RE Paid Ramper13 Jan 2021 08:57
Good morning LifeofBrian. Here is why I suggested, if we get the go ahead, a share price of between £2-3.
Hopefully others on here can produce something as clear and concise on their prediction, not you by the way, as you are asking a genuine question.
Phulbari Asset is 570million tons of high quality coking and thermal coal.
IF we get the go ahead and mine say 12 million tons a year:
12 million x £70 (Current Newcastle thermal coal price) income of £840 million per year
6% royalty tax (-50.4 million) and 30% tax (-252 million)
Income after tax = £537 Million per year
A modest NPV of x 5 (Modest because of the massive Capital outlay of possible £3-4 Billion) gets us to £2.68 Billion. I believe by the time we have all shares weighed in we will be at 300 million shares
So 2.6 Billion/300Million gets us to £8.9p a share
If the Chinese take a massive chunk, which they will, and they supply the Capex my estimation is the shares will be worth between around a 1/3 of the above calculations. £3 ish
The figures above are not plucked out of the air like others on here think, and you can see why the Chinese are so keen on getting on board. Obviously it is all about getting the GL and everyone knows that, but if it goes the figures eye watering. PS most NPV run between 8 and 15 multiples. Thanks
GLA