Member Info for Hosai

I think they meant more £1.40 eg by end of year not on the update.

You say £1.20 like it would be bad but that would be a 34% gain on todays price.

I believe cases will be falling in a month in US no matter what happens like UK, France, Spain and Belgium is now. People always associate the falls in cases with the restrictions but it isn't obvious this is the case.
In the first lockdown deaths fell too quickly after the lockdown started (with the lag we know about) for it to have been due to the lockdown, therefore cases were falling before the lockdown.
In terms of lockdown 2 look at Liverpools cases per specimen date - they peaked on the 6th October and were falling since then but they only entered tier 3 on 14th October.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Liverpool

$200 million I mean.

Also despite the increased debt due to covid £200 million will be received that otherwise wouldn't have due to tax credits which effectively in part reduces this increased debt.

The derampers have been forced to go from "the shareholders are likely facing a 90% dilution" to there may be a 10% dilution at some point in the future though the company would receive around £63 million as a silver lining if this dilution happens.

It can if its future reopening looks far more certain and it is currently around a third of its pre-covid price (even with the 10% dilution).

I believe people don't fully trust cineworld sp after previous falls therefore panic sell when it starts falling. Ultimately for the LTH the fundamentals have changed now there iare 3 vaccines and debt waivers/liquidity. Cases are also actually falling in lots of places like Spain, France, Belgium for around a month and now the UK is falling too.
Ofcourse it will still be a few months before reopening though so price will not shoot up but I think around 75p would be the fair price currently with this wait ahead for reopening.

Because some people are convinced streaming will kill cinema, they suddenly get excited and certain they know that cinema will become like blockbuser and they short cinema companies and go long on companies that provide streaming (despite the arguments for this not appearing be very strong). So shorters will not disappear completely unless they were shorting recently.

10% dilution means pre-covid sp equivalent moves from 180p to 162p (it was actually higher than 180p at many points early this year). Doesn't seem that dramatic.

Anyone foolish enough to predict open and close tomorrow?

10% isn't that bad, though arguably means the pre-covid sp target of around 180p (if anyone has that as a target) would effectively be around 162p equivalent with the dilution. Still a multibagger.

Think the approval is mostly priced in because most people expect them to be approved, the company wouldn't put the data forward if they thought it wasn't good enough, it would hurt their company a lot if rejected. However the sentiment from it being approved could still impact things.

Cine has recently had a lot of crazy 30-40% spikes followed by a retrace to 15%-20%. The market is too aware of this, hence why I believe there will be more conservative increases, maybe 10% a day...perhaps sit in the late 60s/early 70s by end of Dec going into 2021.

Obviously the "sport" of the board could be argued to be slightly silly at times but you have to take into account the bulls have been on the backfoot for months, many held when it was in the 20s and the board was swamped with derampers laughing at the idea that cine could survive and the absurd idea that they could obtain any more debt finance and waivers. Therefore it makes sense if the bulls here now enjoy their victory today (though there will still ofcourse be many up and downs in the long-term).

Ofcourse my opinion matters little I'm just one person but equally yours matters little too. It's quite normal to question our leaders we live in a democracy.

The FT Lex column posted by Rock on Thurs said this:
"Cineworld has enough liquidity to hobble into next year. Reserves were about $250m at the end of September, think S&P credit analysts. A burn rate of $50m per month during initial lockdowns may be pushed lower via CVA savings."

I wasn't trying to have an argument/debate on covid either but just pointing out it would be appear half of the hospitals don't have a patient unless this article is outright lying. It could be misleading in some way but I doubt it's an outwright lie.

I don't in general read the daily mail, but it's one of the few papers that now regularly questions the covid narrative. Can you point me to an objective newspaper?

Your local area may be bad but it's a fact that half of the hospitals don't have a single covid patient - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8971669/What-DONT-tell-Covid-facts-twisted-strike-fear-hearts.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK