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Don't see how it makes much difference, usually if a virus becomes more contagious they become less virulent. Still seems like the same timetable overall of waiting till the bulk of the vulnerable are vaccinated.

Slightly random topic but I've just been looking at the data and can't believe how little Asia actually tests.

Taiwan tests per 1,000 = 4.79
Vietnam tests per 1,000 = 12.95
Indonesia tests per 1,000 = 14.13
Japan tests per 1,000 = 28.4
Thailand tests per 1,000 = 19.46
South Korea tests per 1,000 = 61.99

USA tests per 1,000 = 644.43
UK tests per 1,000 = 606.54
Spain tests per 1,000 = 425.54
Portugal tests per 1,000 = 475.26
Italy tests per 1,000= 391.59
Belgium tests per 1,000 = 537.74

Wonder which of the 2 groups is more likely to have more "deaths in the last 28 days with a positive test"? (Asian people are less obese and might have more pre-existing immunity so they probably genuinely are dying from covid less too). However everyone advocating the approach of Asian countries seems to have ignored the differences in testing.

Source = https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand?time=2020-02-20..latest

Personally I predict the news from disney will be "imbetween" i.e a few more films announced as going to disney plus, plus others saved for theatrical and some talk of preserving the theatrical aspect etc, therefore perhaps not big movements either way.

https://screenrant.com/suicide-squad-2-hbo-max-release-james-gunn-response/

It doesn't seem like it's sustainable to have the bulk of directors/actors not on board.

"Denis Villeneuve, the director of “Dune,” is similarly disappointed with the HBO Max plan and would prefer a traditional theatrical release for his movie, according to insiders. The “Dune” adaptation is intended to be the first of a two-part retelling of Frank Herbert’s seminal 1965 novel. The big-budget sci-fi epic — starring Timothee Chalamet, Oscar Isaac and Zendaya — was initially greenlit with the intention of launching on the big screen. It’s too early to know if the planned sequel would follow the same rollout as the first. Other filmmakers involved in the movie are also privately unhappy with the move."
This is the problem they will run in to. The actors/directors want their work on the big screen. Eventually they would seek film companies that have assured them the film will have normal theatrical release, else the studio would have to pay them more to make up for it.

I don't normally believe that much in the "Mms keeping it down stuff" but Fridays flat line for most of the day was very strange so maybe you're right LTHcine.
The only other time I've seen cines price flat like that was just after Jangho sold a chunk back in August (not that I'm thinking this is the reason just pointing out I've only seen the cines sp flat for hours like that twice and have been following it since June when I first invested).

Ultimately for cinema it's a supplier issue. They need to find a wider selection of suppliers, other companies could step up who want to make big films for cinema and fill the gap if some of the former big players decide they want to be more about home streaming now.
I still believe the piracy is going to shock warner though starting from xmas day, they are going to struggle to get subscribers up when people are already potentially paying for netflix, amazon and disney plus. In the short term these companies might throw more of their big films onto streaming to try and win this battle but increasinly it will become diminshing returns and less gain for each film sacrificed to streaming.

Warner said they made their decision after consulting "epidemiologists". In my view these type of experts are more likely to be overly cautious/negative to cover their backs and will have said something like cinemas won't be back to normal capacity until 2022.
However in my view the rhetoeric that seems to be in some mainstream circles of we can't go back to normal until the majority of the population is vaccinated just isn't true, you really only need to vaccinate the main vulnerable groups and then the probem that is covid is no longer here. Obviously the odd younger individual would still die but the cost/benefit of the lockdown or not debate would clearly then favour no lock-downs/restrictions. This situation could easily be in place by March in places like USA and UK.

All these things you've listed were made redundant due to the replacement being able provide an alternative for the essence of what the product was, streaming at home versus cinema isn't a close enough fit/good enough replacement in this regard. These products also all had no public, social element.

But it does matter if they're not correct because when the figures start coming in for films like WW84 they may recalculate and reconsider.

Does that mean the CEOs are correct? They all want to be netflix despite the fact that unlike they netflix which for a long time was the proverbial streaming business almost everyone knew, they would now be competing with 3-4 other netflix type business'.

This is the right move, AMC were part of the problem before by giving too much ground which weakened Mooky and the industrys hand. The cinemas need to work together on this. As I said before the studio then has to explain to the director/actors why their film can't be in the big screen, this wouldn't go down well long-term.
The public and governments will be more behind the cinemas imo than streaming giants who would employ less people and many believe don't pay their fair share of taxes.

It is clear some studios THINK they are going to play around with streaming model however I think they are in for a shock when it comes to the piracy levels. Also the difficulty of getting people to pay to subscribe to yet another streaming service. Part of the Netflix/Amazons success was for a while they were the only ones in town. The figures for WW84 will be interesting.

Good point LTHcine, imagine when the figures and articles come out after xmas day talking about the amount of illegal downloads for WW84. I remember when there were articles about GOT breaking records for illegal streaming/downloads. It's quite possible these figures could be so bad that Warner rethink their strategy around easter time once covid is no longer headline news. Even the potential for building HBO max may not be deemed worth the hit they make on the lost film revenue.

The studios might toy with streaming model but how are the going to get around the piracy issue? Family/kids films might not suffer so badly from this but films like WW84/Dune will have huge numbers of illegal downloads.
Also people will get maxed out on how many different streaming services they pay for.

Once covid is over cinemas will be in a stronger position, imv they should all say they wont be showing Warners movies if they are streaming that same day, what's wrong with a 6 week-8 week wait till streaming, if streaming is so convenient surely people at home can wait?
If no cinemas agree to show their films warner have to explain to the actors/directors why their film won't be on the big screen, there will then be an exodus of talent wanting to work with warner unless they splash out extra cash.

Seems like warner are playing hardball by saying ALL their films streaming. This is where AMC screwed up by doing their deal with universal, it opened a door to this and weakened the industry as a whole. If you're going to have a theatrical window you need all the cinemas chains together almost like a trade union.
I still believe warner and other film companies that go this way will be worse off than the old way (sadly so will cinema chains obv), so it's a lose lose move. But this is why in the long term this method won't stick, but it does likely mean slightly less revenue for cine next year (assuming warner are still thinking this way by the middle/end of 2021, maybe by spring everything might feel different in terms of covid).

Wonder where Boix is...

I agree CP85, though as a cine investor I am glad that covid will now be over either way. There is a worry that lockdowns become normalized as concept in the future however.

Will be interesting to see if there is any retrace tomorrow or if it breaks into 105p. It's still far below its pre-covid sp around 275-300p. Not many other covid affected stocks have this kind of discount.