Times article - Covid wards empty as virus death toll plunges9 Aug 2020 01:12
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has fallen 96% since the peak of the pandemic, official data reveals.
Hospital staff are now treating just 700 coronavirus patients a day in England, compared to about 17,000 a day during the middle of April, according to NHS England.
Last week, some hospitals did not have a single coronavirus patient on their wards, with one top doctor suggesting that Britain is “almost reaching herd immunity”.
In a further sign of good news, the virus death toll in hospitals has also plummeted. On April 10, the day the highest number of deaths was announced to the nation, NHS England said 866 people had died. On Thursday last week, there were just five hospital deaths across the entire country. It represents a fall of more than 99% from the height of fatalities during the crisis.
Dr Ron Daniels, an intensive care consultant in Birmingham, one of the worst hit areas, said there had been a “huge downturn” in admissions.
Last Thursday, across three hospitals that serve more than 50% of Birmingham’s population, there were just three critically ill Covid-19 patients. “Compare that to where we were a couple of months ago, when we had almost 200 patients ventilated at any one given time, and this is a huge downturn,” he said.
Doctors and health leaders said the dramatic fall in demand means the sick should not delay in seeking help for other illnesses. There are mounting concerns over the impact lockdown has had on the wider health of millions, with cancer, heart and lung disease patients in particular hit by delays to their diagnosis and treatment.
Daniels said the figures showed there was cause to be optimistic, even with the recent rise in cases in some areas such as Aberdeen and Preston.
A future increase in hospital admissions could not be ruled out, he said, but he does not expect one. “I think that’s highly unlikely, because the pubs have been open for over a month, people have been socially interacting heavily during that time, and the natural history of this disease is that if you contract the virus and you’re going to end up in hospital, you’re pretty much in hospital within 15 days of contracting it.”
He said the reason hospital admissions and deaths were plunging is “really difficult to say with precision” but is likely due to a combination of factors, such as the most vulnerable and most likely to fall seriously ill with Covid-19 being infected “very early on in March and April”.
Another factor is that the virus may have become “less angry, less virulent”.
“There is no evolutionary advantage [to a virus] conferred by killing your host. Your desire as a virus is to replicate and you can replicate better in a living host. It may be that that is a factor. I think it quite likely that we’re almost reaching herd immunity.”
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