
VAL 6p to 60p in 2020 (65m shares)

Shares in issue are taken as at today's date from LSE info.

It should be noted that although SAR has 3.3bn shares in issue, that should not stop the company being valued beyond £1 per share IF all their compounds prove to be world beaters. (My opinion only)

Brighty - to put your list of share price rises into perspective, would it be helpful to add shares in issue against each company?

Now that Sareum are on the LSE 'current risers' list I expect lots of interest tomorrow morning as potential investors do their homework tonight!

Not complaining about the splendid uplift in sp but I knew this would happen before I get the chance to buy more at the start of June!

It's almost as if something monumental is about to happen......

WIP et al - here's RMM post with their thoughts on this back in early Jan:

"...….There are conflicting sizes for the Parkinsons therapeutics global market size (somewhere between £2.8bn and £4.6bn). I’ve gone with the lower estimate just to be prudent. Roche have achieved annual sales of around £278m with Madopar which equates to a 10% share. If one of our molecules was to perform similarly then the lifetime value would be over £2bn. Given the stage we are at a heavily discounted (90%) value would put 7p on the current SP. Get it into P1, with good data and this could easily rise to 21p. At the higher end of the global market estimate we’d be looking at 11.5 and 34p respectively. However, this tends to pale into insignificance when you look at the Covid therapeutics market (excluding vaccines) which was estimated at £13.2bn in 2020. Given the rate of mutation this could easily double in 2021. If TYK2 was to prove effective and gain a 5% share we’d be looking at sales in the region of £1.3bn pa. However, I think a lower P/E is required as vaccines improve and the industry gets on top of the virus. On this basis discounted value today would be 6p on the SP. Get it to P1 and we’re looking at 19p on the SP beyond that it gets serious. Combined value of TYK2 - my previous estimate was around 20p for where we are currently, add on Parkinsons and Covid and we have a SP in the region of 33p today rising to 60p. Then add in FLT3 and that probably adds another 12p minimum. 737 could add another 15p once it gets kick started in anogenital. Then there’s the SKIL platform which I understand to be worth 6p. Total value today in the region of 93p..."

I think they subsequently indicated that they'd review these figures in June and repost their latest thoughts then.

WIP - very true regarding pumping the healthy full of things they don't need e.g. vitamin supplements that only create expensive urine. And then there're pain meds such as paracetemol; do you want supermarket own-brand for 45p or the flashy-packaging paracetemol for £2.49?

Anyway, if you could slip a wee note under your CEO's door alerting them to Sareum then that'd be good of you.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. I presume governments have to be seen to be doing something even if that thing is to pump the sick full of ineffective drugs.

SOG - thanks for the thorough reply.

If it all comes together we're heading north of a quid.