Member Info for Hosai

Cine would only reopen when movies will be released. This was already dealt a partial blow by Ireland, Italy, France and Germany closing as it makes releases less likely in the short term.

19p? Get real, the cinemas are already closed!

Not sure that's relevent, all the ones still working will still carry on working so won't receive furlough money.

It will be partially priced into most leisure stocks from when France and Germany locked down. Cine also won't be as effected as they're already closed. I do think it probably makes films like Wonder woman slightly less likely at the end of Dec but it's always been a shaky date anyway.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8899053/DR-MIKE-YEADON-Three-facts-No-10s-experts-got-wrong.html

A big shame about the potential national lockdown. However I do wonder if Boris might believe a vaccine is to come soon, otherwise I don't think he would be considering a lockdown.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/regulators-are-accelerating-reviews-of-covid-19-vaccines-from-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-according-to-a-report-11604084483
High risk to be shorting any of the covid affected stocks over the next few weeks.

Why do you "hope your wrong"?

Perhaps Bond being delayed was a blessing in disguise, helped make the decision for Mooky to close which clearly now looks like the best decision as I don't think many would have been going to cinema atm, the cases all over the news effects peoples psychology and disuades them from going out.

Cases reported last Weds = 26,684. Today = 24,701.
Cases reported Tues the 20th = 21,330. Yesterday = 22,885.
Not really doubling every week anymore...

Why would they need 500? At 50 million cash burn a month with closed cinemas that would be 10 months of liquidity. That's ignoring the 200 million they are "highly likely" to receive in quarter 2 according to Fitch.
The lenders could have decided to not waive the June 20 covenant and not lend to cineworld...why are you so certain this time they will see things differently, especially when it appears we are close to a vaccine?

TheBeerStalker whilst it's true they will have obviously taken on more debt due to covid it's worth noting that according to Fitch, Regal are "highly likely" to receive a 200 million payment from the cares act in quarter 2 due to previous tax paid which obviously they would not have received if there was no covid that will help with the added debt.

I heard a rumour that they were thinking about valentines day for wonder women, but who knows maybe they would hold. If they were thinking along vaccine lines it would be more certain a decent number of people have had both shots of vaccine by that time (assuming we had one).
It's interesting that even with streaming companies able to offer money for Bond now instead of in 6 months time with cinema (its obviously much better to receive money now) they still can't offer enough to tempt the studio. Imagine once cinemas are open again and streaming companies don't even have this advantage anymore.

Funinvestor in terms of debt for equity I guess I would say what stopped the lenders doing this in April/May? The lenders arguably had the same choice in the spring, If they were considering debt for equity as a better option why choose to waive the June covenant and give cine more liquidity?

I agree Nofear, as does Mookys brother from an article a month back "Israel and his brother Mooky, the company’s chief executive officer, own 20% of Cineworld through the family’s Global City Holdings. Greidinger said Covid-19 will eventually disappear, “and in that moment, I think that all these short people will start running away - so I suggest to them to run earlier.”

Maybe I should apply, I live about 15 mins drive from Addenbrookes. Wonder how much could get paid? If I live I could buy more cine shares...

As much as JohnT was annoying he made some good money on his short and closed it at the bottom...he didn't get greedy. Opening a short or holding after the drop seems very high risk, even more so when vaccine news could be around the corner. A silver lining of the increased cases recently is that vaccine and treatment results will come in quicker.

Mooky said in the sky news interview just over 2 weeks ago that "we have the full support of the banks that are working with us...a lot of funds". It would seem unlikely something that has happened since then would make them change stance, considering the only news since then is NY reopening and increasing vaccine positive sentiment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t9ks7Gf-eg&t=310s

Somtimes it seems like certain members of the media might be shorting cinema stocks, or perhaps it just makes a story? Firstly they always make the misleading statement that cineworld is $8 billion in debt making the average reader think "the had it coming then". Secondly they always push the argument of cinemas now losing business to the streaming companies with an air of inevitability about this as though a future transition to us watching all films in our living rooms is a foregone conclusion, despite the fact that when you actually look at the figures and issues with streaming this doesn't seem a strong argument. Again this argument gives the average reader the impression that cinema was doomed anyway, despite cineworld always making a profit pre-covid.

Debenhams would have a harder time convincing lenders of a bright future surely, what evidence could they give? Cineworld can show a list of all the backed up blockbusters and some of their improved imax/4dx/screen x upgrades.