Member Info for Hosai

Covid effects everyone due to the lockdowns so everyone should be allowed their opinion. Every death is a tragedy but it's obviously relevant that the average covid death age is 82.4 which is above average life expectancy. Do you normally mourn the people in their 80s that die from flu every year and think "if only we had locked down". According to CDC 94% of the deaths in US had an average of 2.6 underlying health conditions (6% had none).
Obviously fear of local hospital overwhelm is a different more practical issue which was why I agreed with local restrictions but not national.

It's slightly worse than flu but not as far as the media would have you believe. Also it clearly is seasonal to a degree, hence why it disappeared in Northern Europe and US in the summer here but got worse in areas like Florida, Texas, California, Brazil and India. Now as we enter our winter it's got worse in Europe and Northern US again whereas southern US and Brazil/India are looking better in terms of deaths.

I would agree that if we have vaccinated the bulk of the vulnerable over the coming months I can't see the point in spending billions more on mass testing so people can then have a "pass" to go out and do things.

The rumour I heard a few weeks back for WW was valentines day, I think they want to release it soon but Dec might be a tiny bit too soon.
Great news about Moderna...wonder how they and pfizer got ahead of astrazenica which I thought was the first to start phase 3.

That means MS increased their stake during debt negotiations before they even knew we had a working vaccine.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eli-lilly-fda/u-s-allows-emergency-use-of-eli-lillys-covid-19-antibody-therapy-idUKKBN27P35L

"The FDA said its emergency use authorization was based on clinical trials showing that the treatment, bamlanivimab, reduced the need for hospitalization or emergency room visits in COVID-19 patients at high risk of disease progression. It can be used for treating mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults and pediatric patients over the age of 12, the FDA said."

Equally there could be people who don't trade much slightly slower on the ball just setting up accounts now for tomorrow thinking might be a good time to buy "leisure/hospitality stocks".

Do you not have to set up a margin to short TradingPace? I didn't realize it could potentially happen by selling too much with error.

That's assuming Moderna and astrazenaca vaccines don't show promise as we have millions more of those vaccines in manufacture too.

The UK will potentially have 10 million of the vaccines this year, with 2 per person that's 5 million vulnerable/elderly people vaccinated. You only really need to vaccine enough to take the fear of local hospital overwhelm away. We don't have to wait for some perfect moment where everyone has had it, it's questionable whether people in their 20s will ever choose to have it (as at their age flu is more dangerous).

Interesting Steve, the weird thing is I then bought back the -12k of shares I was at with the extra cash that had I got from supposidely "selling" this 12k worth that I never had (I was afraid I had shorted by mistake). Then did a few more small trades after this which seemed to be working despite the delay and the glitches, infact the glitch might have enriched me a tiny bit in terms of a few increased shares, not sure how this will work with HL..

Can you short on HL simply by selling the stock? I thought you had to set up a margin etc? It seemed like I may have shorted by mistake at one point as it was showing minus shares but with extra cash. I then bought back luckily after no big movements. Still not sure if I was shorting by mistake or a glitch, I thought shorting was a slightly more complicated process.

I had a similar issue with HL! Infact I'm a still a bit confused by what happened, I was trading between 2 leisure stocks as they were rising at different times. I sold one holding of around £6,000, it said it worked but nothing happened, so I sold again the same shares, then again (this was probably slightly naive in retrospect). Then my account appeared to say -£12,000 of this stock so all 3 sells had actually gone through. So I'm wondering if I was temp shorting this stock by mistake or was it just a glitch? Pretty sure shorting is a more through process than just selling as I hadn't set a margin or anything? I then bought back the amount I was supposidely negative on just incase, luckily there wasn't any big movements during this time as I was terrified I was shorting a leisure stock just after vaccine announcement! My accounts looks normal now, still have no idea what happened. Hopefully HL don't say I tried to commit a fraud.

I don't believe we would have to wait till "everyone" has had it, once you have vaccinated the age-group and vulnerability profile that are most likely to be hospitalized you get rid of the main problem of covid which was fear of hospital overwhelm. Those under 60 with no existing conditions do not need to rush for a vaccine.
If it was the risk to the individual we cared about then we would lockdown societies to stop vulnerable individuals getting the flu, but it is the risk of too many vulnerable individuals getting it in an area and causing overwhelm to hospitals which is the fundamental fear from covid which can be solved by vaccinating those most at risk and reducing their symptoms to the point where they are much less likely to be hospitalized.

I think the Dec dates will be a tiny bit too soon, but Jan is possible if they had started the vaccine programme by December. You don't have to have everyone vaccinated for things to be moving back to normal, as soon as you start vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable which they would target with first vaccines you lower the risk of any local hospital overwhelm, which is really the main reason we have restrictions.

Bond was a blow but the news was attached during the same weekend it was announced to a leak of cineworld considering and then later confirmng it was closing, aswell as a lot of market noise that is was perm closing etc. So I don't think it would be the same kind of "blow" in terms of the markets. The main thing with the markets will be covenant waivers and a vaccine or falling covid rates as this would give confidence to film studios to put their movies out.

I don't think WW being moved would be a "huge blow" there's been uncertainty around the date for ages, according to what I read a few weeks back the rumour was potentially it pushed to valentines day.

The "r" rate, which used to be the sacred metric has fallen to 1 - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/03/r-rate-has-fallen-one-raising-hopes-lockdown-can-avoided/
The metric seems to be hospitalizations, yet according to the ONS data today for the week ending Oct 23rd, there were 14 more deaths than the average in hospitals during this week. 14! https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-03/covid-19-deaths-in-england-and-wales-increasing-week-on-week
Does this suggest the rise in admissions over the last 4-6 weeks has been anything anything exceptional as we've been led to believe?

Unbelievable check this out, in Liverpool when you look at their "cases per specimen date", their cases' peaked on the 7th October and have been falling since and are now nearly half the peak - they entered tier 3 on the 14th October.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Liverpool

Cases last monday = 20,890. Today = 18,950.
Number in hospital - down
Number in ICU - down
Are we going to nationally lockdown just as infections are peaking again? Should have stayed with the local approach imo.
Potentially same thing in France week on week:
French cases Sunday 1st = 46,290. Sunday 25th = 52,010
French cases Saturday 31st = 35,641. Saturday 24th = 45,422
Obv they locked down a few days before this would be too early for the lockdown to be making a difference.