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It is misleading, people who tend to read it as financial debt and probably assume they also have lease payments to make on top of this 8 billion debt, I see this type of error made all the time in comments under newspaper articles on cineworld.

You've been on this board a while and still say they have an 8 billion debt? Don't you think this is misleading when 4 billion of this is what used to be their future lease expenses pre-lease accounting change rather than financial debt?
No-one said hospitals are empty but half of them don't have a single covid patient.

I agree I have trust in Mooky. Only problem is the other cinema owners, the AMC CEOin particular comes across weak and slightly dim and is a liability for the industry as a whole. They are thinking about the short term and not the long term with these deals with universal. I am hopeful though that post-covid universal realize these deals are not actually helping anyone - them or the cinemas. I also hope that the other CEO's relocate their balls so they do not undermine cinema as a whole, Mooky seems currently the only one still willing to play hardball.

Good post Tondy, there are 4 Avatar sequals to come out for anyone holding for the long long term, the first film made an inflation adjusted $3.34 billion at the box office. Can't see James Cameron or the producers wanting these straight to streaming.

Happy with the vaccines but the "freedom pass" is a bit much for me, how does it ever end if you have to have a freedom pass and endless mass testing which might give false positives? Once the bulk of the vulnerable have been vaccinated over the coming months covid should no longer be a top news story imo.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8971669/What-DONT-tell-Covid-facts-twisted-strike-fear-hearts.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK

*after theatrical release.

They do need cinemas, each film they're releasing now they're getting less back than if they'd released it the normal way.
Mulan was a failure. WW84 was sacrificed to try and get HBO max off the ground which is doing badly. The piracy issue is too bad to make it work, they will never get enough subscribers to make up for the lost revenue per film because subscribers are already too stretched between different streaming services.
At the moment streaming companies are helped by the fact that they can offer money now instead of studios having to wait 6 months to a year in cinemas so there is a time value of money cost to delaying. However once covid is over it will be a no-brainer for studios to release in cinema then go to pvod theatrical release.

They also "controlled the required waivers" back in May but they waived the June covenant.

You don't make any money viewing from the sidelines, you have to take some risk for any reward.

The 200 million likely to be received is in the 8th paragraph here - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-cineworld-to-ccc-05-10-2020
The 250 million they had at the end of Sept is from the Lex FT article, I don't have access to it but someone pasted it yesterday:
“Cineworld has enough liquidity to hobble into next year. Reserves were about $250m at the end of September, think S&P credit analysts. A burn rate of $50m per month during initial lockdowns may be pushed lower via CVA savings.”

An article was posted yesterday saying they had estimated $250 million at the end of Sept, and supposidely on average burn of $50 million a month when closed (though could be less than this). This would take them to the end of Feb. Therefore if they receive another 200 million they would clearly have the money to reopen with lots of headroom. This is also ignoring the $200 million they are "highly likely" to receieve in Q.2 from the US cares act according to Fitch.

Sounds like very good news to me, slightly bittersweat as I diversified a little away from cine this week from been heavily in. It's still over 50 percent of my portfolio but perhaps I timed it badly (I still thought it had a few weeks volatlity before any debt news so was trading a little in and out). I should be more happy but I guess I'm only as satisfied as my last trade and wanted to be more "in" at debt news...anyway monday should be a good day for the bulls.

That article said they had 250 million at the end of September. Assuming 50 milion cash burn a month closed that would mean enough till the end of Feb. They would be highly likely to recieve $200 million in quarter 2 from the US cares act according to Fitch. Therefore they may perhaps need a bridging loan or RI is possible some point for headroom but I don't see why they would need so much that it would be significant dilution.

The awkward thing with the vaccines is that while they are great news in the medium and long-term, in the short-term they arguably are a disincentive to places to open up as the argument would be you could wait and vaccinate a lot of people than open properly in a few months whereas if there had been no vaccine announcments there would have been a feeling of "we have to just get on with life".
Obviously I am not someone who believes we have to wait until everybody is vaccinated but around late Jan might be a good timeline for normality re-beginning as many elderly and vulnerable people could have had both doses by then. I thought WW were going to delay till valantines day which made sense to me in this way.
However perhaps equally not everything is about covid and we can't wait for some "perfect" moment for everything to open even with a vaccine now.

I like your optimism Drifty but the main problems with WW are there aren't other big films around it until The Kings Man in Feb (the rest of the year looks great) and also it would be competing with HBO max so likely to have reduced revenue. So it is a difficult decision, I actually think Mooky might take the hit on not showing WW and wait till late Jan or so.

According to Fitch Regal is "highly likely" to recieve $200 million in quarter 2 which I'm sure lenders will be aware of. Literally could have 3 vaccines in use by next month which means potentially can back to some normality in cinemas by late Jan or Feb. (only need to vaccinate the bulk of the vulnerable not everyone for a degree or normality to return imo). Nightclubs might have to wait a bit longer but places that like pubs/cinemas will be able to operate sooner.

I'd also be willing to bet it would be pirated even worse than Mulan. Mulan was a family film, WW is more targetted at teens and young adults, the most likely group not to want to pay for a film if they can. Think Warner might realize it wasn't a great idea, but I've read HBO max is struggling so warner decided to "sacrifice" the film for HBO.

Seems like cineworld is picked on slightly by the media. As is mentioned in the cineworld article in the times: "Cineworld is not alone in its travails. Its rival Odeon, Vue and Everyman chains have all appointed advisers to look at restructuring options as they fight the pandemic".

Also from the times article:
"At its half-year results in September the group said that it had raised additional liquidity of $360.8 million in the period and in a “going concern” statement it insisted that it should be able to operate under its present loan arrangements for at least 12 months. It cautioned that the covenants on its facilities were forecast to be breached at the end of December and in June and December next year, although it was negotiating waivers and expected to secure them.
Asked at its interims whether he feared for the company’s survival, Mooky Greidinger, 67, chief executive, said: “I am fully confident we can survive. There are things beyond our control, as we saw in the last six months, but we have a very good business and an excellent track record. We just need to get Covid behind us. The question is how quickly it’s going to happen.”
Cineworld is not alone in its travails. Its rival Odeon, Vue and Everyman chains have all appointed advisers to look at restructuring options as they fight the pandemic. One ray of hope on releases came last night as Warner Bros announced that it would be releasing Wonder Woman 1984 in US cinemas on Christmas Day, although the sting in the tail was that it would at the same time be streamed on HBO Max. It was not clear when the UK release might be."